As we are only on October 12th Neil , bit early to write off any blocking 

 

Not that you were , just saying for the viewing public 

Of course 😎 Just illustrating how unwise it is to pin your flags on the DJF trends in the middle of October. The release of more ECM data will probably only add to the madness - there’s more data to get frustrated with when it goes wrong.

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CFS hints at easterly influences for Nov-Dec?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html 

GFS - Ridge of HP mainly to the N with LP lurking off the S or SW until Tue 20th when LP deepens 975mb off SW Ireland  (the warmest of the S-ly winds on its flank are prominent over Europe not the UK) and hangs around for that week  until reinforced by major Atlantic depression Mon 26th with strong W-lies, and another such LP in the wings for Thu 29th

GEFS - Cool and dry to Tue 20th, then disagreement between runs but mean is close to or a little above norm and rain becomes frequent (more intermittent but heavier when it happens in Scotland)

ECM - like GFS but LP off Ireland deepens a day later and a bit closer to UK

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I see that GFS is moving closer to ECM for early next week and the GEFS shows that too. That deepening depression looks likely to bring milder southerlies for a while, although we also get hit by another wet spell in return. But it might bring a reprieve from the drop in monthly CET for a few days.

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Mid to long range looking a bit different 

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Might get some sort of Easterly out of this 

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Jetstream - loops currently over Europe and Iceland, the former breaking up, the latter moving S to become cut-off over Madeira Mon 19th. UK not directly affected by jet until Mon 19th when W-ly but another loop over Uk Thu 22nd moving SE Sat 24th; same pattern of W-ly and loop repeats Mon 26th - Fri 30th

GFS - Area of HP mainly over Scotland and LP to SW this week; after which LPs move across from Atlantic, to Shetland 1000mb Tue 20th, Hebrides 980mb Sat 24th, Scotland 995 mb Mon 26th, Cornwall 970mb Thu 29th. Much more Atlantic activity than yesterday, and the LP W of Ireland which was featuring then has been written out.

GEFS  - remaining a little below norm temps throughout with uncertainty setting in from Wed 21st; rain also setting in everywhere  from that date, more so in S than yesterday, less in Scotland

ECM - collapses the HP earlier with major LP over S Scotland 970mb Wed 21st,  moving away E-wards but another waiting in the Atlantic 965mb Sat 24th

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Already thinking the French high will play significant role in our autumn and winter

Already thinking the French high will play significant role in our autumn and winter

All I'm currently thinking is that the slack and blocked scenario threatens some quite cold weather but is likely to get blasted away by the Atlantic in mid-term.

HP over France would be OK for the south if you like cold quiet weather but that's for later

HP Returns , blocking the Atlantic ( 12 days out )

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Atlantic fights back ...............deep into FI

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16-dayer shows cool over NW Europe with the 'blue patch' well established around Finland. Rain a-plenty for the UK especially week 2. worth keeping an eye on https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif as snow cover becomes widespread further east.

GFS - different again this morning as the LP to the SW is now forecast to revive by Tue 20th and move to N Sea 980mb Thu 22nd (looks like a forecast published 36 hours back, and supported by current BBC) This hangs around and is supplemented by another trough to W which develops to 975mb NI Sun 25th again moving NE-wards across UK. Brief lull before 955mb Thu 29th NE Scotland

GEFS -  temps irregular but not far from seasonal norm from Mon 19th at which point the rain starts - lots of it, more than yesterday esp in S

ECM - very much the same as GFS

 

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Jetstream - small cut-off loop in Atlantic  now, moving (with some support from main W-ly flow) to become a loop affecting UK on its eastern side Tue 20th and dispersing by Fri 23rd when main W-ly flow resumes across UK, only to curl up into another deep loop Mon 26th. After a confused day or two but always with something of a loop over UK the stream becomes a v. strong W-ly over Scotland Sat 31st.

GFS - the LP which has been hanging around to the SW intensifies and pushes across Scotland Tue 20th with some hang-back. New deep LP 975mb NI Sun 25th, and N England 985mb Wed 28th, filling and becoming  W'SW-lies Sun 1st with large LP over Greenland.

GEFS - temps rising to norm Tue 20th and staying around that, a bit above at first, a bit below later, through to Sun 1st. Rain starts Tue 20th and doesn't give up, fairly continuous in S, more intermittent but with bigger individual totals in N.

ECM - similar to GFS but places the LP Sun 25th S Ireland only 985mb moving to Cornwall

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Oops wrong thread..

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Next week looks like a recipe for  lot more heavy rainfall. Flooding issues will reappear after a brief drier spell recently

Next week looks like a recipe for  lot more heavy rainfall. Flooding issues will reappear after a brief drier spell recently

And the potential for gales in the middle part of the week, but not all of the models are showing that (GFS as usual being keen on that while ECM is a bit more flabby). 

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And the potential for gales in the middle part of the week, but not all of the models are showing that (GFS as usual being keen on that while ECM is a bit more flabby). 

Yes - I think the obvious thing is low pressure. With an initial meridional set up the temperature differential should promote plenty of rain, especially as things will initially become "cut off" before the Atlantic fills the vacuum 

 

GFS 18z says turning unsettled during next week, and potentially stormy at times after that.

16-day summary; temps returning to near normal for time of year, but much colder not far to the north-east. Rain mostly across Scotland week 1, but large totals everywhere week 2.

GFS: LP intensifying to SW and moving up across the UK Tue/Wed 20/21st 985mb with some hang-back as yesterday; for the following week some deep LPs fairly well to the N giving a W/SW-ly airflow (but no doubt some fronts traversing the UK from time to time) until Sun 1st 960mb over Scotland and a brief N-ly blast before W-ly resumes. Signs of an ex-hurricane off New England Thu 29th which may be adding oomph to that LP on the 1st.

GEFS: a warm day Tue 20th after which not much agreement - mean of runs a little below average throughout (Scotland, an extra dip around the 22nd). Rain starts Tue 20th and persists, with suggestions of heavier stuff by end of month in the S. 

ECM: those Atlantic depressions (in bold above) closer to Scotland esp 955mb Rockall Tue 27th; also again suggestion of some possible ex-hurricanes but earlier (Mon 27th) and less definite.

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GEFS 35 day European grid available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx

Include weekly 2m temp anomaly charts for the next 5 weeks.

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