Quite blocked from ECM

Equally so from GFS

Longer term gives way to a cold flow 

LP's diving to the South

whether the winters have been quieter or stormy on the run up to the start of winter ( first two weeks of December) the fixed patterns hence have been remarkably consistent in recent years of establishing over that period.I must say the timetables for autumn starting this year almost identical to last year so theres no reason to believe this year will be any different.Obviously hope it is but since 1987 been in this place too many times to feel comforted by recent charts.But the saying cold Octobers Novembers = mild winters dont really wash if you look at 62 but obviously that followed very cold March....heres to further rollercoasters..

We had a stormy first half/two thirds (I forget) of Nov 10, with I think more flooding in the Lakes (following the devastating floods of 2009). There was one particularly wild storm that blew our trampoline (stored down the side of the house on its side) along to smash the downstairs cloakroom window,

Really?

There are far too many variables for this island to take that stance ………………….surely ?

What was the forecast for zonal winds last year , they have a huge say on out weather .

Just my opinion mate , and like you Id like the most paralysing weather possible

 

 

We had a stormy first half/two thirds (I forget) of Nov 10, with I think more flooding in the Lakes (following the devastating floods of 2009). There was one particularly wild storm that blew our trampoline (stored down the side of the house on its side) along to smash the downstairs cloakroom window,

 

Really?

There are far too many variables for this island to take that stance ………………….surely ?

What was the forecast for zonal winds last year , they have a huge say on out weather .

Just my opinion mate , and like you Id like the most paralysing weather possible

Most of what you posted wasn't by me - my quoting numptyness caused the problem

Apologies Martin 

Today's 35 dayer keeps things colder than average for much of the period. 

Today's 35 dayer keeps things colder than average for much of the period. 

Bang goes the chance to test the old 'warm October, cold winter' canard

Apologies Martin 

Hell, no worries, mate! Twas my quoting cock-up initially - and I managed to repeat the feat with my last post as well 

 

Bang goes the chance to test the old 'warm October, cold winter' fallacy

Indeed 

 

Bang goes the chance to test the old 'warm October, cold winter' canard

 I think we're long past that stage personally. Snow is snow whether it be October or April or December or January. Beggars can't be choosers.  

Day 10 blocked from GFS 

16-dayer shows cool weather for UK for the next two weeks, with some seriously cold stuff over Finland in week 2. Damp in the S week 1, more general rain later http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - the approach of HP from Atlantic deferred while LP runs SE-wards across UK on Mon bringing N-lies. By Fri 16th LP from Spain to Norway and rather weak area of HP across UK until Mon 19th when depression 985mb appears off E Scotland. This also travels SE-wards leaving behind a W-ly/SW-ly flow across UK. To finish, deep LP on Atlantic 965 mb Mon 26th pumping up warmth from the S

GEFS - In the S generally cool though closer to seasonal norm from Mon 19th after which much variability. Wet ca Tue 13th then a dry period before more general rain from Sat 17th onwards. Similar in Scotland though less certainty on temp from an earlier stage, and smaller amounts of rain.

ECM - similar to GFS at first though next week's continental LP centred further W i.e. closer to UK; but then quite different as LP drifts further W to intensify W of Biscay Tue 20th - no sign of LP off Scotland at that time

 

 I think we're long past that stage personally. Snow is snow whether it be October or April or December or January. Beggars can't be choosers.  

I feel so snow starved that snizzle depositing less that 1cm is appealing right now. Naturally if that does happen, I’ll be most annoyed it wasn’t more.

 

I feel so snow starved that snizzle depositing less that 1cm is appealing right now. Naturally if that does happen, I’ll be most annoyed it wasn’t more.

Lol totally agree on that ...a few grains settling on the rubber seal of my windscreen more than enough for me..flashbacks of the grey skies and the cold of March 2013 

Blocking a plenty throughout the 12z GFS - we all know what's going to happen once we get to November …..or maybe not this year 

120 

168

240

360

Really quite a remarkable amount of blocking in our neck of the woods for the next few weeks. Front loaded winter? Well it’s really too early but the signs are good.

yes a terrible waste of synoptics, I’m sure like last year come December 1st they will melt away only to reappear late Spring

 

yes a terrible waste of synoptics, I’m sure like last year come December 1st they will melt away only to reappear late Spring

I hope it's not the case! As our luck would have it you can clearly imagine it all going to pot by late November but fingers crossed we get at least a front loaded winter out of this. 

You're a glass empty person, mind you 

Blocking a plenty throughout the 12z GFS - we all know what's going to happen once we get to November …..or maybe not this year 

I think there was a lot of higher latitude blocking in Oct 2010...

 

 

I think there was a lot of higher latitude blocking in Oct 2010...

 

 

Ramp alert.

Jetstream still looking very unstable with the main flow throwing off loops before briefly resuming W-E; loops over Corsica Mon 12th devloping into braoader one over W Europe Wed 14th; S of Iceland Wed 15th; Madeira Mon 19th; Baltic Mon 26th. So the UK can experience the jet from almost any direction temporarily, though there is a brief straight strong NW-SE across Scotland Fri 23rd.

GFS - LP moving down N Sea Tue 13th to settle briefly over France; rather broad but weak area of HP over UK for rest of week before LP moves S over Ireland Sun 18th. New area of HP affecting all UK through to Tue 27th but tending to stand off to W so expect cool N-ly weather.

GEFS - Good agreement on consistently cool temps to Mon 19th (ca 5C below norm) after which maybe closer to norm but sudden onset of uncertainty then. Rain ca Tue 13th; dry-ish for a while, frequent instances of rain after Tue 20th but no agreement on detail. 

ECM - similar to GFS to Thu 15th but area of HP less extensive with LP hanging around W/SW of Ireland. Then quite different as LP moves across UK Wed 21st by which time HP has disappeared.

Generally, don't trust any forecast much beyond midweek