ECM 240 Shows the blocking that's in agreement with the Met update 

I seem to recall that there was a marked tendency to blocking last October also until some point in November when the Atlantic started to crank up.

---

 

I seem to recall that there was a marked tendency to blocking last October also until some point in November when the Atlantic started to crank up.

indeed almost as soon as Nov ended Atlantic cranked up, who knows if it will be different this year. If you want a cold one the best thing is hope as no model can predict!!

hopefully we get some decent cold early on 

 

I seem to recall that there was a marked tendency to blocking last October also until some point in November when the Atlantic started to crank up.

There was , lets hope its not a repeat , hopefully the forecast of a quieter Atlantic will help our cause ?

---

Lets hope this can continue 

---

Lets hope this can continue 

 

for 4 months would be ideal

---

I may have missed it, but I'm surprised nobody is talking about the possible impacts of the recently arrived La Nina event on our winter.

This is worth a read ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/ 

---

I may have missed it, but I'm surprised nobody is talking about the possible impacts of the recently arrived La Nina event on our winter.

This is worth a read ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/

 

"Europe is expected to have warmer than average temperatures over most of the continent...

...The British Isles and Scandinavia could have more unsettled winter, as the jet stream positions over these regions, bringing behind more stormy weather."

 

Triffic 

---

I may have missed it, but I'm surprised nobody is talking about the possible impacts of the recently arrived La Nina event on our winter.

This is worth a read ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/

Personally I wouldn't bother with any website, app or social media that has words like "severe, snow, thunderstorm" in its title. I could be doing a disservice. 

---

 

Personally I wouldn't bother with any website, app or social media that has words like "severe, snow, thunderstorm" in its title. I could be doing a disservice. 

Actually it's a reasonable analysis and their forecast doesn't mention any of the words you've quoted.

Their summary says 'Europe is expected to have warmer than average temperatures over most of the continent.'

They look at the ECM, UKMO and CFS seasonal models and the European models point towards high pressure to the south or south-east. One chart looks horribly like the result of a repeated Bartlett pattern, although of course it's a 3-month snap shot.

 

---

quote=Gooner;1263672]

 

There was , lets hope its not a repeat , hopefully the forecast of a quieter Atlantic will help our cause ?

whether the winters have been quieter or stormy on the run up to the start of winter ( first two weeks of December) the fixed patterns hence have been remarkably consistent in recent years of establishing over that period.I must say the timetables for autumn starting this year almost identical to last year so theres no reason to believe this year will be any different.Obviously hope it is but since 1987 been in this place too many times to feel comforted by recent charts.But the saying cold Octobers Novembers = mild winters dont really wash if you look at 62 but obviously that followed very cold March....heres to further rollercoasters..

---

quote=Gooner;1263672]

 

There was , lets hope its not a repeat , hopefully the forecast of a quieter Atlantic will help our cause ?

whether the winters have been quieter or stormy on the run up to the start of winter ( first two weeks of December) the fixed patterns hence have been remarkable consistent in recent years of establishing over that period.I must say the timetables for autumn starting this year almost identical to last year so theres no reason to believe this year will be any different.Obviously hope it is but since 1987 been in this place too many times to feel comforted by recent charts.But the saying cold Octobers Novembers = mild winters dont really wash if you look at 62 but obviously that followed very cold March....heres to further rollercoasters..

 

 

The weather doesn't have a memory , I'm certainly not a subscriber to pattern matching , actually far too many ingredients to our weather to say X year will be the same as because ………...

---

There was , lets hope its not a repeat , hopefully the forecast of a quieter Atlantic will help our cause ?

whether the winters have been quieter or stormy on the run up to the start of winter ( first two weeks of December) the fixed patterns hence have been remarkably consistent in recent years of establishing over that period.I must say the timetables for autumn starting this year almost identical to last year so theres no reason to believe this year will be any different.Obviously hope it is but since 1987 been in this place too many times to feel comforted by recent charts.But the saying cold Octobers Novembers = mild winters dont really wash if you look at 62 but obviously that followed very cold March....heres to further rollercoasters..

In 62 most or nearly all months were below CET IIRC. This year the only below average month so far is July and that was marginal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

October may finish below par but it's still too early to call. Nonetheless, the La Nina pattern is thought to increase the chances of cold snaps in late autumn and early winter so there is some interest for coldies.

---

quote=Gooner;1263672]

 

There was , lets hope its not a repeat , hopefully the forecast of a quieter Atlantic will help our cause ?

whether the winters have been quieter or stormy on the run up to the start of winter ( first two weeks of December) the fixed patterns hence have been remarkably consistent in recent years of establishing over that period.I must say the timetables for autumn starting this year almost identical to last year so theres no reason to believe this year will be any different.Obviously hope it is but since 1987 been in this place too many times to feel comforted by recent charts.But the saying cold Octobers Novembers = mild winters dont really wash if you look at 62 but obviously that followed very cold March....heres to further rollercoasters..

 

We had a stormy first half/two thirds (I forget) of Nov 10, with I think more flooding in the Lakes (following the devastating floods of 2009). There was one particularly wild storm that blew our trampoline (stored down the side of the house on its side) along to smash the downstairs cloakroom window,

 

---

My view is that the global climate systems have been put through so much stress through increased meltwater, heating of oceans and warming at the poles since 2000 (to pluck a somewhat arbitrary date), that the patterns and old linkages that were viable in the latter twentieth century have now ceased to be relevant in a climate that is warming rapidly and a climate in the UK that is increasingly susceptible to getting weather patterns stuck in a rut.

Unfortunately the only new pattern that does appear to have much reliability is that favourable signs in November are replaced by dire Atlantic driven weather for the rest of the winter months.

---

Warming trend appearing the 16 day 12z GEFS output.

 

Compared with the current GEFS35 (which is actually yesterday's still)

 

---

Yes, it looks like we may be back up to average on about 9 days time (although the ECM is less encouraging).

---

Yes, it looks like we may be back up to average on about 9 days time (although the ECM is less encouraging).

Yes, I was slightly surprised to see Brian's post because the outlook has the potential to be rather cool. As you say ECM has quite a decent signal for blocking over the Greenland area by Day 10:

 

---

Jetstream - still in looping mode - big loop over N Sea Sun 11th moving S at first but  becoming a rather tanged cut-off low icovering most of Europe Wed 14th interacting with a narrower loop from the Atlantic which takes over and forms a cut-off in Biscay Sat 17th also mving off S-wards. Then a more or less usual W-ly jet over or close to UK to Sun 25th, though waving about so affecting N and S Britain by turns.

GFS - N-S Ridge of HP for a few days being displaced N-wards by LP over Low Countries Wed 14th and as that LP tracks SW-wards to Spain, ridge becomes aligned W-E over Scotland. Atlantic re-asserts itself Wed 21st with LP north of SCotland generating secondaries which cross S UK Sat 24h and promise to become the major LP centre thereafter with deep LP winding up W of Cornwall Sun 25th

GEFS - Much as yesterday; cool at first recovering to norm with reasonable agreement between runs to Mon 19th, after which much variation but hints of a cool down to Sun 25th. Rain from Tue 13th onwards, some large falls in various runs for the S, less dramatic in Scotland but still not agreeing well with the idea of a ridge there (as per GFS).

ECM - similar to GFS but LP hangs around SW Britain Mon 19th rather than tracking off to Spain

---

First London snow row....

---

First London snow row....

We've had at least two already :)

---