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Now looking like peak 850s could be around 12/13 Aug.
Yes I just mentioned in the record temps thread that it looks like the start of the heat has been moderated slightly but it maintains a blistering level for longer - a full week of 30C+ heat looks very likely, with maybe 5 days of 35C+.
It's hard to believe that as I look out at the dank grey cloud outside this morning though!
PS Brian have you had site problems this morning? I tried to access around 9am and couldn't get on the site.
Some pretty high CAPE values over the country at certain times during next week. Expecting some very heavy localised downpours which might provide flash flooding in one or two areas.
Could be perfect weather week, it was hinted at a long time back as well
Is the 06z GFS the hottest operational run in the history of TWO?
Surely a contender?
Probably level with 2003 I think.
I wonder if a Level 4 Heatwave warning will be issued?
BBC website forecast for here next week shows a total washout most days.
Last few GFS runs have been characterised by a lot of PPN in UK/France during the next 7-10 days despite high pressure over much of NW Europe. From the midpoint in the runs, that PPN risk expands into the rest of western/central Europe whilst diminishing over the UK from the north to the south.
There was a problem with one of the servers this morning for about 30 minutes.
My experience with that is wait a few hours and you might get something that looks rather more promising, it chops & changes around so much. It's fine for the broader picture and trends but for the weather on any specific day, it's pretty useless.
Looking like a stand off between the metoffice and GEFS. Latest met extended forecast mentions fairly strong signals for unsettled weather with below average temperatures, but closer to average in southeast.GEFS looking rather dry, and very warm with average 850's fluctuating between the 10-15C marks.Who will change their tune in the near future - I'm betting on the met changing their tune.
Looks like you were right here about Met- but GEFS have also had a change of heart, so both.
This illustrates for all to see, just what a difference a week makes- underlying signals are larger scale than those which can predict regional weather. A reminder not to write off, or write on, anything too early (not meaning you here Pictures!)
Arpege says close but no cigar. Still bloody awful heat though
That is an excellent image to back up what I posted yesterday (in support of Retron) in the Regional Climate Shift thread about the continental influence on the climate of the far SE, especially Kent, Essex, and Sussex, and generally SE of the Chilterns.
The answer to my question is no, the 12z GEM is the hottest operational run in the history of TWO.
Nowhere near, surely?
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=2&mode=9&archive=0
Barely a 33 to be seen over the UK...
(The hottest run is of course the NOGAPS from a few years back which happily showed 42s and 43s over the UK... of course, being NOGAPS it was way off!)
EDIT: I misremembered. It was NAVGEM, the dodgy son of NOGAPS. Click for full-size.
Nowhere near, surely?http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=2&mode=9&archive=0Barely a 33 to be seen over the UK...(The hottest run is of course the NOGAPS from a few years back which happily showed 42s and 43s over the UK... of course, being NOGAPS it was way off!)EDIT: I misremembered. It was NAVGEM, the dodgy son of NOGAPS. Click for full-size.
GEM doesn’t do accurate max temperatures, it is usually at least 5C off with its numbers. I’m going on 850s.
Amusingly I have that same Navgem max temp map saved on my phone! But they don’t count.
Arpege 12z is probably the hottest run I've seen. It has 36,36,36,37 for the next 4 days. Monday now a day to watch too.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=99&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C
Arpege 12z is probably the hottest run I've seen. It has 36,36,36,37 for the next 4 days. Monday now a day to watch too.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=12&charthour=99&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C
We’re living in historic times Brian. But I bet your site clicks and bandwidth aren’t reflecting that yet are they? This heatwave seems to be sneaking up on Britain unawares. Even this forum remains October-quiet.