Seems really unsettled with heavy rain showers and Thunderstorms next week ?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

GFS has almost dropped next weeks drop in 850s, but instead has really ramped the rainfall spikes. Will probably moderate those closer to the time as well.

Poor from the GFS.

GFS always seems to massively overdo convective rainfall. Yes I am sure there will be some big downpours around but I don't think those rain spikes should be seen as representative over a wide area.

I'm liking the pattern for the week after next on that GFS run, as I am going to the Lake District. High pressure would be most welcome.

Well up to 237 hrs GFS 06z is rather lovely. Hot for several days with no real cool down, then chance of a few thunderstorms from midweek, then a freshening but with high pressure. Hope it's indicative of GEFS too.

The options for CSEngland average out at the surface from Friday to Wednesday, in °C, as follows:

32   31   29   30   31   30

I accept that the mean is only a mathematical output from everything thrown in, but it reflects a signal and saves me having to list all the hot outcomes individually- there are plenty! For example, on Tuesday 11th, there are no less than 14 Ps suggesting 32°C+ here.

Just spoke to a large baling contractor and he gets a private forecast at this time of year and that was turning much wetter in the south next week. I think he said the north would be drier though.

Just spoke to a large baling contractor and he gets a private forecast at this time of year and that was turning much wetter in the south next week. I think he said the north would be drier though.

Aah - That'll be Moomin 

Seriously though, there are some good thundery options for the south next week although that probably means huge rainfall variation

 

I'm liking the pattern for the week after next on that GFS run, as I am going to the Lake District. High pressure would be most welcome.

I sincerely hope you get great weather! 

 

Aah - That'll be Moomin 

Seriously though, there are some good thundery options for the south next week although that probably means huge rainfall variation

 Yes i see what he meant now with a thundery low over Biscay and plenty of heat, could be some big storms coming up from the south which has not really happened yet this year.

 

 

I sincerely hope you get great weather! 

12Z is not quite as HP dominated but not bad for the most part.

GFS 12z op a cool outlier from mid next week onwards. Quite a marked outlier, no ENS support. But that's been the case (op much cooler than the pack) frequently throughout this summer.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Not very often you get to see the 22C isotherm over the UK!

GFS 12z op a cool outlier from mid next week onwards. Quite a marked outlier, no ENS support. But that's been the case (op much cooler than the pack) frequently throughout this summer.

(Crocodile Dundee voice on)

That’s not an outlier. This is an outlier. 

Liking the ECM this evening

Not so keen - a bit Easterly and then the bubbling low moves in next week. 

Jetstream from the S at the moment but non-existent anywhere the UK from Saturday until Tue 18th when it resumes W-ly close to the N of Scotland

GFS - Ridge of HP from Azores to Norway persists with high temps until Tue 18th when the Norway end of it collapses, and the Azores end moves to become centred over the Low Countries Sat 22nd. Continental LP pushes up against the ridge from time to time affecting only the S, most notably Fri 14th.

GEFS - Temps in the S v.high to Fri 14th (7-8C above norm) then sharply dropping to close or even a bit below norm. Some rain irom Tue 11th onward, no clear pattern. Scotland and the N similar but slower to warm up, not reaching the high temps until Mon 10th.

ECM - also has ridge in place but like yesterday shows it as  more of a twin-centre feature with the UK under a col and the Continental LP more prominent

Saturday starting to come into Play for record temperatures I think. Brian alluded to this earlier in the week. 850s could be up a degree on Friday. One to watch I feel.

Arpege says close but no cigar. Still bloody awful heat though