Has Wettterzentrale crashed? The GFS 12z seems to have stopped updating.

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Has Wettterzentrale crashed? The GFS 12z seems to have stopped updating.

Annoying. It’s there on other sites including TWO, but I do like the wetterzentrale visualisations. Shows what now looks like a possible form horse which is cool down on Sunday and Monday with secondary high, then warm up midweek as flabby low pushes up from France. Looks potentially quite thundery. GEM similar and UKMO hunting that way.

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Well Wetterzentrale is still stuck but the GEFS is an upgrade from this morning. We've gone from a peak then rapid decline, through a peak then smaller second peak, to now a plateau with small peaks at either end. Need to lose those 4 cool straddlers now (plus the op, which doesn't show on the ens after 93hrs but I think was a cool wet outlier).

 

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ICON first out of the blocks today shows a prolonging of the hot spell. Will others follow suit? We will know by 8pm.

ECM often follows ICON IME.

ECM30 updated today and it's shockingly hot across much of W Europe. If it's on the money August will be going down as one of the all time classics in the the southern half of the UK. Could be different as you head northwest. 

Arpege 12z going for 37C this Friday.

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The zoomed in ICON EU is now going for 34C this Friday. I'd pencilled slower progression of the cool air this weekend and Saturday as the day to watch. I'm now wondering whether Friday may be enough. 

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Well Friday was enough last week. Similar evolution again with barely 30 on Thursday and big heat on Friday. Hopefully this time we get a more prolonged one though. Shame it’s not peaking at the weekend. Best heatwaves ramp up on Thurs-Fri, peak on Sunday and have a bonus final hot day on bank holiday Monday.

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ECM often follows ICON IME.

ECM30 updated today and it's shockingly hot across much of W Europe. If it's on the money August will be going down as one of the all time classics in the the southern half of the UK. Could be different as you head northwest. 

Arpege 12z going for 37C this Friday.

Aperge was on the money last week. When do we start getting Arome coming through?

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EC12 should be very hot for Wed/Thu next seek. 

EC12 should be very hot for Wed/Thu next seek. 

 

Indeed 20c 850s back again in the SE.

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ECM goes massively Pete Tong day 9 seems unlikely evolution from day 8. 

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Let’s remember that the GFS was showing 33-34C last week and we got the third hottest day ever recorded.

Arome and Aperge are the models to watch.

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Indeed 20c 850s back again in the SE.

40C possible? 

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ECM 12z goes for a northerly towards the end of the run.

Still much uncertainty about how things play out as we go into next week, by the looks of it.

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40C possible? 

 

I'd say 35c ish for the SE as it's an easterly.  

It has 34c for Friday remember it was 5c too low last Friday.

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I'd say 35c ish for the SE as it's an easterly.  

It has 34c for Friday remember it was 5c too low last Friday.

I wonder why they got it so wrong last week. I wonder if local conditions just pushed the temperature up. I hope it’s out again this week.

I want the record 

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Brian, I get the feeling your hinting that you might nail to the post a call for the record?

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I wonder why they got it so wrong last week. I wonder if local conditions just pushed the temperature up. I hope it’s out again this week.

I want the record 

 

I think we will just miss the record but it should be in the top 5 hottest days ever . Pretty extraordinary to have two top 5 days with in a week of each other.

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Brian, I get the feeling your hinting that you might nail to the post a call for the record?

I wouldn't be surprised if a new record is set but I think we'll probably fall short. The other angle is people are now openly discussing when 40C will be recorded in the UK.

PS: ECM 12z wasn't the hottest in the ensemble.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=12&lg=850&lglocation=london

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I wouldn't be surprised if a new record is set but I think we'll probably fall short. The other angle is people are now openly discussing when 40C will be recorded in the UK.

PS: ECM 12z wasn't the hottest in the ensemble.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=12&lg=850&lglocation=london

A top five in successive weeks will be astonishing even if we don’t get the overall record.

On that link Brian, which scale is correct. There are two shown on the right.

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A top five in successive weeks will be astonishing even if we don’t get the overall record.

On that link Brian, which scale is correct. There are two shown on the right.

I think the left one which shows 0 to 22 but am not sure why it plotted 2 scales TBH.

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