Looking beyond the 'heat record' jizzfest for SE'ers, there's an interesting pattern emerging of pressure being persistently high just to the north of the British Isles. Models are mostly not showing a particularly dry spell for any prolonged period, sadly, with latest GFS, for instance, wanting to position a horrible low over the southern half of the UK, spinning fronts northwards, but the general set up reminds me of the first half of the 2018 summer, where persistent easterlies gave the best weather in the west.

I'd love a bone dry August from here on out. 

---

ECM goes massively Pete Tong day 9 seems unlikely evolution from day 8. 

Seems plausible, the models have regularly shown a deep low arriving around Aug 13/14th and sticking around as that’s the time I’m heading north on my hols. 

---

Brutally hot UKMO this morning. 

---

Brutally hot UKMO this morning. 

Really? I don't see what you see tbh.

---

Looking beyond the 'heat record' jizzfest for SE'ers,

Trust me, there are plenty of us for whom it's not a "jizzfest" - temperatures that high aren't fun with our buildings which really aren't designed for it! Thank goodness for a/c, is all I can say. (Similar temperatures abroad tend to be in areas used to the heat.)

Anyway, the Met Office's raw output continues to be warmer for longer than the other models are showing.

For example, MetO has the following highs for Heathrow from tomorrow:

28 / 37 / 33 / 30 / 31 / 33

The ECM, meanwhile, has the following instead: (https://weather.us/forecast/7284876-heathrow/ensemble/euro)

25 / 32 / 24 / 26 / 24 / 27

GFS is all over the place, of course, but the 0z shows:

27 / 32 / 27 / 23 / 23 / 26

ECM and GFS are broadly similar. The Met Office? Far, far warmer... It's as if it's running at a much higher resolution (like AROME etc), but AFAIK UKV doesn't go out that far!

 

---

Really? I don't see what you see tbh.

You don’t think this will deliver exceptional heat?

---

 

You don’t think this will deliver exceptional heat?

In the extreme southeast yes....But i didn't actually have a link to the 850s. They are hot for sure, moreso south and east of London. But GFS, and ECM are much cooler.

 

Edit. The 0z ECM is certainly hotter.

---

 

Trust me, there are plenty of us for whom it's not a "jizzfest" - temperatures that high aren't fun with our buildings which really aren't designed for it! Thank goodness for a/c, is all I can say. (Similar temperatures abroad tend to be in areas used to the heat.)

Anyway, the Met Office's raw output continues to be warmer for longer than the other models are showing.

For example, MetO has the following highs for Heathrow from tomorrow:

28 / 37 / 33 / 30 / 31 / 33

The ECM, meanwhile, has the following instead: (https://weather.us/forecast/7284876-heathrow/ensemble/euro)

25 / 32 / 24 / 26 / 24 / 27

GFS is all over the place, of course, but the 0z shows:

27 / 32 / 27 / 23 / 23 / 26

ECM and GFS are broadly similar. The Met Office? Far, far warmer... It's as if it's running at a much higher resolution (like AROME etc), but AFAIK UKV doesn't go out that far!

 

The UKMO 0z is absolutely horrific on Friday and Saturday. Deeply unpleasant on Sunday and Monday. And then turning horrific again mid week.

---

Subtle changes in this EC run make for higher temps throughout with 6-7 days of 30s. Some very warm nights next week too.

Highest gridpoint temps starting from tomorrow in this run: 29, 32, 32, 31, 34, 34, 34, 27.

Really? I don't see what you see tbh.

I expect you’re “looking at a cached version” again....

---

ECM turns up the heat again looks like low to mid 30s back Monday to Wednesday. 

---

Subtle changes in this EC run make for higher temps throughout with 6-7 days of 30s. Some very warm nights next week too.

Highest gridpoint temps starting from tomorrow in this run: 29, 32, 32, 31, 34, 34, 34, 27.

 

Wow and you can normally add 2 or 3c.

 

---

Besides the MetO above, the BBC last night was in general agreement, though with a welcome suggestion of thunderstorms midweek next week (Never mind the spectacle, we need the rain!)

GFS: The long-predicted SW-NE ridge of HP setting up tomorrow and persisting to Tue 11th when LP drifts up from the S and the ridge retreats to the Atlantic Thu 13th though still affecting the UK and re-establishing with a more W-E orientation Mon 17th. LP continues to flirt with southern UK from time to time; likewise E coasts occasionally affected by cool breeze of the N Sea when the HP is weaker.

GEFS: In the S, temps like yesterday with 5-7C above average to Thu 13th, then return to a little above norm to Fri 21st. Some much bigger spikes of rainfall Sun 9th - Mon 17th but no agreement between runs as to when. In Scotland consistently above average though not as extreme as S England, and a brief dip below normal Sun 9th. Again intermittent random spikes of rain, not so big as further S. N England in between.

ECM; keeps the original ridge of HP in place to Sat 15th but more aligned over the north of the UK, with more definite incursions of LP affecting the S from time to time.

---

Definitely the best spell of the summer coming up with some consistent high temperatures. Hopefully losing that nagging cool NW wind for a while too.
Whilst this time the extreme heat is a SE only thing, looks like some nice weather across many parts.

---

 

I expect you’re “looking at a cached version” again....

Nope, I was still looking at the slightly cooler 12z from yesterday. I forget the timings in BST! Not making a kneejerk reaction this time Matty, just not telling the time properly 🤣🤣

---

Seems that things have trended back to a more prolonged hotter spell, more so in the south.

Looking beyond the 'heat record' jizzfest for SE'ers, there's an interesting pattern emerging of pressure being persistently high just to the north of the British Isles. Models are mostly not showing a particularly dry spell for any prolonged period, sadly, with latest GFS, for instance, wanting to position a horrible low over the southern half of the UK, spinning fronts northwards, but the general set up reminds me of the first half of the 2018 summer, where persistent easterlies gave the best weather in the west.

I'd love a bone dry August from here on out. 

After the deluge we had here yesterday and other recent wet weather, we could sure do with a fairly length dry spell here Saint. A repeat of the set-up that was commonplace during June and for much of July 2018 would be very welcome here!

---

06zs so far looking similar to 00z. ICON a bit hotter, GFS up to Sat pretty identical if not a tad hotter on Sat.

The real fly in the ointment with all models at the moment seems to be cloud amounts (ie North Sea muck) and cool marine layer next week. Hence low maxes especially in the Midlands despite high 850s. Similar to the situation in late June last year. Low cloud is notoriously hard to model so temps could be all over the place particularly on Monday-Wednesday.

---

The real fly in the ointment with all models at the moment seems to be cloud amounts (ie North Sea muck) and cool marine layer next week.

Yes, that was the main difference between the 12z and 00z runs of the ECM and it made for a difference of 6-7C on some days. 

Well up to 237 hrs GFS 06z is rather lovely. Hot for several days with no real cool down, then chance of a few thunderstorms from midweek, then a freshening but with high pressure. Hope it's indicative of GEFS too.

---