Looking like a stand off between the metoffice and GEFS.

Latest met extended forecast mentions fairly strong signals for unsettled weather with below average temperatures, but closer to average in southeast.

GEFS looking rather dry, and very warm with average 850's fluctuating between the 10-15C marks.

Who will change their tune in the near future - I'm betting on the met changing their tune.

It would be long overdue to have a cracking August, and may go some way to repairing the damage of a disappointing summer for sure. Plus, of course, we have had some good Septembers in recent years too.

I think if August is decent then this summer will go down as a pretty good one. Perhaps a time unlike winter where being south of the M4 is a benefit - it's been pretty dry, sunny and warm since late March down here, with only a few blips. I appreciate that those further north may have a different view.

I'd like the settled conditions to spread north next month as I am going to the Lake District and (hopefully) Wales.

And yes, I think it's likely the Met will change their tune. Ironic as they have been talking about signals for settled weather for weeks now, and they've only recently changed to an unsettled August, just before the models swing warmer 

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It would be long overdue to have a cracking August, and may go some way to repairing the damage of a disappointing summer for sure. Plus, of course, we have had some good Septembers in recent years too.

August is the quintessential summer month.

 

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Highs of only 17c in parts of Scotland on Friday. Disappointing away from the N/S/E and W.

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Jetstream - after the current southerly burst, the jet resumes a generally westerly course though often fragmented and indeed almost non-existent around Sun 9th.

GFS - after Friday's southerly, back to a general weak westerly pattern  By Sun 9th a broad area of HP across UK though what looks like storm Isaias needs watching - it appears off New England on Tue 4th and drifts into mid-Atlantic with presumably amounts of moisture. LP develops near Iceland Tue 11th and runs SE to N Sea Fri 14th pushing the HP back W-wards and a cool spell but HP looks as if it will re-establish afterwards.

In contrast to GFS FAX embeds a distinct LP across S England on Monday 3rd, BBC last night said that their model which included this was in conflict with other unspecified models e.g. GFS, and FAX also has another deeper depression not shown on GFS  on the Atlantic at that time.

GEFS - quite cool around Mon 3rd with a little rain (less than yesterday) in the S and back to norm Thu 6th after which most runs on the warm side for about  a week but with greatly more variation between runs than yesterday. Scotland - a flatter temp profile with less variability but same trend and a little rain throughout. Variability presumably linked to Isaias.

ECM - more of a trough on Sat 1st as heat departs, less of an LP across the S on Mon 3rd, stronger W-lies to follow (a development of the FAX LP on the Atlantic?) morphing into another plume by Sun 9th - but Isaias doesn't show up at all! 

An interesting mixture and I'm left with the feeling that anything could happen!

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Second week of August continues to look warm and settled. Wouldn't be surprised to see some agencies reshaping their mid term forecasts today.

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Maybe I'm missing something, but from the GFS & ECM op runs I'm seeing at the moment, there still doesn't seem to be any clear and consistent indication of a more prolonged settled spell yet.

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Maybe I'm missing something, but from the GFS & ECM op runs I'm seeing at the moment, there still doesn't seem to be any clear and consistent indication of a more prolonged settled spell yet.

That's cos you should be looking at P2 of the GEFS 

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That's cos you should be looking at P2 of the GEFS 

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Indeed - my nuts went a bit crispy when I saw that 

Look at this! Look at this. GFSP 06z for tomorrow.

(Charts may not always appear here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx)

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Shades of 1 July 2015 about tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what temps are doing by 8am.

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Duplicate post

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Look at this! Look at this. GFSP 06z for tomorrow.

(Charts may not always appear here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx)

Blimey! The thermometer soon shoots up when there is an 'ordinary' heatwave synopsis these days. I mean normally you would expect something like 30-32 C, but 36 C?!

Very hot GEM 12z multiple 90f days.

 

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Very hot GEM 12z multiple 90f days.

 

A shame its the GEM, but that looks incredible. GFS is also good, but a lot more sensible in terms of temperature. Mid to upper 20s at best, which after the disappointing first two months of summer will do just fine.

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Hot looking GEFS. Op was one of the cooler runs.

 

 

 

 

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There are several record breaking GEFS runs tonight. But there have been a number of times in the last few years and they’ve never happened, including in the otherwise incredible summer of 2018. I suppose one day one of them will have to happen.

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Evening probability forecasts suggest a v warm / hot period starting around Aug 5th & lasting until mid month. *Some* of the runs suggest records could be challenged. Note: This does NOT currently tie in with forecasts from some other agencies https://t.co/bO5dJrQpxg pic.twitter.com/uiU1WYLL1B

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 30, 2020

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The iPhone forecast app is picking up on something - I can never quite work out which model it uses as it doesn’t seem to follow GFS. Anyway it is now showing 29/30C in London for the weekend after this one.

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