Give me 29-30c over 36c any day. Bank!

---

GFS 12z. The breakdown continues. Now going westerly by Tuesday (but still hot, just about).

---

So what happened to the week long heatwave?

---

So what happened to the week long heatwave?

Looks like at least 6 days of 30C somewhere (Thurs to Tues), with 28.4 this Wed. So that’s pretty much a week long heatwave despite the downgrades. Hopefully Wed can eke one more hot day out. 

---

Tonight’s GEFS is OK, with a spike of (thundery) rain mid next week but then return to drier conditions. Not as persistently wet as previous ensembles.

 

---

Tonight’s GEFS is OK, with a spike of (thundery) rain mid next week but then return to drier conditions. Not as persistently wet as previous ensembles.

 

Considering 24 hours ago the GEFS showed 850s flatlining till Thursday before any breakdown at all they are a bit of a kick in the teeth though.

---

 

Considering 24 hours ago the GEFS showed 850s flatlining till Thursday before any breakdown at all they are a bit of a kick in the teeth though.

Just imagine the current 850s are 14C. Then we’re still flatlining until Thursday at a very hot level. 

---

UKMO looks hotter than GFS.

UKMO looks hotter than GFS.

So does ECM. But more unsettled.

---

 

Just imagine the current 850s are 14C. Then we’re still flatlining until Thursday at a very hot level. 

That's still a huge climbdown in 24 hours. I guess it was always too good to be true. 

---

 

So does ECM. But more unsettled.

Yes it becomes more unsettled as the week goes on. Would still deliver some very high temps during the early part of the week I feel.

 

That's still a huge climbdown in 24 hours. I guess it was always too good to be true. 

More like it’s GFS being, well, GFS. That model had all the heat swept away for the weekend a few days ago, and was being lauded by certain folk.

Oh no, how will you cope with 29 C in the SE? 😂😂 Meanwhile the rest of the UK enjoys the usual 18-23 C

---

Looks like a steady 18 or 19 C for Edinburgh for the next week. Storms unlikely, quite sunny and fresh.....normal summer conditions

---

GFS - maintains the ridge of HP SW-NE with W'lies across Scotland but LP moving up from S and linking with LP from the N to give N'ly flow down N Sea Fri 14th before HP re-establishes from SW lasting to Fri 21st before W'lies become dominant across Scotland and eventually further S Sun 23rd

GEFS - In the S temps dropping form ca 7C above normal back to about normal Thu 13th and staying there. Best chance of rain around the 13th, occasional spikes after this. In Scotland, a smaller peak around Tue 11th declining more gradually to around normal or just above from 14th. Rain peak on 13th as in S but additionally around 11th.

ECM - LP from S is more definite and centred over UK Fri 14th without the N-ly connection. LP from Atlantic moves in Tue 18th and puts a quicker end to the warm spell.

Fax hasn't given up on LP in the Channel and shows E-lies until middle of next week, when an interesting (? aka stormy) cold front moves in from W

---

Slight upgrade for next week on ECM and GFS this morning. GFS has heat just about hanging on into Wednesday in E Anglia. ECM keeps it very hot, but increasingly wet, all week.

---

Slight upgrade for next week on ECM and GFS this morning. GFS has heat just about hanging on into Wednesday in E Anglia. ECM keeps it very hot, but increasingly wet, all week.

 

I'm liking the way GEM ends significant push from the Azores high and another heatwave incoming.

 

---

TMS said it was 32c in the Vale of Belvoir yesterday (Aggers’ wife was hitting the rose). Surely shume mistake??

---

GFS ensembles have reverted to the flatline. With less of a cliff edge.

---

GFS ensembles have reverted to the flatline. With less of a cliff edge.

Indeed, op a big outlier with a low pressure forming over us on Wed-Thurs (though consistent with ICON and similar evolution to ECM00z and GEM).

---