GFS 06z continues what is now a very established theme. Ridge moving in after the storm track migrates closer to its Iceland home, and then a quietening down of the isobars and a more dog days type of pattern of slack pressure, with alternating cool northerly plunges, warm high pressure spells, and the risk of slow moving thundery lows.

I think what we may be seeing is a return to the pattern that dominated spring. Alongside sunshine and warm spells we also had a number or unusually cold (but dry) Northlerly outbreaks.

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Rubbish GFS 12z so far. ICON not good either. It’s been a day when runs have gone backwards.

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GEFS 12z shows the MLSP down here at least to be such an outlier on the 5th/6th that it isn't even worth looking at the 850 or rainfall. It drags the mean down to such a large extent. Let's hope it's not onto something...

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GEFS 12z shows the MLSP down here at least to be such an outlier on the 5th/6th that it isn't even worth looking at the 850 or rainfall. It drags the mean down to such a large extent. Let's hope it's not onto something...

 

 

 

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GFS this morning still has that train of depressions, if anything closer to the UK and with more of a trailing trough across the S as each in turn moves off (current 990mb Scotland, trail to Wed 1st; next 990 mb Hebrides Fri 3rd, trail to Sun 5th;  995mb Hebrides Tue 7th; lastly 1000mb Hebrides Fri 10th). HP finally re-establishes itself ridged from Azores to N Britain Wed 15th but not without some LP wandering around Brittany and down to Spain.

GEFS temps in S rising to seasonal norm to Fri 3rd July then a warm spell for 3-4  days (though the Op run disagrees and throws extra rain in as well) and then, with the usual scatter, temps slightly below norm out to Wed 15th. Bits and pieces of rain mostly Wed 1st in S (though MetO brings it in on Tue) and a cluster Mon/Wed 13/15th. Scotland similar though cooler wrt norm throughout (i.e. for 'warm' read 'average' and 'slightly below' read 'definitely below'; & rain in small amounts throughout.

ECM as GFS to the 7th when it takes that LP further north and then brings in the Azores high much earlier, well established by Thu 9th

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A string of GFS (and to a lesser extent ECM) downgrades throughout yesterday really has dented any prospect of decent settled weather in the short term. Like making a break and up the mountain but being caught up by the peloton.

Need a string of 3 or 4 upgrades now to salvage mid July.

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Last night Tomasz Schafernaker was hinting at a warm up around the 6th of July.

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yet again GFS06z is a poor run, like its predecessor.

But also yet again it’s a low pressure outlier;

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Wow

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Wow

Similar to the 06z GFS op run

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Nice 12z UKMO hot by 144h 14c 850s in South.

 

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So, for the 12z runs so far:

ICON: decent, ECM-style evolution with warmish end of week and then a ridge building in, starting cool but likely to warm up

GFS: More zonal than ICON though drier than 06z up to 213hrs. Longer term looking a bit dodgy but will find out later.

UKMO: A bit mysterious. At 144hrs things could go either way but it looks like a low pressure may make a dive over us

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Yep, GFS goes downhill again. Worse even than 06z, though less wet. Either yet another outlier or a trend setter.

EDIT: not an outlier on GEFS. Looking pretty abysmal.

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So, for the 12z runs so far:

ICON: decent, ECM-style evolution with warmish end of week and then a ridge building in, starting cool but likely to warm up

GFS: More zonal than ICON though drier than 06z up to 213hrs. Longer term looking a bit dodgy but will find out later.

UKMO: A bit mysterious. At 144hrs things could go either way but it looks like a low pressure may make a dive over us

 

Not sure I agree that the low is sinking on the UKMO looks like it's a good way north.

Decent GEM as well with high pressure never far from the south and 29c n Sunday

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Yep, GFS goes downhill again. Worse even than 06z, though less wet. Either yet another outlier or a trend setter.

 

I'm pretty much ignoring the GFS at the moment is been so poor. GEFS are more useful but still poor compared to the ECM ensembles

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Not sure I agree that the low is sinking on the UKMO looks like it's a good way north.

Decent GEM as well with high pressure never far from the south and 29c n Sunday

Reason I say that is the shape of the isobars. Assuming the low moves Eastwards, to avoid introducing Northwesterlies as it passes it has to travel about NNE from where it is at 144 hours. If it goes due East, or even NE, then winds will turn cooler, the high will be squashed further and retreat back towards the Azores, at least for a bit.

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Reason I say that is the shape of the isobars. Assuming the low moves Eastwards, to avoid introducing Northwesterlies as it passes it has to travel about NNE from where it is at 144 hours. If it goes due East, or even NE, then winds will turn cooler, the high will be squashed further and retreat back towards the Azores, at least for a bit.

 

Similar to GEM then which still ends up a good run for the southern third of the UK.

 

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Yep, GFS goes downhill again. Worse even than 06z, though less wet. Either yet another outlier or a trend setter.

EDIT: not an outlier on GEFS. Looking pretty abysmal.

 

Looks better for the south to my eye, very little in the way of rain again for the weekend, if rather cool at times. 

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Unusual to see 850s below par for so much of the run. I know they're not the be all and end all at this time of year.

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Both these runs are from the 00z, but just to compare the EC and GEFS for the 10 to 15 day period (which the patterns are averaged over:

GEFS


& the EC:


Only thing both agree on is that the pattern will be broadly westerly, but whether it'll be a relatively settled flow or nay is up for grabs.

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