That isn’t how I remember it here.  Our daughter was born in August ‘85 and it was too hot to be pregnant.  

85 was a shocking summer wher I lived in Worthing with a particularly cool and wet August 

The poor model runs are a bit relentless at the moment. Not even ECM to brighten the day. Only UKMO holding out any hope.

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Looks to be a general improvement n the weather from about day 6 . Low pressure still impacting the north less so the south.

 

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Looks to be a general improvement n the weather from about day 6 . Low pressure still impacting the north less so the south.

That's what I like, a glass half-full person

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That's what I like, a glass half-full person

 

I normally am when it comes to the weather. Looking at the ECM it's mean is pretty good day 6 onwards. The Op is definitely a SE - NW split though. Very wet infact for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland

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The only straw to clutch is the MetO, which if it were winter I would say would be the lead model (especially regards to cold). However it is summer, and I have mixed feelings about the current model output. I think the best that can be hoped for is a traditional North West / South East split, very annoying for those people further up the country.

I think the best that can be hoped for is a traditional North West / South East split, very annoying for those people further up the country.

 

 

I dispute your conclusion  

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I have a holiday in Scotland booked for late July, which I am still hoping to be able to take. But never before has my ability to look forward to a holiday seem so contingent.

First, will I be allowed to go at all (due to open on 15th but Nicola has made noises about closing the border to the disease-ridden English)? Second, will anything be open? Third, will I be unwelcome given general anti-tourist feeling in many places at the moment? And fourthly, will we be lumbered with a "traditional NW/SE split" which in Scottish highlands terms means absolutely abysmal weather with blustery westerlies, flooding rains and temperatures in the low teens at best.

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I normally am when it comes to the weather. Looking at the ECM it's mean is pretty good day 6 onwards. The Op is definitely a SE - NW split though. Very wet infact for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland

 

Yes, looks very like a NW/SE split yet again – the Azores High doing enough to keep the south in summery weather but depressions afflicting the northern quadrant. Fairly commonplace, standard summer fare. 

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OKish 12z GFS until close to the end. Not great, and very NW/SE split, but OKish.

GEFS also OK. A few hot runs in there.

UKMO reasonably anticyclonic at 144hrs like 00z.

GEM mixed. Similar to GFS overall

ICON mediocre.

All in all better runs than 24 or 48 hours ago, and more settled, but still cooler than average.

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Nice to see some snow in the forecast over Scotland!

(Yes, it's for Ben Nevis - still, for me at least seeing snow symbols in the UK in July is a bit of a novelty!)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt#?date=2020-07-06

More or less average down here by comparison, into the 20s every day for the next week and mid teens by night. What I wouldn't give for some snow...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?date=2020-07-01

 

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I dispute your conclusion  

do I detect some IMBY NW bias ?? 🤣🤣

 

 

Yes, looks very like a NW/SE split yet again – the Azores High doing enough to keep the south in summery weather but depressions afflicting the northern quadrant. Fairly commonplace, standard summer fare. 

If it’s standard fare that would be reflected in the anomaly data.

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The GEFS has moved away from the prolonged below average 850s (for London anyway) and now shows just a short cool spell before tracking along average. Still the median is below average but offset by a few much warmer runs.

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Jetstream more or less continuously across some part of the UK or another all the way through to Sat 18th - not good! Very strong for the time of year Sun 5th, slight respite around Wed 15th.

GFS - not quite as dire as jetstream would suggest, but LP moves across close to N of UK with N-lies tucking in behind Mons 6th and 13th with weakish ridge of HP mostly across the S between; Wed 15th LP develops on Atlantic and sits over UK by Sat 18th.

GEFS - can pick out those N-lies above; in the S warm around Sun 5th, cold (4C below norm) Mon 7th, Warm (mostly but includes op & control)  Sat 11th, cold again Tue 14th (lots of scatter but again op & control support). Same trends in Scotland but warm spells less evident. Occasional rain in S but not a lot, very dry to SW, rather more in N esp in next few days, never really gives up in the NE.

ECM has the LP on Mon 6th but then another LP crossing the UK Fri 10th (much further S than anything on GFS) and that begins to be swallowed up by large area of HP Sun 12th (Mon 13th beyond charts shown on TWO but no indication that the LP shown on GFS will be present)

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Looks very mediocre to me.

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Certainly in the reliable range, lets hope for some changes soon to something warmer and settled

Looks very mediocre to me.

Certainly nothing special (hot or cold, wet or dry). However, for here at least it's on the "right side" of mediocre with little or no rain forecast (after the weekend) with temps around 19c.

 

 

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Blimey. Every time I look at a GFS Ops run it looks worse than the last. 06Z is poor with a theme of 'make the most of any dry days that you get' .

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Blimey. Every time I look at a GFS Ops run it looks worse than the last. 06Z is poor with a theme of 'make the most of any dry days that you get' .

OP run doesn't look great I agree but the GEFS aren't very wet at least in the southeast http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

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