This is a seriously long period of below average 850s on GEFS - over half the run:

Does seem to very out of synch with the other models. Big contrast from only a couple of days ago too. I suspect the overall pattern is not dissimilar but the lows are just that bit further south on GFS.

Wetter than recent ENS too.

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I'm pretty much ignoring the GFS at the moment is been so poor. GEFS are more useful but still poor compared to the ECM ensembles

It’s been the formless nag so far this summer. It doesn’t have much support from the other models but we shall see I guess. It tends to be an unsettled ramper, at least this summer.

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Very unusual to see this in the current era.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&chartname=21_meantemp5dayeuhd_anom&chartregion=euranom&p=21&charttag=5%20day%20temp%20anomaly

 

GEFS 12z mean anomaly temperature charts for days 0 to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 to 15 all going below average again this evening https://t.co/U9pWaI8UuC pic.twitter.com/1VIThldBx4

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 29, 2020

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Yep, GFS goes downhill again. Worse even than 06z, though less wet. Either yet another outlier or a trend setter.

EDIT: not an outlier on GEFS. Looking pretty abysmal.

GFS really keen on a Greenland high to mess up our July.

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ECM also going for a very warm weekend high 20s in the SE.

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I smell some form of pattern change, I just hope it’s not as dramatic and wet as some output would have us believe. We seem to be going from cut off low to a string of depressions more akin to Autumn, really poor output for sure.

ECM also going for a very warm weekend high 20s in the SE.

Does look decent. Output is showing 22C on Friday and Saturday, 25C on Sunday then back to 22C on Mon. Probably be one or two degrees warmer than that. 

Bit more mediocre and very chilly later in the run but not wet, at least in the East.

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Does look decent. Output is showing 22C on Friday and Saturday, 25C on Sunday then back to 22C on Mon. Probably be one or two degrees warmer than that. 

Bit more mediocre and very chilly later in the run but not wet, at least in the East.

 

There’s a notional stand-off between ECM and GFS but it’s largely because the latter has the low a few hundred miles south, a common pattern this summer. ECM is the form horse so fingers crossed. 

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I smell some form of pattern change, I just hope it’s not as dramatic and wet as some output would have us believe. We seem to be going from cut off low to a string of depressions more akin to Autumn, really poor output for sure.

Probably usable weather in the SE quadrant but we shall see. 

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Jetstream in position to keep things unsettled and push depressions across the UK - running first across the S, then the N (Fri 3rd) and back to the centre (Mon 6th), finally weakening by Fri 10th but with a sting in the tail as a local N-S branch appears on Wed 15th. But the BBC outlook contradicted this, showing (like yesterday's ECM) a broad ridge of high pressure across the UK by next Tue 7th. In the meantime connoisseurs of fronts should look at the FAX charts, a real mess for this week, scarcely anywhere in the UK not seeing a front at some time or other.

For the big players, GFS shows the current LP off to N Finland Thu 2nd leaving some quite cold air behind.  The next LP is more of a broad trough with zonal flow across the UK but resolves itself into a definite centre in the northern N Sea Mon 6th. A ridge of HP across the UK on Wed 8th looks promising but fails to fulfil its potential, hanging back in the Atlantic with generally slack pressure gradients over the UK for the following week. To my eye, the later charts look unstable and likely to change as we get closer.

GEFS much like yesterday - for the S cool at first, burst of warmth 4/6th Sat/Mon, sudden drop to about 5C below norm and slow recovery of the mean of runs to norm by 15th though both op and control stay cold. Bits and pieces of rain, never very much.In Scotland an N England, that 'burst of warmth' only just makes it above the norm and there's more rain around with a few runs showing big totals later on

ECM agrees with GFS to Wed 8th but that HP is even less promising with a well-defined depression off NW Scotland the following day pushing the HP off to the south.

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Weak ridges of high pressure seem to be the theme over the next few weeks. Not much sign of anything particularly warm either - in fact quite a cool spell is on the cards. Rain or showers never too far away although southern England and Wales may not fare too badly with precipitation.

For farmers, other workers and gardeners it's probably usable weather but for staycation holiday makers (of which there will be many more this summer) it looks like a disappointing few weeks in general. 

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So as was probably inevitable, GFS has got a tiny bit better the last 2 runs but ECM has deteriorated. Consensus on the way for a brief windy warm up this weekend then a cold plunge. What follows is still up for grabs.

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So as was probably inevitable, GFS has got a tiny bit better the last 2 runs but ECM has deteriorated. Consensus on the way for a brief windy warm up this weekend then a cold plunge. What follows is still up for grabs.

Reckon this could be a below average July.

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GFS (And GEFS) this evening one notch better than 06z, so that’s 1 flat and 2 small upgrades in the last 3.

GEM and GEM ensemble a notch down on 00z which was a notch down on yesterday’s 12z. So 2 downgrades in a row.

UKMO more unsettled than this morning though nothing dramatic. Can’t remember yesterday’s.

ECM a mixture, but a tad better than 00z. So 1 upgrade following 3 downgrades on the trot. Now not dissimilar to the others.

We are 3 upgrades away from any kind of sustained warm dry weather. 1 downgrade away from a very cold first fortnight of July, but probably 2 or 3 downgrades away from something really wet.

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A very Summer 1985 feel to things at the moment.

We're due one I suppose.

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A very Summer 1985 feel to things at the moment.

We're due one I suppose.

That was a memorable summer for music, but less so for the weather from what I have read about it.

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What was Summer 1985 like pray tell?

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What was Summer 1985 like pray tell?

Can't speak for any other area, but it was dreadful here, even by west of Scotland standards. It was the wettest summer of the entire 20th century in Glasgow, I seem to recall reading somewhere quite a while ago.

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Can't speak for any other area, but it was dreadful here, even by west of Scotland standards. It was the wettest summer of the entire 20th century in Glasgow, I seem to recall reading somewhere quite a while ago.

That isn’t how I remember it here.  Our daughter was born in August ‘85 and it was too hot to be pregnant.  

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 A little warmer for week 2, especially in the south-east, but some monstrously high temps (>40C diurnal average) in the Sahara and Iraq are staying there with below average for NW Europe and especially Scandinavia. Rain streaming in off the Atlantic to match, NW Britain much affected - typical zonal weather.

In more detail GFS does have a brief ridge of HP Tue 7th but in general Atlantic depressions are dictating the weather and HP flirting with the south keeps getting pushed back -some decent weather there but grab your chance as it passes through. LP centres 990mb Greenland Fri 3rd moving to Norway Mon 6th, 1000 mb Rockall Fri 10th, 990mb Faeroes Tue 14th, 995mb Iceland Fri 17th.

GEFS Temps for the S on a rollercoaster; good agreement between runs on down Fri 3rd, up Sun 5th, down Tue 7th, back to norm on Thu 9th but thereafter lots of scatter, more so than yesterday, mean of runs near norm. Bits and pieces of rain, one or two runs with big totals esp after Mon 13th but very dry in SW. Scotland and N England have same up and down pattern for temp but on a lower base, quite a lot of rain Fri/Sun 3/5th esp Scotland and not exactly dry after that

ECM has even more LPs after Mon 6th; 1000mb NW Ireland Wed 8th, 985mb again NW Ireland Fri 10th moving to Hebrides, any ridges of HP for the S more flattened than on GFS

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