Very useful resource, as always - from earlier this week:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ 

---

Plenty of warm runs showing on the GEFS from about 6 July but also a small cluster keeping it cool. Lots to sort out yet.

---

Yes the 6th July improving signal fading somewhat this morning.

---

Yes the 6th July improving signal fading somewhat this morning.

These ensembles paint a slightly better picture for Londonat least. 06 July onwards looks better. Naturally lots of water under the bridge first of all.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

---

 

These ensembles paint a slightly better picture for Londonat least. 06 July onwards looks better. Naturally lots of water under the bridge first of all.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

 

Yes hopefully just some dodgy Ops. 6th July still quite along way away though so nothing guaranteed.

 

---

 

 

Yes hopefully just some dodgy Ops. 6th July still quite along way away though so nothing guaranteed.

 

The ECM mean looks more promising this morning.

 

---

Jetstream running quite strongly across S of UK for the time of year to Sat 4th. then shifting N to Scotland until Thu 9th before breaking up into loops and fragments, one of which running from SW on Mon 13th might bring up some warmth from the S - a long way off.

GFS 6z: LP over N Scotland pulling away to Norway by Wed 1st and leaving some N/NE-lies in its wake; new LP 975mb well established mid-Atlantic Fri 3rd; that turns into a disorganised mainly zonal weather with source of air from SW to Wed 8th before Azores P taes control Sat 11th, mainly over Scotland with continental LP for the S

GEFS: temp below normal for last few days of June, then mean is back to normal  - slight dip in S around Sat 4th, better around Tue 7th but little agreement further out. Rain in Scotland from now onwards,  in S most likely for a week beginning Tue 30th, drier later. in both areas

ECM 0z: Much the same as GFS above

---

Azores high pushing in nicely day 8 on the GFS 6z . Need to get this to day 5 to have faith though.

 

---

GFS 06z goes hot around the 7th-9th. Seems like in most runs there is at least one high pressure outbreak somewhere between the 4th and 10th.

---

July 1993



Also July 2015 had a small pocket of -5C

But crucially none of those events actually had the -5C touch the UK. I mean neither will this one probably, but it is no doubt exceptional and if it does touch record breaking.

 

---

The inflection point seems to be the 4th, for both SLP and temperature. 

---

Tomorrow could give us another crack at the all time renewable energy record, so long as demand is high enough.

Windy in the North, West and North Sea where most of the wind turbines are (though not quite as windy as I’d ideally like in the Hebrides), and sunny at midday in the South where most of the solar panels are. 

---

Feels like TimS’s model output thread at the moment.

The signal for a pattern change from 4th July onwards remains pretty strong across the models.

The last low of the current Atlantic train crosses us next weekend. Two evolutions from then. We either get zonal winds and warmth from Friday onwards, or more cyclonic weekend, then a brief northerly toppler, then the ridge comes in.

---

The GFS evolution is in the minority.

---

Amongst the tumble weeds...
a positive signal for Above average warmth in July:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Open water now showing along Arctic coasts esp Sibeia

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 NW/SE split for the next fortnight, both areas drier and a little warmer in week 2 but no heat wave. 

FAX looking disturbed with current LP filling and being replaced by another from Atlantic at end of week, but not before a final small disturbance runs along the Channel on Tue/Wed. 

GFS shows procession of depressions - Scotland 990mb Mon 29th moving to Baltic, mid-Atlantic 980mb Fri 3rd moving to N Norway, mid-Atlantic 1000mb Mon 6th moving past Faeroes,  before the model experiments with HP close to UK Wed 8th, even that is affected by continental LP in SE Fri 10th.

GEFS temps back to normal Wed 1st, and mean of runs close to seasonal average (a little below in the N) through to Tue 14th but with enough scatter to allow any form of cherry-picking from Sun 5th onwards. Best chance of rain in S around Sun 5th bits on either side of that esp later on; in the N the rain appears a little earlier and is more persistent in Scotland.

ECM brings the LP forecast on GFS for Fri 3rd across the UK, not the Faeroes, but the LP on Mon 6th is there and the swift recovery with HP over the UK shown on yesterday's 12z may not now happen (will need editing as 12z chart for Tue 7th still showing at time of posting) EDIT - well, the HP is sort of there Tue/Wed 7th/8th but only rather timorously affecting the S and even then Iberian low is developing strongly

---

The encouraging signal for warmth on GEFS yesterday (in terms of 850mb temperature) seems to have largely disappeared this morning with a huge amount of scatter leaving the mean around average or slightly below. The op run shows the Greenland high building strongly towards the end which isn’t a good sign.

---

The encouraging signal for warmth on GEFS yesterday (in terms of 850mb temperature) seems to have largely disappeared this morning with a huge amount of scatter leaving the mean around average or slightly below. The op run shows the Greenland high building strongly towards the end which isn’t a good sign.

The rise in pressure seems to be there in the GEFS still, just not the net rise in 850s. I looked at the postage stamps for 24hrs and I think the reason is there are a number of perturbations with a ridge to the West and NW flow. May well change again.

---

Good ECM this morning especially the mean above 10c 850s at day 6 and stays there. 

---

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Kieren, I am so very sorry to read about your sad news; I've only just read this for the first time a few minutes ago. Deepest condolences to you and the rest of your family at this time.

---