A few downpours doesn’t a “write-off” make though does it? 

I suspect 85-90% of people think June has been a good summery month, not a write off, as you infamously predicted. 

Look, I've said countless times, I was wrong.....We will see how July pans out. I am "marginally" more encouraged by the 12z's, but they are still pretty dicey at the moment, and don't expect anything summery for AT LEAST the first half. Time will tell.

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A few downpours doesn’t a “write-off” make though does it? 

I suspect 85-90% of people think June has been a good summery month, not a write off, as you infamously predicted. 

Yup. Been a superb month for us in the South East. Got a lovely tan from just walking about. Nowhere near a write-off. Since lockdown, the weather has been superb. And looking at the models, I still cannot see a write-off in sight. Yes, rain on a few days, but perfectly acceptable UK summer weather.

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Yup. Been a superb month for us in the South East. Got a lovely tan from just walking about. Nowhere near a write-off. Since lockdown, the weather has been superb. And looking at the models, I still cannot see a write-off in sight. Yes, rain on a few days, but perfectly acceptable UK summer weather.

  indeed we have had approx 40mm rain since 22 March   and incredible amounts of sunshine. The best 3 month spell I can remember altho 2018 was similar 

Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

My sincerest sympathies moomin.

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Any ideas anyone when a new settled warm spell is on the way.

 

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

Sorry to hear that my sympathies Moomin.

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Any ideas anyone when a new settled warm spell is on the way.

 

 

July 6th. Gefs look like they're sniffing something around then. Something like the control run or p15.

 

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 cool NW, comfortably warm SE for a couple of weeks. rain fairly general week 1, drier in SE later

GFS: LP Sub 28th/Mon 29th over Scotland, decaying with some N-ly air entrained. New large LP in Atlantic Sat 4th moving off to Faeroes Sat 11th and filling, some warm air entrained at first esp in SE but later cooler stuff coming down the back edge. W-ly zonal stuff at end of run.

GEFS: In the S becoming cool and dry until Mon 29th; then average and damp  until Sat 4th after which a lot of scatter, mean close to norm but o and control going in opposite direction and one outlier 13C above norm! Fairly dry for this period. Scotland a bit below average temp to the 4th then like the S, bits and pieces of rain throughout.

ECM: Much less active Atlantic from Sat 4th, in fact major new area of HP on Mon 6th covering UK and with warm air to boot.

FAX keeps LP more active over UK for several days with secondaries still forming on Tue 30th

Not a lot of agreement this morning.

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Sorry to hear about your loss moomin.

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

In the absence of an 'upvote' function on this software to show my endorsement of what others have expressed, I would like to add my expression of sympathy and understanding. The death of someone that close, and most of all a mother, or someone who has acted like one, is a very deep emotional trauma, and one that will take quite a time to get over.

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

So sorry to hear that Moomin!  You may be a pessimist with the weather but you’re a good and gentle soul! x

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

 

Really sorry to hear this, Moomin. I know we bag you for being a pessimist, but you're a treasured member of the TWO community. Hope you're OK.

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To my knowledge (please correct if you can give an example). The -5 850hpa isotherm has never touched any part of the UK in July

Probably won't this time but christ its unusual to see air that cold a few hundred miles away.

 

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Holy crap its so close. Wonder what the all time record 850hpa temp is for July. Must be something like -3C or -4C.

 

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Just to say, and sorry for being completely off topic here, but as this is where I predominantly post, I'm going off line for a few days. I have had some heartbreaking news tonight that my loving Auntie who looked after me when my mum died when I was 16, has passed away. I am distraught and devastated and puts all of my moaning into perspective. Sorry to everyone for being so annoying....but I will come back with a fresh mindset, but right now, I need a few days or so to mourn the death of my loving Auntie who I cared for like a mother. x

I'm very sorry to hear this. You have my sincere sympathy.

Holy crap its so close. Wonder what the all time record 850hpa temp is for July. Must be something like -3C or -4C.

 

I pretty sure you were saying the same thing last year when the -5C was crossing close to shetland island, and posters produced quite a number of years when it had happened.

To my knowledge (please correct if you can give an example). The -5 850hpa isotherm has never touched any part of the UK in July

Probably won't this time but christ its unusual to see air that cold a few hundred miles away.

 

Yep 3rd July last year 

 

 

 

July 1993 was a cold one with widespread -1C to -4C across large parts of northern UK with the -5C just of the west coast of Scotland 

Condolences to Moomin on his sad news.

GEFS 06z continues to show an inflection point in 850s around the 6th July, with SLP rising a day or so before then and staying around 1020hPa.

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Deepest sympathies Moomin and I am sure the sun will be shining for your Aunt.