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Is that the same hunch you had for June 2020?
Very strange looking charts at the moment especially for July. It will probably turn out average but unusual.
Awful charts this evening. Somehow they feel wrong. Because? Because we’ve had too many disappointing summers in the last 2 decades during an era of global warming. It feels we are owed big time.Imagine if we were in a period of year on year rapid global cooling, and we kept getting snowless winters. It would feel WRONG. That’s how this feels.
Sadly it's all trending in very much the wrong direction, and contrary to belief, I am not searching for this. I don't think it looks good for July, but as has been said, the charts are only semi-reliable after days 6-10 so we must just keep hoping for an upturn in fortunes.
Yes.....😂
That’s good then Mooms! Let’s hope your hunch is wrong again!
If we had summers like 2018 and 2019 regularly for two decades, we would have moved into a totally different climate phase. Although it almost feels like we are about to now, given the relentless warmth of the last twelve months. I’m hoping for some sort of reset (see my guesses in the CET comp!) to our ‘normal’ weather or I fear snowless winters will be a regular feature in lowland England.
Today's GFS 12z has some awful charts which wouldn't be out of place in the often poor 1980s summers. Could today or tomorrow be the hottest day of summer 2020? https://t.co/U7KMfgIkNT pic.twitter.com/2dfWYKIm9h— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 24, 2020
Today's GFS 12z has some awful charts which wouldn't be out of place in the often poor 1980s summers. Could today or tomorrow be the hottest day of summer 2020? https://t.co/U7KMfgIkNT pic.twitter.com/2dfWYKIm9h
The seems a tiny bit overdramatic based on one model run in June, when there are still more than seven weeks of summer after the end of the run
Still, nothing like a bit of bad news to get the punters clicking so I see why you posted it!
The seems a tiny bit overdramatic based on one model run in June, when there are still more than seven weeks of summer after the end of the run Still, nothing like a bit of bad news to get the punters clicking so I see why you posted it!
Except it's not one model run Rob. All the models are looking poor and the trend is growing.
Current output looks changeable for the next week or so, heading into the beginning of July. It has shown that for a while now. Poor in comparison to the current spell, yes. Again, there are half-truths coming to the surface to suit agendas though...
Thereafter there are no clear signs either way. In fact, going by the GEFS there is a trend for drier conditions developing heading towards week 2 of July (edit: GFS 00z operational continues this trend). I agree with Rob - there are 7 weeks left of summer with the output showing one week of fairly unsettled and quite typical British summer weather. Hardly time to throw in the towel
Oh, and it was one model run - the GFS 12z operational was quoted in the tweet that Rob was referencing.
Doesnt look too bad this morning higher pressure to the south could push north anytime so no need to write summer off again Moomin ...oh hang on you did that in May if i remember correctly.
Bad is good. Good is good. Mediocre is bad.
Poor output this morning again ECM in particular is very unsettled especially for the north. So much heat to our south any southerly will be very hot but can we get a southerly.
No I fear we can't, because the troughing to our north and west remains the dominant force and constantly forces any attempt at ridging away from the UK.
I think the next 7 to 10 days or so after today's and tomorrow's heat look average to poor. But both the Beeb and met office long rangers are suggesting warm and hot settled weather to return second half of July. Now both the Beebs and Metos long range forecast have been really poor recently but hopefully they have this right.
Looks more like an east-west split than a north-south one.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20200705-0000z.html
Same age as me then. Born 1976.
Yes. But November, so I was being fried as a foetus during that long Summer. Perhaps explains how I turned out with a few screws missing!
Same here. 15th November 1976.
ECM mean for 240hrs is pretty much the textbook mean pattern for British summer. Straight out of the Usborne school atlas:
Not sure what to make of this one given that the last 20 years includes 2003 (record breaker), July 2006 (hottest and sunniest month on record), July 2013 (top 10 July in last 300 years), 2018 (probably in the top 5 summers ever) and 2019 (record broken again, not a great summer overall though. That's without mentioning the 2015 July record, 90F recorded every month from June to September in 2016, etc. 2007-12 were very poor but the rest well above any historical benchmark bar the 90s