This could give the coldest daytime maxima ever recorded in July for Scotland.

 

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This could give the coldest daytime maxima ever recorded in July for Scotland.

 

Absolutely. Ordinary summer chart that isn't.

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It’ll be a fairly chilly day up there. Nowhere near a record.

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This could give the coldest daytime maxima ever recorded in July for Scotland.

 

Or a slight shift in position and all that hot air will flood west.

It’ll be a fairly chilly day up there. Nowhere near a record.

TWO charts have maxima of 7C over the highlands and 11-13C around the coasts. Doesn't seem record-breaking to me, but not very good for July!

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People moan about this forum being too Southern England/London centric.

May I tentatively suggest that it has become too Moomin centric.

Moomin this, Moomin that. Moomin’s summer forecast, Moomin’s predictions, whether or not Moomin was right all along, whether or not Moomin will be wrong. 

We are absolutely OBSESSED with Moomin. The Moomin Output Discussion thread. 

It’s all good entertainment though isn’t it. More predictable than the models at least. 

And now I’ve just made it worse. 😂😂😂😀😀😀

Their should be a sign saying 'do not feed'  Sorry.

 

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I will never forget 1995. The year the landscape went to dust.

By mid August it looked like we were living in Southern Spain.

It looked that way around here by the end of May this year! Even the 37mm of rain we have had this month only greened things up temporarily and much of the grass is going strawlike again. The local mountain-bike trails were back to dustbowls when I went out last night. Frankly whatever happens in July and August I already feel like we've had a long summer here - it started in late March and has continued more or less undisturbed ever since! I think I've already had more alfresco lunches and dinners than I normally manage in a year (helped of course by working from home)

 

Looking at the tabular GFS output for here, this coming Friday, Saturday and Sunday look likely to be wet but with most of the rain in the early morning. After that there's not really a strong rain signal apart from the period of July 2-4.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=283&y=153&run=6&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

 

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I will never forget 1995. The year the landscape went to dust.

By mid August it looked like we were living in Southern Spain.

 

Yep.  I flew back from LA then.  It looked markedly drier here than it did there.

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People moan about this forum being too Southern England/London centric.

May I tentatively suggest that it has become too Moomin centric.

Moomin this, Moomin that. Moomin’s summer forecast, Moomin’s predictions, whether or not Moomin was right all along, whether or not Moomin will be wrong. 

We are absolutely OBSESSED with Moomin. The Moomin Output Discussion thread. 

Here's the June CET predictions. 

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Here's the June CET predictions. 

I have said several times I was wrong in terms of temperatures. Happy to accept that and the necessary ridicule that deservedly follows.
However, for many areas, it's been a wet June and after today and tomorrow's brief hot spell, many more will become wet and I think there will be some headline making weather on Friday.
Thereafter, the models are ALL pretty changeable. I went for a cool June, I will plump for an average July temperature wise.

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I have said several times I was wrong in terms of temperatures. Happy to accept that and the necessary ridicule that deservedly follows.
However, for many areas, it's been a wet June and after today and tomorrow's brief hot spell, many more will become wet and I think there will be some headline making weather on Friday.
Thereafter, the models are ALL pretty changeable. I went for a cool June, I will plump for an average July temperature wise.

It has been wet in fits and starts from downpours and thunderstorms mainly. Very different to a low pressure dominated months with lots of frontal activity and suppressed temperatures. There have also been massive variations in rainfall locally due to the aforementioned convective activity. Many are still around or even below average.

You may be closer to the mark regarding your July thoughts. At the moment there are no clear signals either way, so it'll be a tricky call and I applaud anyone who is brave enough to forecast the month ahead.

 

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Never mind rolling on the floor laughing. At least he's prepared to nail his colours to the mast.

And I don't see your name on there.....

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It has been wet in fits and starts from downpours and thunderstorms mainly. Very different to a low pressure dominated months with lots of frontal activity and suppressed temperatures. There have also been massive variations in rainfall locally due to the aforementioned convective activity. Many are still around or even below average.

You may be closer to the mark regarding your July thoughts. At the moment there are no clear signals either way, so it'll be a tricky call and I applaud anyone who is brave enough to forecast the month ahead.

 

Definitely no forecast, but a strong hunch. I just don't like the background signals and the longer term models are quite poor too. In the best summers, the Azorea high comes into play by strongly ridging in. As I've said previously, it is trying to ridge in, but is being forced back each time, and so fleeting settled spells are possible, but interspersed with much more in the way of rain and cooler for all.

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Never mind rolling on the floor laughing. At least he's prepared to nail his colours to the mast.

And I don't see your name on there.....

Same every year mate but it keeps us entertained. You need to relax on his Ark 

 

Same every year mate but it keeps us entertained. You need to relax on his Ark 

The Ark is being prepared for the end of this week and July 😂😂😘

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The Ark is being prepared for the end of this week and July 😂😂😘

I don't think Col appreciates our annual banter  Torrential rain is fine if it's warm although apart from storms at the end of the week I'm not on board yet 

 

I don't think Col appreciates our annual banter  Torrential rain is fine if it's warm although apart from storms at the end of the week I'm not on board yet 

I love the annual banter....I deserve most of what I get. I am trying to comment on models (really I am) and it does look changeable at best. I am not really (at this stage) writing off the whole summer. But probably the next couple of weeks. 

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Today's GFS 12z has some awful charts which wouldn't be out of place in the often poor 1980s summers. Could today or tomorrow be the hottest day of summer 2020? https://t.co/U7KMfgIkNT pic.twitter.com/2dfWYKIm9h

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 24, 2020

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Definitely no forecast, but a strong hunch. I just don't like the background signals and the longer term models are quite poor too. In the best summers, the Azorea high comes into play by strongly ridging in. As I've said previously, it is trying to ridge in, but is being forced back each time, and so fleeting settled spells are possible, but interspersed with much more in the way of rain and cooler for all.

Is that the same hunch you had for June 2020?

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