Jetstream more or less continuously across some part of the UK or another all the way through to Sat 18th - not good! Very strong for the time of year Sun 5th, slight respite around Wed 15th.
GFS - not quite as dire as jetstream would suggest, but LP moves across close to N of UK with N-lies tucking in behind Mons 6th and 13th with weakish ridge of HP mostly across the S between; Wed 15th LP develops on Atlantic and sits over UK by Sat 18th.
GEFS - can pick out those N-lies above; in the S warm around Sun 5th, cold (4C below norm) Mon 7th, Warm (mostly but includes op & control) Sat 11th, cold again Tue 14th (lots of scatter but again op & control support). Same trends in Scotland but warm spells less evident. Occasional rain in S but not a lot, very dry to SW, rather more in N esp in next few days, never really gives up in the NE.
ECM has the LP on Mon 6th but then another LP crossing the UK Fri 10th (much further S than anything on GFS) and that begins to be swallowed up by large area of HP Sun 12th (Mon 13th beyond charts shown on TWO but no indication that the LP shown on GFS will be present)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl