Jetstream in position to keep things unsettled and push depressions across the UK - running first across the S, then the N (Fri 3rd) and back to the centre (Mon 6th), finally weakening by Fri 10th but with a sting in the tail as a local N-S branch appears on Wed 15th. But the BBC outlook contradicted this, showing (like yesterday's ECM) a broad ridge of high pressure across the UK by next Tue 7th. In the meantime connoisseurs of fronts should look at the FAX charts, a real mess for this week, scarcely anywhere in the UK not seeing a front at some time or other.
For the big players, GFS shows the current LP off to N Finland Thu 2nd leaving some quite cold air behind. The next LP is more of a broad trough with zonal flow across the UK but resolves itself into a definite centre in the northern N Sea Mon 6th. A ridge of HP across the UK on Wed 8th looks promising but fails to fulfil its potential, hanging back in the Atlantic with generally slack pressure gradients over the UK for the following week. To my eye, the later charts look unstable and likely to change as we get closer.
GEFS much like yesterday - for the S cool at first, burst of warmth 4/6th Sat/Mon, sudden drop to about 5C below norm and slow recovery of the mean of runs to norm by 15th though both op and control stay cold. Bits and pieces of rain, never very much.In Scotland an N England, that 'burst of warmth' only just makes it above the norm and there's more rain around with a few runs showing big totals later on
ECM agrees with GFS to Wed 8th but that HP is even less promising with a well-defined depression off NW Scotland the following day pushing the HP off to the south.
Edited by user
30 June 2020 09:28:36
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Reason: Not specified
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl