In the thread for giving our predictions for this year and for this decade, I mentioned that the spring would start off on an Atlantic-driven note since that is how the winter was, and since any pattern change will probably require a gradual transition from that.
However, with the stratospheric temperatures above the NP being so cold and driving such a powerful PV as a result, I could see that this could be enough for any natural warming from the Sun as we go further into the spring to have such a big impact on the stratosphere that the effects on the troposphere become similar to what we would be looking for from a SSW event during the weather with northern blocking resulting from that.
Because of that, I then predicted that the latter part of this spring in particular, could become a lot more easterly dominated as a result with more in the way of northern blocking. In the transition period between those two states, I also predicted that we would see the Azores High increasingly building over the country as the PV weakens, to bring a spell of drier and more settled weather before this high pressure then drifts north to become our northern blocking.
I know that what I have mentioned so far is off topic for this thread up until now, but the reason why I have mentioned this here is due to the fact that northern blocking has started to appear in the model output. Now, I know that this is only in the unreliable time frame and for now, is only really there as an outlier within the GFS model output.
Because of that, I am perfectly aware that we shouldn't really take that very seriously as a result. However, I am wondering whether or not, the appearance of northern blocking in the unreliable time frame of the GFS in particular is perhaps, the very first signs that my above predictions for this spring are starting to be shown to be right.
Now, I did mention that it would probably be in the latter part of the spring when we saw that northern blocking and we are only at the start of the spring just now. Because of that, I wouldn't have expected too much northern blocking to appear in the model output right now so the fact that this is only there as a GFS outlier fits in with my predictions quite nicely.
If I am right in what I am saying though, I would expect northern blocking to feature a lot more within the model output as time goes on. Furthermore, the models are agreeing a lot more that we are very soon, about to leave the more unsettled weather behind which we are still experiencing and go into a period which is more high pressure dominated. Even that fits in nicely with my predictions as well because I did also predict that we would go through a period of high pressure dominated weather as we eventually transition more towards northern blocking.
This means that it is is entirely possible that the model output which is just going for high pressure to be in charge, is possibly seeing that as a means of some sort of transition towards northern blocking but without extending far enough out at this stage for that northern blocking to come into that actual output.
This means that we could be in for a very interesting time indeed in that regard. Of course, we could have done with seeing that northern blocking during the winter so that it could have brought us a lot of cold and snowy weather, and the fact that we had such a horrible winter in that regard makes that all the more frustrating. However, I did also predict that this would happen too late to bring any real cold weather and that there would be a lot of frustrated people on this forum as a result as I am already starting to see, going by some recent comments on this thread.
Edited by user
12 March 2020 01:40:08
|
Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.