Jet stream still strong direct and across the UK tis coming week esp early in week; breaking up, weakening and moving off to Iceland next week.

In line with this GFS has westerlies this week wit a final 980mb storm centred Scotland Sun 15th. Thereafter ridge to Scandi develops, eventually becoming HP centred over Baltic 1050mb Fri 20th with weak easterlies over southern UK . 

ECM has westerlies less pronounced by Fri 13th, even a hint of a brief northerly, and has the LP on the 15th 990 mb further south, over the Channel. Then it develops the Scandi HP and associated easterlies more quickly ie by Tue 17th while GFS is still toying with a ridge.

Ens runs somewhat different to yesterday, cold 9th, mild 11th, then for the S a long period of mean 1-2C below seasonal norm (the Op run is notably cold  on the 20th, nearly 10C below) and very dry. In the N, similar but closer to norm and even a little above by end of run, and a bit more rain esp in the NW. Snow row figures consistently high only for Inverness, though a few passing teens elsewhere.

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Oh dear!! Not much sign of anything springlike or drier - just less wet really and cool!? Also from the exception of Monday -Wednesday this week- Most of ENS are at or below 0c @ 850hpa 

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Both the 0z and 6z GFS ops bring a proper easterly feed towards the end of their runs - in both cases, with sub -10C 850s hitting the UK. In theory that'd be cold enough for some snow...

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Both the 0z and 6z GFS ops bring a proper easterly feed towards the end of their runs - in both cases, with sub -10C 850s hitting the UK. In theory that'd be cold enough for some snow...

At a time when such cold spells are about as welcome as a fart in a lift.

Funny how magically the tasty looking Winter-type outputs doesn't show up in deep winter but instead turn up to indicate a stunted Spring. 

Back to the here and now, still a good week of Atlantic-orientated maritime stuff to get through first before we do get out of that rut by the third week of March. Even ECM is coming up with a similar idea.

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At a time when such cold spells are about as welcome as a fart in a lift.

I'll take snow any time of year. Sod's law, of course, would suggest that no snow will be forthcoming, at least down here, as it's extremely rare to have snow in late March onwards! (Further inland it's different, of course, but by the coast as I am... fugeddaboutit, so to speak.)

 

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At a time when such cold spells are about as welcome as a fart in a lift.

Funny how magically the tasty looking Winter-type outputs doesn't show up in deep winter but instead turn up to indicate a stunted Spring. 

Back to the here and now, still a good week of Atlantic-orientated maritime stuff to get through first before we do get out of that rut by the third week of March. Even ECM is coming up with a similar idea.

I knew this would happen!!

Happened last winter when we had an exceptionally warm February and only for the weather to deteriorate as we headed into Spring and I remember April and May was blocked and cool as well as wet. - But even last year we didn't have this much rain and the sad thing is that the PV is still so strong with record breaking zonal winds at 10hpa!!? 

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I'll take snow any time of year. Sod's law, of course, would suggest that no snow will be forthcoming, at least down here, as it's extremely rare to have snow in late March onwards! (Further inland it's different, of course, but by the coast as I am... fugeddaboutit, so to speak.)

 

Besides, SSTs  are 8 c to 10 c along the Channel which is above average for this time of year so there is unlikely to be that much of the dreaded "Newfoundland" effect over Kent as we go into the middle part of this Spring.

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Westerlies for this week with a final sting in the tail- GFS 985mb Shetland Sun 15th and nasty northerly gales on the day after, Ridge of HP then builds and becomes a centre over Scotland 1045mb on Sat 21st, large and well established through to Wed 25th with easterlies for the Channel coasts.

ECM as yesterday has Sunday's LP further south, over S Ireland, and although there;s a ridge on Tue 24th it proves to be a 'toppler' and westerlies are back on Wed with only a weak hint that it could re-establish from the Atlantic.

GEFS ensembles agree on a burst of mild air Wed 11th, then cold from 13th, slightly less cold on Sun 15th, a lot of divergence after that but mostly recovering to normal by 25th (earlier in the N). A bit of rain in the west but mostly dry everywhere else.

 

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The Op 06z doesn't have much support and even then doesn't look overly mild either with only a few ENS going about +5c @ 850hpa but many ENS going below -5c@ 850hpa and several going as low as -10c @ 850hpa and even below??

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After a mild blip, the ENS are bumping along under the LTA.

With minimal rain, hopefully some frosty nights to come to knock the CET down.

 

 

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Today's GFS 06z is the first "if only it were August" run I can remember for a while. Perfect summer synoptics:

• This week up to Sunday low to mid 20s in South, fairly cloudy but dry. Some light rain in the North and West


• Next week settling down across the country, mid 20s widely by Wed, up to 30C+ by later in week


• Then a long, stable heatwave with 30C+ recorded somewhere in UK every day until end of run the following Wed, and the prospect of more heat to come. Quite possibly a 40C in France

 

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The way things are going with our climate some of that could well happen in April!

I do like the look of the 12z GFS with a virtually rain and wind-free second half of March. That's good as we need it after what has been the longest Autumn,  even if we are unlikely to experience early Spring warmth and days of unbroken sun just yet. 

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I do like the look of the 12z GFS with a virtually rain and wind-free second half of March. That's good as we need it after what has been the longest Autumn,  even if we are unlikely to experience early Spring warmth and days of unbroken sun just yet. 

I noticed that as well, and it gets a from me too.

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I do like the look of the 12z GFS with a virtually rain and wind-free second half of March. That's good as we need it after what has been the longest Autumn,  even if we are unlikely to experience early Spring warmth and days of unbroken sun just yet. 

Yes, after a crap UK winter a spell of more pleasant weather would be welcome by most and most importantly a lot dryer to.

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A sight for sore eyes.

Several days without rain would be nice. A low humidity continental feed with bags of sunshine would be a real bonus....let's not too greedy just yet though.

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GFS continues yesterday's theme with westerlies this week and final LP on Sunday but with its associated trough further south than forecast earlier. Then ridge to Scandi and with HP developing further east than previously forecast (ca 1045 mb over Baltic through to Thu 26th and E-ly or SE-ly winds over UK. 

ECM closer to GFS than yesterday but still reluctant to develop HP as strongly wit centre further south and 1035mb over UK on Fri 20th

Ensembles agree to Mon 16th (a dip from present mild then recovering to LTA) after which much divergence. While mean is close to LTA, around 22nd the extremes are either 10C above or 10C below - take your pick from the 'postage stamps! Not much rain and what there is mainly in N or W. 

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Looks like yesterday - westerlies for the rest of this week with troughs in the stream for Fri & Sun. HP then builds, a bit more slowly than forecast yesterday but 1035mb over UK by Fri 20th and moving off to Baltic 1045mb by Mon 23rd and stronger SE-ly winds than previously. By Fri 27th HP has retrogressed to Iceland and with an LP approaching from south, easterly gales in Channel.

ECM positions the HP differently with ridge to Azores rather than Scandi on Fri 20th but much the same as GFS until then

Ensembles temp profiles rather changed from yesterday; mild pulses on 15th and Wed 18th and better agreement on a mild spell from Mon 23rd though Op and Control take a dip towards the end on Fri 27th. Very dry for the S. In the N England & Scotland. mild spells less pronounced and a bit more rain

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Thanks for your continued daily summaries DEW. In this rather dull "in between" period of the year they provide a good succinct overview of what the models are showing 👍

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Another solid easterly in FI - not really supported but it’s a recurring theme.

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