Regarding the medium range outputs, the two big boys seem to be heading towards a middle ground with low pressure never being too far away to the north of the UK but high pressure trying ever so hard to ridge in from the Azores thus putting us under a maritime-type south west airflow for the most part.

In other words, all very typical stuff but hopefully without the storminess and at least it'll be mild. 

Although that said, still very robust low heights over the polar region is making it difficult to break us here at the UK out of this rut.

GEFS tonight showing a strong Scandinavia high as a likely outcome out in FI with a fairly strong average.

As ever, probably gone in 12 hours

martin

We might get our third quasi snow event tonight. Considering just how relentlessly the Atlantic has dominated this winter, it hasn't been the worst ever for wintry weather by a long chalk - at least IMBY. Twice now we have had short events of snow falling and settling, not bucket loads, just a dusting, but loads more in the high Suffolk region, sadly where I Used to live. The last glancing low gave that area an inch, and fluffy proper snow.

With this persistent polar maritime spell their have been some notable wintry showery events. The GFS suggest more to come before the jet weakens and we get a long hinted pattern change.

The control shows this being more interesting - and so much bottled up cold could well spill down just as we close the door on this winter. It was about 1975 when a late March cold spell gave us 3 consecutive night time snow falls around the 25-27th of March, bright sunny days melted it swiftly, but -3 and blowing snow at night from some polar low features.
FI hints on this only so far, but probable...

The rain departs for France this week, but back for W Scotland next week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 Norwegians mountains look set for a real snow dump then, with average temps below zero (as they have been all winter, it's only the Baltic areas which have been above freezing)

GFS charts again varying day to day - currently this week has Atlantic influence with shallow but well defined LP crossing UK Wed/Thu (though BBC model has this well S in France).That HP which has been on and off the forecasts for a while now appears at the weekend (BBC has deep LP at that time) eventually presenting as a ridge to Scandi by Tue 10th but collapsing to westerlies again through to Wed 18th. The HP centre is never far from southern UK though and there are no Atlantic storms to be seen.

ECM agrees up to the weekend , but brings in a trough for Mon 9th (like the BBC) followed by a major storm just off the W coast on Wed 11th

Ens runs reflect this with good agreement on cool temps and dry to next weekend (except a pulse of rain and one mild day Thu 5th for England and Wales) after which every run tells a different story as regards temp, though all are generally dry.

Being Absent on TWO for about three months in a row.  
February goes out with a full month of North Atlantic Storms named.

And the first week of March continues changeable in all weather types.  Some more cold rainy and frosty weather is great to hope come true.

12th-14th March mild WSW winds with rain later.

Then chance of cold Northerly winds with High’s in East Central NE Europe, Low Pressure also under pressure as blocking NW Atlantic West Central Greenland High and Western N Atlantic high become locked in - Cold Northerly winds bringing low temperatures and sleet/ snow showers particularly in Ireland, N.  and NW England and Scotland etc etc.

They are models after all.  Nothing to get frustrated and upset about. Que Sera Sera.

Carry on checking the Models they could try to give us more chilly cold and wet weather.  But the concoction that is the PSW Zephyr will visit any part of Europe it wishes to.

Despite the EC32 I’m beginning to think there may well be a significant Arctic outbreak at some point in March. No real teleconnection data to back this up just a gut feeling and the law of Sod.

I knew you would show up after my post.

The North Atlantic Overturning Event AMO is going to happen.

The Pressure will be pushing this in Waves of Angular Momentum Spinning Arctic Low’s Far N Pacific, to SW S Alaska and SE to E NE USA, Low’s looping up and then lodged out by MLB High blocks West N Atlantic Greenland SE Canada NE USA etc.

The North Atlantic in mid March shall see us get mild SW and west winds that turn North NW and NNE- with Greenland East Canada NE USA blocking Central and NE Europe blocking High’s.

The SE Greenland Iceland and Western Norwegian Sea could gather Cold Arctic Airmass and send it to NW and Western Europe etc etc.

The GFS, UKMO, ICON and the GFS la la yay- are quite the prowess of this possible but not yet certain but increased chance yes it could not Flip or Flop but be organised such that arctic cold shots are possible as the Azores High will by Mid March 2020 migrate NW and merge with Greenland High P area.

00z, 12z and 18z runs pointing to some mild West SW winds from 11-12th March et all, maybe 13th as well.  It is what happens as it stretches Southwards and elongates SW to NE in Eastern N Atlantic in said period.

 GFS has LP over UK this week with well defined centre late Thu and N-ly winds to follow on Fri 6th, brief HP over the weekend but toppling and allowing strong W-ly through the following week to Sun 15th. Then HP re-asserting itself, rather uncertain ridge to Scandi at first, but with 1040mb NW Scotland on Thu 19th and light E-ly for the south of UK.

ECM similar but finishes with a 975mb storm for W Scotland on Fri 13th which is much weaker on GFS.

BBC Weather downplays the LP on Thu this week but is much keener on an unsettled weekend.

GEFS temps below normal to Tue 10th, then much scatter but more runs showing brief mild spell before dropping back to colder. Not much rain, though something for the S this week, late Wed or early Thu depending on model.

Jet stream breaking up and looping around (often with the N-ly component of the loop over the UK) and still with enough organisation for a strong flow off NW Scotland briefly around Mon 9th. Ukraine enjoying temps +10C above normal http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I like these daily posts DEW, they're a really good summary of the output, thanks

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

 

 

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

 

well it wouldn’t contain the word “snow” so I wouldn’t worry Saint 😉

 

well it wouldn’t contain the word “snow” so I wouldn’t worry Saint 😉

ECM 12z at day 10 looks alright, but I'm hoping that high really builds in and keeps our weather quiet.




GEFS weakens the high pressure signal beyond mid-month with more scatter and precip spikes developing.

 

 

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

 

indeed Saint They are no good for me either and i live less than 1/2 mile away from Dew  Mind you as fellow Chichestrians,  Dew and I  both know that the  chances of snow in Chichester this winter with the synoptics on offer are precisely zilch!

 

 

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

 

Don't wind me up! Or I'll do a week of posts each of which will all read "Heavy Snow is forecast for Lancashire tomorrow'

(The 'Heavy Snow' will be referring to your waistline, of course)

The demise of the jetstream has been perhaps exaggerated - for all that there's a bit of looping and buckling going on, it's fairly consistently strong across the UK Mon 9th - Wed 19th, which ties in with the increased rainfall shown for week 2 on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4. BBC Weather picking up the start of this activity, too.

GFS has rowed back on any idea of well-established HP over the UK. The HP centre is further south,  with occasional weak ridges extending northwards allowing westerlies for the most part, but around Thu 19th HP is blocking mid-Atlantic with northerlies. Meanwhile, a storm to watch on Sun 15th (975 mb Wales dragging in plar air)

ECM had already discarded the HP over the UK and also shows westerlies for the week or so ahead, though hinting at an earlier establishment of HP in mid-Atlantic by Fri 13th.

Ensembles for the South show a bump of mild air around Wed 11th, but otherwise most of the runs are below the seasonal norm, 2-3C lower before that, both Op and Control as much as 5C lower later (though they are amongst the coldest) Not a lot of rain on this model (contradicts above). The north and Scotland similar, though mild interlude less noticeable and more rain in the west.

 

 

They lack detail of what the weather's going to be like in my backyard on any given day. Poor effort.

 

ill look forward to reading yours then Saint    I'm only looking at trend this time of year, trends to something warmer ideally !

 

Don't wind me up! Or I'll do a week of posts each of which will all read "Heavy Snow is forecast for Lancashire tomorrow'

 

 

 

 

 

(The 'Heavy Snow' will be referring to your waistline, of course)