GFS has westerlies for the coming week with HP keeping tantalisingly close to the south so breezy but fine for S England and windy and wet for N Scotland, no doubt with occasional fronts trailing across the UK. This pattern disrupted around Sat 14th with deeper LP over Shetland combining with rise of pressure mid-Atlantic to give a few days of northerly winds. Then the HP centre moves across to Scotland Wed 18th and intense (1045mb) over the Baltic Sat 21st; we finish up with E or SE flow across the UK and LP over France which may affect Channel coasts.

ECM agrees though LP on 14th is weaker as are the northerlies it brings

Ensembles - temps agreed on up and down until Wed 11th, then less agreement but generally a degree or so below seasonal norm, until warming up after Thu 19th. Occasional rain, perhaps more than expected from synoptics in the S and snow row figures for the N iin the teens around 13th-15th. 

Another day, another poorly modelled lw track and at really short notice too. Interesting.

                 indeed I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with an inch of rain here on the SE coast today and cold with it 

If only it were January 

Well, any other January than this one.

Another day, another poorly modelled low track and at really short notice too. Interesting.

Depends which model - BBC and MetO wrong, GFS right to the extent that of the two days, Mon and Thu, that my wife is at the dementia centre, I decided s long ago as last Saturday to go out for a walk on the Downs on Mon and stay in to do the chores today, Thu

Another day, another poorly modelled low track and at really short notice too. Interesting.

 Yes this rain today is heavier , more persistent and further North than forecast. Models do not do well with channel lows .

 

Depends which model - BBC and MetO wrong, GFS right to the extent that of the two days, Mon and Thu, that my wife is at the dementia centre, I decided s long ago as last Saturday to go out for a walk on the Downs on Mon and stay in to do the chores today, Thu

Ah, that explains why I, as a very inexpert model watcher, was puzzled by the big rainfall spike (which has been showing for a few days) on the GFS ensemble plot for London, when the BBC and MetO forecasts had nothing to match it.  I've learned something there.

 

 Yes this rain today is heavier , more persistent and further North than forecast. Models do not do well with channel lows .

Unless of course they contain snow, in which case they will always dive further south.

 

 Yes this rain today is heavier , more persistent and further North than forecast. Models do not do well with channel lows .

Garage flooded again 

Would have been nice to get some warning. When will this relentless rain end?

beast from the east

 

Garage flooded again 

Would have been nice to get some warning. When will this relentless rain end?

 

I think pretty much the whole country is asking that question!

 

Garage flooded again 

Would have been nice to get some warning. When will this relentless rain end?

 

I kind of get  where  he's coming from :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2yDzLuBG8

Jet stream still strong esp Mon 9th but breaking up by Mon 16th and forming ct-off LP over Spain by the end of that week

GFS shows westerlies with controlling LP mostly well to the north (though closer to Scotland on Tue 10th) until Sat 14th. Then HP first over N Sea, later a second centre over Ireland but then LP develops over the UK on Thu 19th moving off southwards to form that cut-off low referred to above. ECM similar.

Ens temps up and down for a while; definitely down around the 14th, after which the runs diverge but mostly on the cool side. Not much rain, and what there is mostly in N and W. Expected spike on Thu 19th (see above) not showing at all.

Jet stream brings strong winds again on the 10th. PSJ area will have them during the daytime. 

Hi to all on here!.

To sum the Current to day 5-8 range out, aka Sunday the 16th,  we have Chilly and Cold weather- Saturday and today across UK, then fresh and chilly Windy wet Sunday.

Milder weather on Monday with later Wet windy rainy conditions- the North Colder Tuesday and Wednesday with Rain in West to East via through Central parts in particular and strong winds as well.

Brief Weak High Ridging in South.  Chilly cold with heavy rain moving SE with rain hail sleet hill snow showers Thursday and Friday next week with Low Pressure over UK and to our N NE as well.

Saturday 14th, Low Pressure to our NE with Low P rear end trof showers, remains near average temp wise, then SW UK improves with Azores High come South Central UK for Sunday 15th and Monday 16th March, Zonal Lows going over UK high over N NW Atlantic,  Cold PV Low to Norwegian Sea and Newfoundland et all NW Atlantic corner.  Large blocking Greenland High.

Quite cold by Thursday and Friday March 12-13th.

The ECM doesn't really want to let it go with the Atlantic oriented theme going by their 12z run. Watch how the GFS's more positive take on the high pressure theme for the third week of March slowly evaporate as we get nearer to the time, like it has been doing so all winter.

This extended Autumn just doesn't want to die.

The ECM doesn't really want to let it go with the Atlantic oriented theme going by their 12z run. Watch how the GFS's more positive take on the high pressure theme for the third week of March slowly evaporate as we get nearer to the time, like it has been doing so all winter.

This extended Autumn just doesn't want to die.

end of next week could well be wet again 

This evening's ECM ensemble shows the mean 2m temperature returning to 8 or 9C this time next week, and simply staying there for the foreseeable.

We seem to have been seeing this diagram every 12 hours since early November. You could call it an endless autumn, but when you're talking day after day of single-figure maxes in the rain, I'd call it the longest winter I've ever known. 

The numbers might say this has been the 10th mildest winter since records began, yet it's achieved that with zero days of mildness. Four months of cold, wet miserable weather. And counting.

GFS: continuing westerlies for this week, nothing specially stormy, westerlies also to some extent for next though transient areas of HP keep appearing from the south; the first proper block appears on Sat 21st with 1040mb over Scotland on Mon 23rd (but note that this model keeps offering HP always in the far distance!)

ECM does produce a storm on Sun 15th after a week of westerlies with northerly to follow.

GEFS cool 9th, mild 11th, cool almost cold on 14th, little agreement after that but mean of runs recovering slowly to seasonal norm by 20th. Small amounts of rain around, rather more of it in the W