After this weekend with troughs in the westerly stream passing through, high pressure is around for the next couple of weeks. GFS still not certain on how it develops - today's version is Wed 18th 1030mb over the S with link to Atlantic centre; the latter moves N to Scotland Sat 21st 1045mb with N or NE winds developing; then to Baltic Wed 25th 1040mb with ridge to UK and E-ly winds; further E again by Sat 28th and new centre over Iceland at that time with slack LP over UK. Complex, but not the simple HP centred over the UK as suggested yesterday.

ECM similar though more of a ridge to Europe on Sat 21st which means less of the N/NE-lies

GEFS  cool-mild-cool-mild to 18th then down to 5C below normal on 21st, mean of runs recovering to normal but with plenty of scatter. Dry in the S, a little rain at first and around the 18th in the N (though just one run has a startling peak of 25mm rain on the 20th in the S).

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After this weekend with troughs in the westerly stream passing through, high pressure is around for the next couple of weeks. GFS still not certain on how it develops - today's version is Wed 18th 1030mb over the S with link to Atlantic centre; the latter moves N to Scotland Sat 21st 1045mb with N or NE winds developing; then to Baltic Wed 25th 1040mb with ridge to UK and E-ly winds; further E again by Sat 28th and new centre over Iceland at that time with slack LP over UK. Complex, but not the simple HP centred over the UK as suggested yesterday.

ECM similar though more of a ridge to Europe on Sat 21st which means less of the N/NE-lies

GEFS  cool-mild-cool-mild to 18th then down to 5C below normal on 21st, mean of runs recovering to normal but with plenty of scatter. Dry in the S, a little rain at first and around the 18th in the N (though just one run has a startling peak of 25mm rain on the 20th in the S).

Well we could certainly do with that. However what we really need is some early spring warmth with it too, would help slow the Coronavirus spread to a degree.

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  At this time of year a week of sunny weather to wake up the trees should draw a lot of that liquid away

This year is a marked contrast to last year, when the lack of moisture in the soils around here meant that the trees were delayed from coming into leaf until there was some rain.  That certainly won't be a problem this spring!

 

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GEFS  cool-mild-cool-mild to 18th then down to 5C below normal on 21st, mean of runs recovering to normal but with plenty of scatter. Dry in the S, a little rain at first and around the 18th in the N (though just one run has a startling peak of 25mm rain on the 20th in the S).

I noticed that too.  I think it must have gone off on one.

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Well we could certainly do with that. However what we really need is some early spring warmth with it too, would help slow the Coronavirus spread to a degree.

I'm a bit confused as to whether warmth is necessarily a good thing. On the BBC website this morning:

Susan Michie, professor of health psychology at University College London, said "nobody has the right answer" when it comes to tackling the virus.

However, she said having sports events played behind closed doors could be counterproductive as it might instead lead people to gathering in pubs "in the warmth, where viruses love it".

I wonder whether it might turn out that high pressure alone is the significant factor in stopping the spread of viruses. It's long been known in horse racing that when a particular stable's horses have been running badly owing to a virus, what clears it up is a freeze-up. In this country that means high pressure being in control in winter (i.e. the opposite to the one we still seem to be in). Maybe it's as simple as a lack of wind preventing these viruses being blown about.

Anyway, let's hope the bullseye col shown at day 8 on the ECM this morning comes off.

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Again a decent easterly from next weekend. -12 uppers creeping in. Even for late March this could deliver snow showers.
Perhaps this late late show is sliding in under the radar?

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Why?0 - oh well - least it would be drier, if this came about! 

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Are models picking up on this major SSW potential? - hence showing an easterly in recent models and Scandi HP!?

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Just having a look at snow cover over Eurasia:

Remarkable a how much it has receded and snowline never really made it to eastern Europe either. Southern Scandinavia and Baltics are snow free - even the Ukraine and it's only early March still. Little if any snow over Alps and virtually nothing over Pyrenees! Wow. If anyone wants to go skiing then Norway is best or Maybe Turkey is best but even that looks patchy there.  

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06 Operational @ 240z

 

06z Control @ 240z:

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While us here at Kent will (or rather, should) do well out of next week's ridge of high pressure moving in from the Azores thus bringing some welcome dry weather our way, it seems that other parts of the UK may be less fortunate with wavering weather fronts being strung through the middle part of the country. I suspect that may bring even more unwanted high rainfall amounts to Cumbria, Northern Ireland and surrounding areas by the middle part of next week.

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Snow row up to 17 now for London on the latest ENS ( next weekend )

Snow row up to 17 now for London on the latest ENS ( next weekend )

But take this together with the total pptn forecast and you get about one snowflake per sq foot?

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But take this together with the total pptn forecast and you get about one snowflake per sq foot?

Depends. Optimal flow & optimal alignment would bring in -12/-13 isotherm, thats only 1 degree off the BFTE 2018 so if that was to occur then heavy snow showers would be the order of the day.

But thats a long long way away, at the very least winds swing northerly at day 6> 7 introducing much colder air circa -7c- after that theres a moderate chance of Easterlies > depth TBC

Just having a look at snow cover over Eurasia:

Remarkable a how much it has receded and snowline never really made it to eastern Europe either. Southern Scandinavia and Baltics are snow free - even the Ukraine and it's only early March still. Little if any snow over Alps and virtually nothing over Pyrenees! Wow. If anyone wants to go skiing then Norway is best or Maybe Turkey is best but even that looks patchy there.  

Still plenty of snow in Lapland. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/sky-eye-gallery.aspx?id=20200313164650_20200313&user=brian%20gaze&ut=Rovaniemi&uc=&ucr=Finland&ud=Car%20buried%20in%20the%20snow&lat=51.8&lon=-0.6

 

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Just having a look at snow cover over Eurasia:

Remarkable a how much it has receded and snowline never really made it to eastern Europe either. Southern Scandinavia and Baltics are snow free - even the Ukraine and it's only early March still. Little if any snow over Alps and virtually nothing over Pyrenees! Wow. If anyone wants to go skiing then Norway is best or Maybe Turkey is best but even that looks patchy there.  

I think you’d find the snow in the Alps is magnificent, exactly where it needs to be - on the ski slopes, but not much in the valleys. And I think you’d find , increasingly, that it’s not lack of snow that’s the problem, but lack of operating lifts.

Quite a cold cluster of ENS appearing of sub -10c @ 850hpa from 21st March - be interesting to see what the 18z ENS show:

 

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Still a decent chance of a puddle of dry -10 uppers affecting the UK next weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the s word mentioned in a few forecasts in the next few days.

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Jet loping around for the coming week, splitting into N and S branches either side of UK by Sat 21st and cut-off low over Europe; looping back again a week later. UK gets a N-ly flow from the loop pattern on Sat 21st and again from Sat 28th.

GFS' current version of HP is to place it over S England on Tue 17th, meandering N-wards to centre over Scotland 1040mb Sat 21st and off to Baltic by Thu 26th. This fades but new centre 1050 mb Iceland Mon 26th. This with LP over France, gives a period of N/NE/E  winds from Sat 21st onwards. ECM the same to Sat 21st but no LP over France and new westerly flow over Scotland by Tue 24th

ENS runs mild--xool-mild to 19th Mar, then definitely cold around Mon 23rd with many runs 10C below normal, recovering to normal or a bit below by Mon 30th. Occasional rain but not much; snow row figures quite high for E coast for a couple of days around Sun 22nd but not much depth of pptn - local snow showers only?

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The cold looks pretty nailed on next weekend.  There will be snow showers in prone eastern locations.  If the uppers get below -12 we could be looking at accumulations of snow over the hills.  I did not hold back in my view expressed earlier in the winter that the coldest part would be the end, and this year the very end of astronomical winter looks like being the coldest.  This will be reflected in the CET at the month's end.

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Looking colder next weekend for sure and if the ECM and GFS verify snow showers would be the order of the day, particularly the SE.

HOWEVER

UK at 144 does not model the incoming easterly in quite the same way and could actually turn out fairly springlike if that little low undercuts the HP cell to bring in some very mild air,

GEM would bring a lovely fine and sunny weekend with average daytime maxes with any real cold stuff edging into Europe.

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