Indeed, Gusty, am Seeing some juicy easterlies in the medium range outputs that would have us salivating in late January. But, noooo, we are in March now which is about as welcome as someone having a coughing fit in a packed out lift.
Still, it is helping to put the brakes on the Atlantic train and give us a better chance of prolonged dry weather anyway.

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Still a decent chance of a puddle of dry -10 uppers affecting the UK next weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the s word mentioned in a few forecasts in the next few days.

yes - the GFS has been the better model at times this winter, but I do wonder if it will be as good modelling this blocked pattern as effectively as the westerly zonal mush we have  'enjoyed' this winter. If it is right, we can expect our winter to begin in our spring and might see mornings with snow lying, just to melt by 10.00am as the sun rises, but it could mean some dry, bright sunny fare and frosty nights, so nothing not to like there. If it tilts a little like ECMF then, cold could turn to spring very quickly - all much more fun to discuss than I-Corona (can't get that song out of my head)!! Winter has been misery enough, especially after all that Brexit botheration, so let's hope the 'C - V' is the third and last bad event for a decent period, and we might get a waft of delightful crystalline spring snow to set the heart beating a little faster, before the boredom of self isolation and economic gloom descends upon us....perhaps next winter will see the big freeze, just to contradict the enevitable trend - and send the CC deniers off on one....

interesting to see if the dramatic drop off in air travel diminishes global dimming and we see a surge in temps this summer though, but winter will be more about the oceans and cycles than the air temps, but it will still impact....

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Temp @ 10hpa right over top of pole is 0c @ 222. Wow! Most SSW temp rises to -15 or up to -10 @ max! What's the record warm stratosphere temp @ 10hpa and could it ever rise above 0c? Also is the onset of a SSW caused by the developing easterly QBO? - Because for the past 3 months or more temperatures have been well below average in the strat which has coincided with a strong PV!? - Can't wait to see the end of this strong PV, fast moving jet and record breaking zonality. Love how the PV has been split!?

I also wonder if some of the models like ECM and GFS are now starting to pick up on this as a troposheric response!?

Remember end of March 2008?

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GFS GEFS continues its Easterly theme 

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GFS GEFS continues its Easterly theme 

If only this occurred in winter to bring us snow showers and cold fresh continental air! I knew this would happen as soon as Spring starts!

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GFS GEFS continues its Easterly theme 

Control colder than OP, but a group going for -11 for a few days.

It’s understandably not the ramping frenzy you might expect in February with this, but it’s definitely of interest and a surprise or two is possible.

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Bbc at lunchtime were hyping the spring like weather next week but that it could feel a bit cooler next weekend looks like it could be pretty cold for a day or two!

Finally H.P. to look forward to, but it's sod's law with the positioning of the cell that the S.E. quadrant could still get rain or showers coming down from the North Sea. 

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Yes it's all down to the location of that high. It's modelled to eventually sit over Sweden, which is ideal, if only it were February....still possible to see some temporary snow falls overnight / am.

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GFS a bit slower to develop 'that' HP this morning - still over France on Wed 18th but transferring to Scotland by Fri 20th with weak northerlies , then on to Denmark by  Mon 23rd with strong SE-lies, to Poland on Sat 28th with new LP to the NW of the UK with mild S-ly and finally a sort of col between HP over Scandi and Span. The exact location is going to make a big difference to temps and the forecast of its position is far from settled.

ECM similar but inclines to more E-ly than N-ly

GEFS mild on Wed 18th, cold on Sat 21st - some runs v.cold but mean 'only' 5C below normal and recovering to normal by Wed 25th onwards. However, a notably broad scatter (esp in the S) 21st-25th reflecting uncertainty above. Dry on the whole but the N has a spike on Thu 19th

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GFS a bit slower to develop 'that' HP this morning - still over France on Wed 18th but transferring to Scotland by Fri 20th with weak northerlies , then on to Denmark by  Mon 23rd with strong SE-lies, to Poland on Sat 28th with new LP to the NW of the UK with mild S-ly and finally a sort of col between HP over Scandi and Span. The exact location is going to make a big difference to temps and the forecast of its position is far from settled.

ECM similar but inclines to more E-ly than N-ly

GEFS mild on Wed 18th, cold on Sat 21st - some runs v.cold but mean 'only' 5C below normal and recovering to normal by Wed 25th onwards. However, a notably broad scatter (esp in the S) 21st-25th reflecting uncertainty above. Dry on the whole but the N has a spike on Thu 19th

totally agree, it's all down to fine margins on the high's location, could be anything from dryish freezer to dryish Spring warmth, and all points in between. Possibly well get all of it as the HP wobbles around, but I think the models had over played the cold and  all we'll see is a couple of frosty mornings and then gradual warming up from there.

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Ensembles are showing a wide 15c spread 7-10 days time (22nd - 25th)

That’s a lot of uncertainty, so suggests the location of low and high pressures is not determined yet, or more likely it is a transitory scenario where timing is uncertain. I suspect it is latter because if you look at individual lines they are not staying a low or high temperatures for few days but have some very large moves, some from almost min to max in hours. To me that suggests that a very strong weather front is in there (and luckily no big rainfall totals)

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

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Still all to play for today if you fancy a last grasp at winter esp in the SE
UKMO very cold & many GEFS ens very cold as well
PTB 1 is almost identical to UKMO 144 which then goes onto developing a deep upper air cold pool to the East moving over the UK at 180

Still all to play for today if you fancy a last grasp at winter esp in the SE
UKMO very cold & many GEFS ens very cold as well
PTB 1 is almost identical to UKMO 144 which then goes onto developing a deep upper air cold pool to the East moving over the UK at 180

 

I'll take anything to drive the CET figure down for this month.

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BBC now saying the outlook is different. Shows the high across the continent with milder south or southeast winds across the UK end of this week. Jubbly

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Spring sandwich anyone? Looks like mild to very mild, then very cold weather filters in from the east, possibly with a snow shower in the SE, before mild weather comes in from the south east ot SW, but all under the influence of a mega high - the like of which has been absent for most of this winter.

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Is my memory playing tricks again or didn't we get a near record breaking H.P. earlier this year?

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Westerlies to Wed then HP building (though a trailing front over the Channel) to centre over Scotland Fri/Sat ca 1040mb; moving off to Scandi Tue 24th with E/SE winds; followed by col/slack LP between Scandi and Azores HP until the latter asserts itself  and briefly moves closer before the Atlantic comes back with SW-lies Mon 30th even gales with LP approaching Wed 1st. Apart from this Friday, N-lies no longer in GFS script

ECM similar but has HP centred over UK Thu 26th only 1025 mb rather than a col.

GEFS normal temp to Wed 18th in N, but mild in S and lasting a day or two longer, cold by Sat 21st, but much more briefly than previously forecast; mean of runs back above normal from Mon 23rd and staying there. Mostly dry, a little rain here and there now and then.

AFTERTHOUGHT: waves on the trailing low is push the HP into spreading itself further east and thus suppressing the possible N-ly

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Some remarkable charts still appearing with a hugely negative NAO likely going towards April.
If only it was . . .

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Jetstream still across the UK to Wed, then breaking into two, N & S of Britain to Mon 23rd when the northern arm becomes dominant, then later that week the southern arm. The latter, with a bit of meandering, continues through to Thu 2nd, always well clear of the UK.

GFS 0z has westerlies until HP develops over Scotland (1040mb Orkney Sat 21st) . HP then moves off to Scandi with SE-ly winds and by Fri 27th is far enough away to allow slack LP over the UK; a more definite LP  centre by Mon 30th,  and finally the threat of a S-ly tracking low from the Atlantic on Thu 2nd.

ECM 0z differs after Sat 21st with HP moving S, not E, westerlies over N of UK for a while until the HP is centred over the UK 1035mb Thu 26th.

GEFS runs showing less agreement than yesterday. Briefly mild in S then cool at the weekend around 21st with a little rain after which temps could do anything - mean stays close to norm but that looks meaningless with so much divergence. Op and control together about 5C below norm around the next weekend. Mostly dry but more rain appearing at end of run at beginning of April. More agreement between runs for the N & Scotland, the 'cool' period mentioned above is definitely cold and is a day or so longer at each, also less rain than S both at first (doesn't match what's on the BBC) and later.

Outlook uncertain

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