I know in the current situation it is easy to lose track of time, but did I lose two months somewhere? 

Read the context of what I wrote. I said the BBC long range has flipped and written off June and July.

To me, that's summer. Yes it can change for August, but by which time, the vast majority of the summer has past, and from the signals I'm picking up, August will be pretty awful too, so summer could have gone (we had it in April and May).

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Read the context of what I wrote. I said the BBC long range has flipped and written off June and July.

To me, that's summer. Yes it can change for August, but by which time, the vast majority of the summer has past, and from the signals I'm picking up, August will be pretty awful too, so summer could have gone (we had it in April and May).

I did more than read the context I actually read the BBC forecast and it does not write off all of summer. It suggests that July may have a cooler more unsettled start:

”Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

From that you concluded “this summer is gone”.

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I did more than read the context I actually read the BBC forecast and it does not write off all of summer. It suggests that July may have a cooler more unsettled start:

”Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

From that you concluded “this summer is gone”.

Let me rephrase then. We've had our summer in April and May, in my opinion, and from taking a broad look at the near range models and the background signals from the longer range models. In my opinion, the writing is on the wall, as I am a firm believer that once a general pattern sets up, it gives us a very good signal for a season ahead. 😊

 

As a caveat, I am happy to be proven wrong, and I have been in the past. I will be around to take whatever stick comes my way if I am wrong, but my view is we have had as good as it will get this year.

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Let me rephrase then. We've had our summer in April and May, in my opinion, and from taking a broad look at the near range models and the background signals from the longer range models. In my opinion, the writing is on the wall, as I am a firm believer that once a general pattern sets up, it gives us a very good signal for a season ahead. 😊

 

As a caveat, I am happy to be proven wrong, and I have been in the past. I will be around to take whatever stick comes my way if I am wrong, but my view is we have had as good as it will get this year.

 

Go and re read the BBC long range forecasts they were going for a wet May at times and a dry June. It's impossible to accurately forecast the weather for the UK beyond 2 weeks at the very most. At no point did they mention we would get the driest, sunniest Spring of all time. 

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Wednesday 17 Jun - Friday 26 Jun

The start of the period will be rather mixed, with all parts of the UK seeing some sunny spells. Scattered showers are also possible; however, confidence is low in determining exact areas. The showers may be heavy and merge into longer spells of rain at times with a risk of thunder also, although thunder seems most likely in southern or southwestern parts of the UK. The best of the drier and sunnier weather will probably be in the northwest, with a low probability that more widely dry weather could become established. Eastern coasts look to be cooler with mist here at the start of the period. Elsewhere though temperatures should be warm or very warm at times.

Saturday 27 Jun - Saturday 11 Jul

Changeable conditions continuing through the end of June and into July with periods of dry, brighter and more settled weather being interspersed with showers or at times some longer spells of rain. The rain looks to be largely in northwestern areas with drier spells in the east and southeast. Temperatures mainly around average for the time of year but with some very warm spells likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Read the context of what I wrote. I said the BBC long range has flipped and written off June and July.

To me, that's summer. Yes it can change for August, but by which time, the vast majority of the summer has past, and from the signals I'm picking up, August will be pretty awful too, so summer could have gone (we had it in April and May).

But until a few days ago the BBC long range forecast for June was for a fine month. That ought to tell you about the reliability (or otherwise) of long range forecasts!

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Basically nobody has a f***ing clue.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

_________________________________

Saturday 13 June – Sunday 21 June

Warm and humid, with showers and thunderstorms.

This weekend will be fairly warm and rather humid, as low pressure over the Bay of Biscay draws in air from the southeast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds, and downpours all possible where thunderstorms do develop. Not everyone will see these showers though, and there should be some sunny spells away from the showers. It will be warm this weekend, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 20s Celsius quite widely.

There will be a similar theme through the new working week, with mostly warm, humid conditions, and scattered showers developing on most days. Showers will be most frequent in the north and west, and with a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms for these areas too. Generally temperatures will be a little above average for the time of year, and the nights will be quite mild and humid.

Later in the week and into the weekend, high pressure extending in from the southwest of the UK should limit the development of showers for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, leading to dry conditions for many, with some sunshine. However, there will still be a few afternoon showers around, but these should not be widespread, nor frequent.

Later in the weekend, an area of low pressure over the North Atlantic is likely to edge closer to the northwest of the UK. This may introduce some rain for Sunday, being most likely in the north and west of the country. This may also introduce some breezier, cooler conditions to end the weekend. However, at this stage there is some uncertainty on the track of low pressure in from the west, and so there are uncertainties on the details.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

Low pressure nearby at the end of the previous period will persist into the start of this period, and this will likely result in some wet, breezy and cool conditions for the UK. Spells of rain will be most prevalent in the north and west of the country. Meanwhile, high pressure should build over continental Europe through this week, and so the wet and breezy conditions may struggle to reach into the far southeast of the UK.

With mainly westerly flows over the UK, temperatures will generally be around average, but with cloud and showers frequently affecting the north, temperatures in Scotland may be a little below average on the whole.

The risk to this forecast is that low pressure is more dominant across the entirety of the UK. This would result in the wet and breezy conditions being more widespread across the UK, perhaps with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 12 July

Showers in the north, dry and warm in the south

For the end of June and the start of July, there may well be a battle ground over UK between high pressure and low pressure. Low pressure troughs are expected over Iceland and northern Europe, and these are likely to extending into the UK at times. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to build to the southwest of the UK, extending into western Europe. With low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south and southwest, there may be a north-south split in the weather for the UK.

Northern areas can expect periods of wet, breezy and cool weather, whilst southern areas should be drier, calmer and warmer.

This potential north-south split to the weather is likely to be the general theme through the first half of July. Frequent showers are possible in north and west Scotland, making it wetter than average here. Meanwhile, southeast England may be largely dry. After an exceptionally dry spring for the southeast, long periods of dry weather here will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.

Further ahead

We will take a closer look at the forecast for the end of June, and through to the latter half of July. Will there be any periods of hot weather as we head towards the middle of summer?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 18 Jun - Saturday 27 Jun

The beginning of this period looks to remain rather changeable as the showery setup continues across much of the UK. Many areas are likely to see a mixture of bright or sunny spells and showers, some of which may turn heavy in places. Parts of the west and northwest may see cloudier and breezier conditions at times along with some outbreaks of rain. Across the south in particular, there is the risk of some spells of rain becoming heavy and possibly thundery. Throughout this period, most places will see temperatures near or a little above average. Coastal areas in the east may be the main exception with spells of persistent cloud potentially bringing cooler conditions at first.

Sunday 28 Jun - Sunday 12 Jul

Probably remaining fairly unsettled during the latter part of June with showers or longer spells of rain, these turning heavy and possibly thundery across the south. Despite the mixed conditions, all parts should still see some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures should generally be above average, possibly turning very warm in places. Around the turn of the month and into early July, a transition to more settled conditions is signalled with many seeing more prolonged drier and sunnier spells. However, there is still the chance of showers for most at times. Temperatures likely to return back to around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/ 

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Well while the BBC said “ Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.”

the Met now say “Around the turn of the month and into early July, a transition to more settled conditions is signalled with many seeing more prolonged drier and sunnier spells.”

Take your pick 🙂

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Friday 19 Jun - Sunday 28 Jun

The beginning of this period looks to remain rather changeable as the showery setup continues across much of the UK. Many areas are likely to see a mixture of bright or sunny spells and showers, some of which may turn heavy in places. Parts of the west and northwest may see cloudier and breezier conditions at times along with some outbreaks of rain. Across the south in particular, there is the risk of some spells of rain becoming heavy and possibly thundery. Throughout this period, most places will see temperatures near or a little above average. Coastal areas in the east may be the main exception with spells of persistent cloud potentially bringing cooler conditions at first.

Monday 29 Jun - Monday 13 Jul

Probably remaining fairly unsettled towards the end of June with showers or longer spells of rain, these turning heavy and possibly thundery across the south. Despite the mixed conditions, all parts should still see some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures should generally be above average, possibly turning very warm in places. Around the turn of the month and into early July, a transition to more settled conditions is signalled with many seeing more prolonged drier and sunnier spells. However, there is still the chance of showers for most at times. Temperatures likely to return back to around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Looks like a decent plumey thundery spell could be on the way.

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Looks like a decent plumey thundery spell could be on the way.

Been waiting for a decent plumey thundery spell for about 10 years......

Still waiting.

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Saturday 20 Jun - Monday 29 Jun

The beginning of this period looks to remain rather changeable as the showery setup continues across much of the UK. Many areas are likely to see a mixture of sunny spells and showers, some of which may turn heavy in places. Parts of the west and northwest may see cloudier and breezier conditions at times along with some outbreaks of rain. By contrast, many other areas are likely to see a more settled, warm period next week with some sunshine, before more changeable conditions possibly return more generally. However, confidence is low in this aspect. Throughout the period, temperatures should be generally near or a little above average. However, coastal areas in the east could still have some spells of persistent cloud accompanied by cooler conditions.

Tuesday 30 Jun - Tuesday 14 Jul

Probably remaining fairly unsettled at the end of June with showers or longer spells of rain, these turning heavy and possibly thundery across the south. Despite the mixed conditions, all parts should still see some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures should generally be above average, possibly turning very warm in places. In early July, a transition to more settled conditions is signalled with many seeing more prolonged drier and sunnier spells. However, there is still the chance of showers for most at times. Temperatures likely to return back to around average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 21 Jun - Tuesday 30 Jun

It is likely to be a changeable start to this period, with showers or some longer spells of rain, particularly for northwestern areas where it may be windy at times. Eastern and southern areas should have the driest and brightest conditions. However, there are signs of a more settled, dry spell becoming established for many parts during the early to middle part of next week. It will probably become generally warm, perhaps very warm in places, more especially for southeastern areas. However, the northwest may stay more changeable, whilst there is a risk of thunderstorms in some southern parts. More generally changeable and somewhat cooler conditions are likely to return again by the last weekend of June.

Wednesday 1 Jul - Wednesday 15 Jul

The first half of July will probably see mixed conditions, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers being mixed in with drier, brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter spells are likely in the east and south. However, there may also be some settled spells more widely across the country at times. As is usual this time of year, some thundery interludes are also likely, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the possibility of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 22 Jun - Wednesday 1 Jul

It is likely to be a changeable start to this period, with showers or some longer spells of rain, particularly in northwestern areas where it may be windy at times. Eastern and southern areas should have the driest and brightest conditions. However, there are signs of a more settled and dry spell of weather becoming established for many parts towards the middle part of the first week. It will probably become generally warm, perhaps very warm in places, especially for southeastern areas. However, the northwest may stay more changeable, whilst there is a risk of thunderstorms in some southern parts. More generally changeable and somewhat cooler conditions are likely to return again by the end of this period.

Thursday 2 Jul - Thursday 16 Jul

The first half of July will probably see mixed conditions, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers being mixed in with drier, brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter spells are likely in the east and south. However, there may also be some settled spells more widely across the country at times. As is usual this time of year, some thundery interludes are also likely, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the possibility of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

What is a “brief and very warm spell”? I didn’t think it was possible but the standard of English in these forecasts is getting worse.

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From our South East met office forecast just now....Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
Sunshine and showers on Friday. Mainly dry, warm and occasionally sunny on Saturday. Rain and brisk winds early Sunday, soon clearing to sunshine and a few showers. OK

Love the way it ends OK! it certainly sounds OK to me... albeit with my allotment hat on we could really do with some rain as we've missed all the heavy showers these last couple of days here in Chichester...

Wednesday 24 Jun - Friday 3 Jul

A fine, very warm spell is likely next week across many central and eastern areas and it will probably turn hot in places. Meanwhile northwestern parts will probably stay more unsettled with some rain and temperatures nearer to normal. Changeable, cooler conditions are likely to extend east to all areas by the last weekend of June, preceded by thunderstorms in places. It will probably then remain changeable and sometimes breezy with weather systems crossing the UK from the west, bringing bands of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods. Most of the rain will be in the northwest where it may be rather cool. Drier and sometimes warm conditions are likely in the east and south with a chance of some longer fine, dry spells in early July.

Friday 3 Jul - Friday 17 Jul

The first half of July will probably see mixed conditions, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers being mixed in with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter spells are likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled spells more widely across the country at times. As is usual this time of year, some thundery interludes are also likely, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the possibility of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/