BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Wet and breezy in the north and west at times
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Saturday 13 June – Sunday 21 June
Warm and humid, with showers and thunderstorms.
This weekend will be fairly warm and rather humid, as low pressure over the Bay of Biscay draws in air from the southeast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds, and downpours all possible where thunderstorms do develop. Not everyone will see these showers though, and there should be some sunny spells away from the showers. It will be warm this weekend, with temperatures reaching into the low to mid 20s Celsius quite widely.
There will be a similar theme through the new working week, with mostly warm, humid conditions, and scattered showers developing on most days. Showers will be most frequent in the north and west, and with a continued risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms for these areas too. Generally temperatures will be a little above average for the time of year, and the nights will be quite mild and humid.
Later in the week and into the weekend, high pressure extending in from the southwest of the UK should limit the development of showers for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, leading to dry conditions for many, with some sunshine. However, there will still be a few afternoon showers around, but these should not be widespread, nor frequent.
Later in the weekend, an area of low pressure over the North Atlantic is likely to edge closer to the northwest of the UK. This may introduce some rain for Sunday, being most likely in the north and west of the country. This may also introduce some breezier, cooler conditions to end the weekend. However, at this stage there is some uncertainty on the track of low pressure in from the west, and so there are uncertainties on the details.
Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June
Wet and breezy in the north and west at times
Low pressure nearby at the end of the previous period will persist into the start of this period, and this will likely result in some wet, breezy and cool conditions for the UK. Spells of rain will be most prevalent in the north and west of the country. Meanwhile, high pressure should build over continental Europe through this week, and so the wet and breezy conditions may struggle to reach into the far southeast of the UK.
With mainly westerly flows over the UK, temperatures will generally be around average, but with cloud and showers frequently affecting the north, temperatures in Scotland may be a little below average on the whole.
The risk to this forecast is that low pressure is more dominant across the entirety of the UK. This would result in the wet and breezy conditions being more widespread across the UK, perhaps with some heavy showers or longer spells of rain.
Monday 29 June – Sunday 12 July
Showers in the north, dry and warm in the south
For the end of June and the start of July, there may well be a battle ground over UK between high pressure and low pressure. Low pressure troughs are expected over Iceland and northern Europe, and these are likely to extending into the UK at times. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to build to the southwest of the UK, extending into western Europe. With low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south and southwest, there may be a north-south split in the weather for the UK.
Northern areas can expect periods of wet, breezy and cool weather, whilst southern areas should be drier, calmer and warmer.
This potential north-south split to the weather is likely to be the general theme through the first half of July. Frequent showers are possible in north and west Scotland, making it wetter than average here. Meanwhile, southeast England may be largely dry. After an exceptionally dry spring for the southeast, long periods of dry weather here will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers.
Further ahead
We will take a closer look at the forecast for the end of June, and through to the latter half of July. Will there be any periods of hot weather as we head towards the middle of summer?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook