BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning very warm for a time, but Lows threaten

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Wednesday 17 June – Sunday 21 June

Further showers and thunderstorms

The warm, humid and showery conditions will persist through the second half of the working week. On Wednesday and Thursday, thunderstorms are expected to develop once again, with southern England, central England, Wales, northwest England and southwest Scotland most likely to see the heaviest and most frequent of the showers. Frequent lightning, hail and heavy downpours are all possible in the these areas, bringing a risk of flash flooding in local spots.

Friday will be another day of showers, but this time the greatest risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be across Scotland. Later on Friday, showers should clear to give a spell of drier, calmer weather for a time, through Friday night and Saturday morning. However, with low pressure out to the northwest of the UK, it looks likely that a front will reach into Northern Ireland on Saturday afternoon, introducing outbreaks of rain and brisk winds. This front will track eastwards through the rest of Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning, bringing outbreaks of rain and breezy conditions for much of the UK.
The rain from this front will likely be heaviest in the north and west of the country, whilst southeast England may just see a spell of light rain. The front should clear on Sunday morning, but it will remain breezy through the rest of the day. Some showers are expected in the north and west of the country, whilst elsewhere it will be dry with some sunshine, particularly later on Sunday.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Wet and breezy in the north and west at times

Through early next week, high pressure is expected to reach in from the southwest of the UK. This will bring plenty of dry and warm weather to England and Wales, with sunny periods for many. However, areas of low pressure will continue to persist out to the northwest of the UK, and these will likely give some showers or longer spells of rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland at times, although predominately to northwest Scotland.

Into the middle of next week, high pressure will build across the south of the UK and allow warmth to build in from continental Europe, becoming very warm for Wednesday and Thursday, with a chance of temperatures reaching into the high 20s Celsius in southeast England. There is some uncertainty on how long this hot spell will last across the southeast of the UK, but it seems likely that high pressure will weaken by the weekend, perhaps with showers developing.

As we lose the high pressure, we open the door to areas of low pressure encroaching from the northwest, which could introduce some wetter, breezier and cooler weather. This is most likely in the north and west of the country, whilst the south and east may well keep hold of the dry and warm conditions for a little longer through the weekend.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 12 July

Showers in the north, dry and warm in the south

For the end of June and the start of July, there may well be a battle ground over UK between high pressure and low pressure. Areas of low pressure are expected to be over Iceland and northern Europe, and these are likely to extend into the UK at times. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to the southwest of the UK, extending into western Europe.

With low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south and southwest, there may be a north-south split in the weather for the UK. Northern areas can expect periods of wet, breezy and cool weather, whilst southern areas should be drier, calmer and warmer. This potential north-south split to the weather is likely to be the general theme through the first half of July. Frequent showers are possible in north and west Scotland, making it wetter than average here. Meanwhile, southeast England may turn out mostly dry, with just a few spells of rain.

After an exceptionally dry spring for the southeast, long periods of dry weather here will be unwelcome news for gardeners and growers. As we head towards the middle of July, it looks possible that there will be change in the weather pattern overhead. High pressure is expected to build over Europe and into the UK, which would result in increasingly dry, calm and warm conditions to much of the country.

Further ahead

We will take the forecast deeper into July. Could we see dry, calm and warm conditions developing in mid-July and persisting through the rest of the month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Lows dominant into July, but some heat next week

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Monday 22 June – Sunday 28 June

Turning very warm for most. Hot in the southeast.

This weekend will see the beginning of a shift away from the heavy slow-moving showers that have developed for much of the country this week. Instead, Atlantic weather systems will move in from the west and bring some faster-moving bands of rain and stronger winds. The first weather system will arrive late on Saturday and bring heavy rain and strong winds to western areas overnight and into Sunday morning. As the front heads further east early on Sunday the rain will turn lighter before clearing to the east. A second weather system will follow quickly behind on Sunday night and into Monday.

However, while we see weather fronts here in the UK, central Europe will see a building ridge of high pressure that will continue into next week. By Tuesday it will be large and strong enough to make its presence felt here, and winds will shift to southwest and southerly. This will cause the temperatures to climb, and by midweek most of the UK will be well above average. Some heat is expected in the southeast, while Scotland will be nearer to normal. This will lead to quite a north-south split in the temperatures for a few days.

By the end of the working week and into the weekend, temperatures are likely to slowly moderate to near normal again for the south as winds slowly shift to northwest. Some low pressure systems are expected to return by the weekend and bring some more unsettled weather, and things will become rather cool for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 29 June – Sunday 5 July

Fast-moving fronts keeping it wet, breezy in west

As the heat from next week eases into the end of June, the arrival of low pressure systems will be the start of a more long-term weather pattern shift. Large-scale low pressure troughs are expected to dominate the weather for northern Europe for the first half of July, and these will become more influential as we begin the month. High pressure will be pushed off into the Atlantic which will bring a westerly or northwest flow to the UK throughout the week. This will tend to keep temperatures cooler than late June, with some below normal temperatures for the northern half of the country and near-normal temperatures elsewhere.

This will also maintain the fast-moving weather fronts from the west, so rather than the slow, plodding thundery showers seen recently, we will have bands of rain moving in with clear, dry spells between. An overall unsettled and changeable pattern. As such, our confidence on any day-to-day specifics at this range is on the low side, but we have high confidence on the large-scale weather pattern. Fronts will be more frequent visitors to western and northern areas, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland, and Wales too. Southern and eastern parts of the country will see longer dry spells, but rain will not be a stranger here either.

Monday 6 July – Sunday 19 July

Wetter start to July but a drier second half

Early July will continue with the same large-scale weather pattern as low pressure areas continue to arrive from the west and northwest. This will mean it will continue to be rather changeable and more frequently wet and breezy for northern and western areas. However, this pattern is unlikely to last forever, and as we head into the second half of July, we should begin to see a gradual shift. High pressure is likely to become more influential in eastern Europe and is expected to extend into central Europe and Scandinavia too.

This will push the low pressure troughs into the Atlantic and slightly further away from the UK. What that means for the weather is that fronts will become weaker and slower-moving, and there is a greater risk for some very warm or hot southerly winds, similar to what we will see in late June. So, by the third full week of July we should expect a return of drier, sunnier, but hotter weather for most of the country while the western and northern fringes of Scotland cling on to some wetter weather.

Confidence is a bit lower on the exact timing of this pattern shift, though, as the latest computer models are struggling to pin anything down. In addition, a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic could disrupt things even as far away as Europe! So our long-range confidence this time of year tends to be a bit lower than normal.

Further ahead

With a few more model runs at our disposal we will take a closer look at middle and late July for the timing of the pattern shift and risk of further hot spells.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

That BBC long range is in line with my thoughts on a wet and cool July.

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Thursday 25 Jun - Saturday 4 Jul

The widely fine, hot conditions becoming established next week across most central, eastern and southern areas are likely to continue into Thursday. Meanwhile, northwestern parts will probably be more changeable with some rain and temperatures nearer to normal. Changeable, cooler conditions seem likely to extend slowly east to all areas by next weekend, preceded by thunderstorms in places. It will probably then remain changeable and sometimes breezy with weather systems crossing the UK from the west, bringing bands of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods. Most of the rain will be in the northwest where it may be rather cool. Drier and sometimes warm conditions are likely in the east and south with a chance of some longer fine, dry spells in early July.

Sunday 5 Jul - Sunday 19 Jul

The beginning of July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 26 Jun - Sunday 5 Jul

The widely fine, hot conditions becoming established next week across most central, eastern and southern areas are likely to continue into Friday. Meanwhile, northwestern parts will probably be more changeable with some rain or showers and temperatures nearer to normal. Changeable, cooler conditions seem likely to extend slowly east to all areas through next weekend, preceded by thunderstorms in places. It will probably then remain changeable and sometimes breezy with weather systems crossing the UK from the west, bringing bands of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods. Most of the rain will be in the northwest where it may be rather cool. Drier and sometimes warm conditions are likely in the east and south with a chance of some longer fine, dry spells in early July.

Monday 6 Jul - Monday 20 Jul

The beginning of July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The 6th till 20th forecast isn't really a forecast at all. Like so many of these Met Office outlooks, it simply describes the UK climate in July.

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That BBC long range is in line with my thoughts on a wet and cool July.

Really? Are you sure you have read their thoughts for July in full?

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The 6th till 20th forecast isn't really a forecast at all. Like so many of these Met Office outlooks, it simply describes the UK climate in July.

I think you have hit the nail on the head. That's exactly what it is.

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Really? Are you sure you have read their thoughts for July in full?

You mean this bit? 

“fronts will become weaker and slower-moving, and there is a greater risk for some very warm or hot southerly winds, similar to what we will see in late June. So, by the third full week of July we should expect a return of drier, sunnier, but hotter weather for most of the country while the western and northern fringes of Scotland cling on to some wetter weather.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

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Really? Are you sure you have read their thoughts for July in full?

I was wondering the same. It might be a bit cooler than average in the northwest but it says normal or slightly above average temperatures for the first half, and possibly hotter later. Which doesn't sound very cool to me.

So far the washout June has delivered just one very wet day here, and maybe three others with significant showers, and the temperature is likely to hit 30C on two days this week. If this is a washout summer then more of the same please 

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Saturday 27 Jun - Monday 6 Jul

The widely fine, hot conditions becoming established next week across most central, eastern and southern areas are likely to continue into Friday. Meanwhile, northwestern parts will probably be more changeable with some rain or showers and temperatures nearer to normal. Changeable, cooler conditions seem likely to extend slowly east to all areas through next weekend, preceded by thunderstorms in places. It will probably then remain changeable and sometimes breezy with weather systems crossing the UK from the west, bringing bands of rain interspersed with brighter, showery periods. Most of the rain will be in the northwest where it may be rather cool. Drier and sometimes warm conditions are likely in the east and south with a chance of some longer fine, dry spells in early July.

Tuesday 7 Jul - Tuesday 21 Jul

July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Was there ever a hedgier hedge than this hedgy forecast?

"July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells."

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Was there ever a hedgier hedge than this hedgy forecast?

"July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells."

I would say they are just playing it with a straight bat. It looks very average in the context of the warming seen in recent decades. 

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Was there ever a hedgier hedge than this hedgy forecast?

"July looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some thundery interludes are also possible, particularly in the south. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief and very warm spells."

Haha, whatever gave you that ldea Tim!

Confidence is low. Probably. Likely. There may also. Possible. Chance.

In summary, you think what was the point of a forecast/guess. I suppose someone does not get paid if they don't provide anything.

 

 

I would say they are just playing it with a straight bat. It looks very average in the context of the warming seen in recent decades. 

Straight copy day on day. If it wasn't for Moomin polishing his ark it would be quite boring 

 

I was wondering the same. It might be a bit cooler than average in the northwest but it says normal or slightly above average temperatures for the first half, and possibly hotter later. Which doesn't sound very cool to me.

So far the washout June has delivered just one very wet day here, and maybe three others with significant showers, and the temperature is likely to hit 30C on two days this week. If this is a washout summer then more of the same please 

Well if at first you don't succeed, as per Moomin's June forecast, try again in July  Sooner or alter we'll get a 2007/20012 repeat that he desperately craves. Doesn't look like being this year though 

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Well if at first you don't succeed, as per Moomin's June forecast, try again in July  Sooner or alter we'll get a 2007/20012 repeat that he desperately craves. Doesn't look like being this year though 

I definitely don't desperately crave that. I desperately crave a 2018 repeat, but we won't get that quite obviously.

 

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I definitely don't desperately crave that. I desperately crave a 2018 repeat, but we won't get that quite obviously.

 

Long way to go though Kieren. We're not even a full month into the meteorogical summer yet.

I guess that, back in early June 1995, if anyone at that time had said that the whole summer was going to be cool, dull and rather uninspiring, I guess not too many people would have argued with that and many would have likely discounted a rather quick change to heatwave conditions later in the month. 1990 was similar, was a rather mediocre early period followed by much better weather later on.

Never underestimate the ability of the UK's weather to surprise us, both in a good way and in a bad way.

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Straight copy day on day. If it wasn't for Moomin polishing his ark it would be quite boring 

Here's the advance copy for December:

"December looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some chillier interludes are also possible, particularly in the north. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief cold spells in the north."

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Here's the advance copy for December:

"December looks to be rather mixed, although confidence is low at this stage. On the whole, it will probably be changeable with spells of rain or showers mixed with drier and brighter interludes. The best of the drier, brighter weather seem likely in the south and east. However, there may also be some settled periods more widely across the UK at times. As is usual for this time of year, some chillier interludes are also possible, particularly in the north. Temperatures should be generally near or somewhat above average, with the chance of further brief cold spells in the north."

Shut up and take my money! 

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