Wednesday 10 Jun - Friday 19 Jun

After some sunshine and rain in places on Wednesday, the following days are likely to become more settled for most, with slightly above average temperatures. However, the northwest could see some windy conditions, along with heavy rain. The weekend is likely to be more unsettled with longer spells of rain in places, especially in the west and becoming windy in the north, at times. Across the southeast, there's a chance of some dry and warm conditions at the beginning of the weekend, but also a risk of thundery showers at times. The third week of June will be changeable, tending towards drier and settled conditions. Initially, temperatures are likely to be near average, perhaps increasing towards the end of June.

Saturday 20 Jun - Saturday 4 Jul

During the latter part of June, it will start to become more widely settled with longer and drier periods, interspersed with some showers and longer spells of rain. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Met office mid & long range outlook flip-flopping all over the place from each update to the next. a holes & elbows spring to mind. I wonder why the distinct lack of consistency at the moment.

This isn't really a surprise to me to be honest as the model output seems to be rather inconsistent at the moment.

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How disappointing the Met Office long ranger has become over the years, it's so poorly written and always covers all bases. I've much preferred the BBC equivalent recently, it's well written and informative.

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Totally agree.
The general narrative stays the same ‘winder with more cloud and chance of rain in the north west... warmer further south’.

I remember Bill Giles’ updates on bbc weather were far more accurate.
It’s as if no one can be bothered to put the effort in.
For example, the current text is in quite a contrast from today’s ensembles:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

June warmer than normal after an early cool spell

_________________________________

Saturday 6 June – Sunday 14 June

Cool and windy this weekend; some improvement next

This weekend will be a lot cooler, windier and wetter than it was a week ago. This is chiefly down to an unseasonably deep area of low pressure which developed over the North Sea on Friday. This low pressure system will remain close to the country through Saturday and will bring strong winds to many areas, with rain and heavy showers also expected. Temperatures will be below normal for the time of year, and more than 10 degrees Celsius lower than they were just a week or so ago. Sunday will see some improvement in conditions as the low pressure system weakens and moves away, but we still expect strong winds on some North Sea coasts.

​​​​​​​There will be rain too, this mainly for eastern counties, whilst other areas could see showers. It will be another cool day. Monday and Tuesday should see a continuation of this improving trend. A weak ridge of high pressure should bring largely dry weather to the country on both days, although some showers are possible locally and rain may move into Scotland and Northern Ireland later. There is a bit of uncertainty over the weather for the middle of next week. Some rain is likely to feature, but quite how much rain and how widespread it'll be is uncertain. The end of the week should see drier but not completely dry weather - that is there is a chance of some rain but it looks less unsettled than mid-week. There are signs that it will warm up by the weekend with temperatures perhaps lifting above normal in some areas.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 21 June

Mostly dry and warm but a chance of thunderstorms

After the changeable weather at the start of June, we should see a spell of more settled weather developing around the middle of the month. High pressure looks likely to become established over northern and north-eastern Europe and this should provide a fairly effective block to weather systems trying to come in from the Atlantic. As a result, most parts of the country will be relatively dry. The most likely exception to this dry picture is the south.

Showers, some heavy and thundery, are likely here and whilst they could drift further north, southern parts of the UK generally look wettest.The other big feature of this weather pattern is that it looks warmer than normal in all areas of the country. This is thanks to the broadly southerly winds we expect to persist for much of the week. The main risk to our expected pattern is that Atlantic low pressure systems manage to push a bit further east, resulting in cooler, wetter and windier weather affecting the UK.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 5 July

Dry and warm to end June; cooler, less settled in

There shouldn't be any major changes to the weather pattern as we move into the last full week of June, as high pressure over northern Europe still looks like the main driving feature of our weather. In fact, there are some signs that this area of high pressure could drift a little further west which, with low pressure in the Atlantic, would tend to promote even warmer weather due to stronger southerly winds. Whilst high pressure should keep things relatively dry, we could still see heavy and thundery showers in some areas.

There could be a pattern change as we move into July. There are signs that the weather will become cooler and more unsettled, although considering that the previous couple of weeks are expected to be dry and warm or very warm that could be somewhat of a relief for some. There is a lot of uncertainty at this stage though and there's a reasonable chance that the settled, dry and warm weather could continue into July.

Further ahead

Whilst June looks dry and warm, will the change to a cooler and more unsettled July still look any more or less likely?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office CPF May update

June to August

Temperature summary

For June-July-August as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for June-July-August will fall into the coldest of our five categories is less than 5%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-jja-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For June-July-August as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for June-July-August will fall into the driest of our five categories is 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-jja-v2.pdf

Moomin did not write that one.

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 UK to be hit with rain, gales and thunderstorms as temperatures drop

https://news.sky.com/story/weather-uk-to-be-hit-with-rain-gales-and-thunderstorms-as-temperatures-drop-12001488

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Thursday 11 Jun - Saturday 20 Jun

The start of the period is likely to see, scattered showers and longer spells of rain interspersed with periods of drier and sunnier weather. Western areas will see the worst of any wet weather whilst the southeast will have the best of any sunshine. However, there is a risk of some thundery showers developing across the south and east of the country. It will be windy at times, especially across northern regions. Temperatures are likely to be above average initially but trend towards normal towards the middle of the period. The changeable weather pattern is likely to persist till the end of the period. Though there will be periods of dry and settled weather at times.

Sunday 21 Jun - Sunday 5 Jul

The changeable conditions are likely to continue into July, with periods of drier and more settled conditions interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Flip flop, flip flop.

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Friday 12 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

The first few days of the period, including next weekend and into the start of the following week, should see the driest brightest weather across northern areas of the UK, particularly western Scotland. Elsewhere, conditions will be rather changeable with some sunshine but also areas of rain or showers. Thunderstorms are also likely in places. Many parts will become warm, perhaps very warm, particularly northwestern areas. However, mist and low cloud will probably affect east coasts at times, making it cooler here. For the rest of the period confidence is low. However, conditions will probably be mixed, with periods of dry, bright weather, but also some spells of cloud and rain, perhaps accompanied by stronger winds. Temperatures will probably continue to be above average generally.

Monday 22 Jun - Monday 6 Jul

The changeable conditions are likely to continue into July, with periods of drier and more settled conditions interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, at times. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 12 Jun - Sunday 21 Jun

The first few days of the period, including next weekend and into the start of the following week, should see the driest brightest weather across northern areas of the UK, particularly western Scotland. Elsewhere, conditions will be rather changeable with some sunshine but also areas of rain or showers. Thunderstorms are also likely in places. Many parts will become warm, perhaps very warm, particularly northwestern areas. However, mist and low cloud will probably affect east coasts at times, making it cooler here. For the rest of the period confidence is low. However, conditions will probably be mixed, with periods of dry, bright weather, but also some spells of cloud and rain, perhaps accompanied by stronger winds. Temperatures will probably continue to be above average generally.

Monday 22 Jun - Monday 6 Jul

The changeable conditions are likely to continue into July, with periods of drier and more settled conditions interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, at times. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The quality of writing on these is getting worse and worse. Do they even read them back after scrawling them out?

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Saturday 13 Jun - Monday 22 Jun

Over the weekend northern areas of the UK should see the driest and brightest weather, particularly western Scotland but with showers or longer spells of rain possible in the east. Elsewhere, conditions will be rather changeable and breezy for many with some sunshine but also areas of rain or showers. Thunderstorms are also likely in places. Many parts will become warm, perhaps very warm, particularly northwestern areas. However, mist and low cloud will probably affect east coasts at times, making it cooler here. For the rest of the period confidence is low. However, conditions will probably be mixed, with periods of dry, bright weather, but also some spells of cloud and rain, perhaps accompanied by stronger winds. Temperatures will probably continue to be above average generally.

Tuesday 23 Jun - Tuesday 7 Jul

The changeable conditions are likely to continue through the end of June and into July, with periods of drier and more settled conditions interspersed with showers or longer spells of rain, at times. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 14 Jun - Tuesday 23 Jun

Dry on Sunday for many with sunny spells after any patchy fog clears. Northeastern parts however may see some rain or drizzle with scattered, perhaps heavy, showers in the west and southwest. The weather becomes rather mixed through the rest of the period with all parts seeing some drier and sunnier spells but with but the chance of showers developing. The showers may be heavy and merge into longer spells of rain at times with a risk of thunder also, although thunder mainly in southern or southwestern parts of the UK. Northwestern areas will likely see the best of any drier and sunnier conditions. Eastern coasts will often be cooler with mist here at the start of the period. Elsewhere though temperatures will be warm or very warm at times.

Wednesday 24 Jun - Wednesday 8 Jul

Changeable conditions continuing through the end of June and into July with periods of dry, brighter and more settled weather being interspersed with showers or at times some longer spells of rain. The rain looks to be largely in northwestern areas with drier spells in the east and southeast. Temperatures mainly around average for the time of year but with some very warm spells likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning warm for a time. Cooler again later.

_________________________________

Wednesday 10 June – Sunday 14 June

Wet and windy for a time. Warmer this weekend.

Wednesday to Friday this week looks set to be unsettled for many with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. The rain will be accompanied by a fresh or strong easterly wind on Thursday and Friday, with some strong gusts for the time of year. There should be significant rainfall for areas that have experienced a deficit of rain since the early spring, including eastern and southern areas of the UK.

There is a chance of occasional thunder mixed in with the rain, too. However, northern and western Scotland will tend to become drier and brighter through the next few days. This weekend will become warmer and less windy with spells of sunshine developing for many. However, there are still likely to be scattered showers and a few of these could still be heavy and locally thundery.

Monday 15 June – Sunday 21 June

Warmer and calmer but thundery showers in places

Next week is likely to be warmer than this week with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average quite widely. Winds should generally be lighter than this week, too, and from a variable direction. However, areas of low pressure are likely move near to the west and south of the UK at times, bringing showers.

Some of the showers could be heavy, thundery and slow-moving. However, there should also be some decent periods of drier and sunnier weather as well. Indications are that Scotland will be nearest to high pressure through the week, with fewer showers likely there. Warmest conditions are favoured to be through the middle part of the week. A chance of one or two very warm or hot days then, especially in the south and east.

Monday 22 June – Sunday 5 July

Turning cooler and eventually wetter

Latest indications are for the last full week of June to become less warm. Lower pressure over Scandinavia is likely to cause the winds to blow from a cooler north-westerly direction. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition (with chances that the warm weather persists for a little longer). However, most likely is that we see temperatures falling nearer to the seasonal average.

Scotland is likely to become wetter with more frequent showers, particularly in the west and north. Meanwhile, England, Wales and Northern Ireland should tend to become somewhat drier with showers easing. Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.

Further ahead

We will take another look to see if a cooler and wetter change still appears likely for early July.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 15 Jun - Wednesday 24 Jun

Largely dry for many on Monday with sunny spells after any patchy fog clears. Southwest England and parts of Wales may see scattered showers, some of these turning heavy and possibly thundery. The weather becomes rather mixed through the rest of the period with all parts seeing some drier and sunnier spells but with the chance of showers developing. The showers may be heavy and merge into longer spells of rain at times with a risk of thunder also, although thunder mainly in southern or southwestern parts of the UK. Northwestern areas will likely see the best of any drier and sunnier conditions. Eastern coasts will often be cooler with mist here at the start of the period. Elsewhere though temperatures will be warm or very warm at times.

Wednesday 24 Jun - Wednesday 8 Jul

Changeable conditions continuing through the end of June and into July with periods of dry, brighter and more settled weather being interspersed with showers or at times some longer spells of rain. The rain looks to be largely in northwestern areas with drier spells in the east and southeast. Temperatures mainly around average for the time of year but with some very warm spells likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 16 Jun - Thursday 25 Jun

Another changeable day on Tuesday with a mix of cloud, sunny spells and scattered showers. Some showers may turn heavy with the risk of some thunder during the afternoon and evening. The weather remains rather mixed through the rest of the period with all parts seeing some drier and sunnier spells but with the chance of showers developing. The showers may be heavy and merge into longer spells of rain at times with a risk of thunder also, although thunder seems most likely in southern or southwestern parts of the UK. Northwestern areas should see the best of any drier and sunnier conditions. Eastern coasts look to be cooler with mist here at the start of the period. Elsewhere though temperatures should be warm or very warm at times.

Friday 26 Jun - Friday 10 Jul

Changeable conditions continuing through the end of June and into July with periods of dry, brighter and more settled weather being interspersed with showers or at times some longer spells of rain. The rain looks to be largely in northwestern areas with drier spells in the east and southeast. Temperatures mainly around average for the time of year but with some very warm spells likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

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Heavy rain leads to flooding and dangerous driving conditions on Teesside

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/live-weather-traffic-rain-flooding-18406664

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The BBC longer range summary has completely flipped and has written off the rest of June and much of July now. This summer is gone.

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The BBC longer range summary has completely flipped and has written off the rest of June and much of July now. This summer is gone.

I know in the current situation it is easy to lose track of time, but did I lose two months somewhere? 

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