Where does he say that? I'm looking at his Twitter now and there's nothing of the sort?

He says in this tweet he expects the wheels to come off. Pretty clear what his thoughts are!

 

 

The next 3 months will be an interesting 'watch'...As I see it, after such an incredibly dry spring, or particularly Apr/May, something has to 'give' here. Either we are heading down the route of 2018/1976 or as I expect,the 'wheels will come off' as the next 2-3 months progress.

 

 

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He says in this tweet he expects the wheels to come off. Pretty clear what his thoughts are!

 

 

The next 3 months will be an interesting 'watch'...As I see it, after such an incredibly dry spring, or particularly Apr/May, something has to 'give' here. Either we are heading down the route of 2018/1976 or as I expect,the 'wheels will come off' as the next 2-3 months progress.

 

 

All that is saying is that it won’t carry on dry and sunny for the entire summer, which seems fairly obvious. August is always rubbish these days, that’s a given, but June is looking pretty good and that’s effectively school holidays as well now (for many school years) so as long as July is half decent I will be happy. 

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All that is saying is that it won’t carry on dry and sunny for the entire summer, which seems fairly obvious. August is always rubbish these days, that’s a given, but June is looking pretty good and that’s effectively school holidays as well now (for many school years) so as long as July is half decent I will be happy. 

I am not so sure June is looking too special if the models are anything to go by. I think we will end up with a relatively average June overall with this upcoming cook and unsettled spell being tempered by a warm up later on, but overall nothing to write home about.

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Ah, I see Rob has summarised thoughts on Hugo's wording well there. I agree.

June looks like starting on a more average and changeable note but after that it is anyone's guess. FWIW I think June will end up slightly above average but not remarkably so (in terms of temp and sunshine). I can see rainfall being closer to normal but still below average.

Just my thoughts though and not really based on any data!

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All that is saying is that it won’t carry on dry and sunny for the entire summer, which seems fairly obvious. August is always rubbish these days, that’s a given, but June is looking pretty good and that’s effectively school holidays as well now (for many school years) so as long as July is half decent I will be happy. 

LRF's are futile speculation

Moomin in do you think he is right? Has he a totally good track record?

Moomin in do you think he is right? Has he a totally good track record?

Nope

Friday 5 Jun - Sunday 14 Jun

The beginning of this period looks to be rather cool with a shift to a more changeable regime. Sunny spells and showers are likely across many parts, though the most frequent showers are expected across the north and east, perhaps with a longer spell of rain too. The best of the drier conditions appear to be in the south and west, where there should be a good deal of bright or sunny spells. It will be breezy or even windy at times, especially in the east. Looking further ahead, there seems to be a continuation of the showery setup at first, although there is considerable uncertainty. Longer drier, brighter spells will probably develop towards mid-June, especially across northern and western areas.

Monday 15 Jun - Monday 29 Jun

From the middle of June, there should be a return to more settled conditions with longer drier and brighter spells. This period should be generally drier than average, though there is still the possibility of some more changeable spells, these becoming more focused across northwestern areas later in the month. Temperatures are more likely to be above average in the south, but nearer normal further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 6 Jun - Monday 15 Jun

The beginning of this period looks to be rather cool with a shift to a more changeable regime. Sunny spells and showers are likely across many parts, though the most frequent showers are expected across the north and east, perhaps with a longer spell of rain too. The best of the drier conditions appear to be in the south and west, where there should be a good deal of bright or sunny spells. Looking ahead into next week, there seems to be a continuation of the changeable setup with further outbreaks of rain or showers, although there is considerable uncertainty. Longer drier, brighter spells could develop generally towards mid-June, especially across northern and western areas.

Tuesday 16 Jun - Tuesday 30 Jun

From the middle of June, there should be a return to more settled conditions with longer drier and brighter spells. This period should be generally drier than average, though there is still the possibility of some more changeable spells, these becoming more focused across northwestern areas later in the month. Temperatures are more likely to be above average in the south, but nearer normal further north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 7 Jun - Tuesday 16 Jun

To start the period, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and showers across many parts. The showers will be most frequent in the north and east, along with some longer spells of rain. The best of the drier conditions should be seen in the south and west, with plenty of bright or sunny spells. Into the second half of the period, the changeable conditions should continue with further showers and perhaps longer spells of rain, mostly confined to the north and east. Generally, rather cool at the start of the period, particularly in the north and east. Temperatures could start to recover to average in the south and west towards the end of the period.

Wednesday 17 Jun - Wednesday 1 Jul

Through the middle of June, it will stay rather changeable with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in the north and east. However, towards the latter part of June, it will start to become more widely settled with longer and drier periods. Temperatures should be close to or a little below average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend towards average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

That Met Office update is very telling. A relative washout for the majority of June and none too warm either. Great!

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That Met Office update is very telling. A relative washout for the majority of June and none too warm either. Great!

 

After their washout May and flaming June forecasts expect the opposite. they have had a absolute mare recently.

 

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That Met Office update is very telling. A relative washout for the majority of June and none too warm either. Great!

 

Relative to April and May (when I think we had two days of rain in two months here!) but so would anything be.

" The best of the drier conditions should be seen in the south and west, with plenty of bright or sunny spells. Into the second half of the period, the changeable conditions should continue with further showers and perhaps longer spells of rain, mostly confined to the north and east."

For those in the south like me, that certainly doesn't sound like a washout!

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Well one thing is for certain, that BBC long range published recently is definitely one for the bin. What an absolute disaster of a forecast that was!!!

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BBC monthly outlook 

Summary 

June warmer than normal after an early cool spell

 _________________________________ 

Wednesday 3 June – Sunday 7 June 

Pattern shift to a cool, wet end of the week

 

From Wednesday and for the rest of the week the UK will see a pattern shift that will bring some very different weather for everyone compared to that seen through April and May.

 High pressure is expected to amplify in the Atlantic into the weekend, extending north nearer to Greenland and Iceland. This will help deepen an area of low pressure over Scandinavia and the North Sea. As a result, an unseasonably strong, cool northerly wind will develop for the UK and push a cold front south across the country on Wednesday. Western areas will see some outbreaks of rain and sharp showers on Wednesday, with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. However, further east it will stay a bit drier but still turning cool by Thursday.

 By Friday and into the weekend, however, the cold front will sweep into Central Europe and bring cooler, windier weather for the whole country. Some strong wind gusts are possible on northern and western coasts. Low pressure in the North Sea is likely to drift nearer on Saturday and Sunday, bringing some much wetter weather. After a warm, sunny, and dry week for most of the country, Saturday will be quite a change with a windy, wet, and cool day.

 

Monday 8 June – Sunday 14 June 

A bit warmer and drier, showers in the south

 

The cool, wet spell from the first week of June will continue for a time into the second week, so showers, brisk northerly winds, and chilly nights are likely. This is not expected to last for the entire week, however, and by the end of the working week and into the weekend we expect the low pressure systems to drift south into Spain. This will allow pressure to begin to rise over the UK and bring some more settled weather for the northern half of the country. This will also allow some warmer southerly winds into southern areas, but also a few heavy or even thundery showers, especially by the weekend. 

However, this does come with a rather large caveat: the exact timing of the low pressure system's departure. We expect it around midweek, making the second week of June a bit of a week of two halves. Shower, breezy, and cool to start with the second half being warmer than normal, dry, and sunny.

There is a risk that the ridge of high pressure is delayed in the arrival and the bulk of the week ends up on the cooler side of average with plenty of showers as low pressure systems move in from the northwest. But, at the moment, this is just a risk and not the preferred scenario. Confidence is medium mainly due to uncertainty on the timing of the pattern change, which will have a big impact on the expected weather. We have high confidence that the high will build in at some point and is likely to be in place by the weekend.

 

Monday 15 June – Sunday 28 June 

Mostly dry and warm, particularly for the south 

Once the high pressure ridge builds in from the Atlantic, it is likely to stick around for most of the rest of June and give us some similar weather to that just seen through May. Most of the UK will be sunny, warmer than normal, and dry for much of the second half of June.

However, we do expect that June will tend to be a slightly more changeable month than May or April were, so some brief wet, cool spells are possible, although these should last for more than a day or two. Scotland will be the main exception here and may well see more frequent outbreaks of rain from weak fronts.

The main risk to this scenario is that high pressure instead builds strongly to our north and northwest, perhaps near Greenland and Iceland like it is doing at the moment. This would let low pressure systems near Spain and Portugal move into the UK from the south and bring some thundery downpours. This would, however, also bring in some hot Mediterranean air, so it would still be a warmer than normal pattern. As such, confidence is a bit higher for a warmer than normal June, but low on the dryness and sunshine.

Sunnier summer months will see a sharp increase in the UV levels across the UK as we head into June as well.

 

Further ahead 

June dryness is still shrouded in the fog on uncertainty, but next week we should be able to examine the second half of the month in greater detail.

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Well one thing is for certain, that BBC long range published recently is definitely one for the bin. What an absolute disaster of a forecast that was!!!

The one on the previous page that hasn't verified yet?

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Monday 8 Jun - Wednesday 17 Jun

Through the second week of June, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and showers across many parts. The showers will be most frequent in the north and east, along with some longer spells of rain. The best of the drier conditions should be seen in the south and west, with plenty of bright or sunny spells. Towards the middle of June, the changeable conditions should continue with further showers and perhaps longer spells of rain, mostly confined to the north and east. Generally, rather cool at the start of the period, particularly in the north and east. Temperatures could start to recover to average in the south and west towards the end of the period.

Wednesday 17 Jun - Wednesday 1 Jul

Through the middle of June, it will stay rather changeable with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in the north and east. However, towards the latter part of June, it will start to become more widely settled with longer and drier periods. Temperatures should be close to or a little below average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend towards average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 9 Jun - Thursday 18 Jun

Through the second week of June, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and showers across many parts. The showers will be most frequent in the north and east, along with some longer spells of rain. The best of the drier conditions should be seen in the south and west, with plenty of sunny spells. Temperatures should increase towards the end of the week, although it will feel windy at times. Towards the middle of June, changeable conditions should continue with further showers and perhaps longer spells of rain, mostly confined to the north and east. Generally, rather cool at the start of the period, particularly in the north and east. Temperatures are likely to recover to average, as conditions become more settled by the end of the period.

Friday 19 Jun - Friday 3 Jul

Through the middle of June, it will stay rather changeable with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in the north and east. However, towards the latter part of June, it will start to become more widely settled with longer and drier periods. Temperatures should be close to average for the majority of June, but towards the end of the month they could trend above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Stav on the national BBC forecast last night mentioned “the warmth returning” by the end of next week 🙂

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Met office mid & long range outlook flip-flopping all over the place from each update to the next. a holes & elbows spring to mind. I wonder why the distinct lack of consistency at the moment.