BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Turning warm for a time. Cooler again later.
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Wednesday 10 June – Sunday 14 June
Wet and windy for a time. Warmer this weekend.
Wednesday to Friday this week looks set to be unsettled for many with showers or longer outbreaks of rain. The rain will be accompanied by a fresh or strong easterly wind on Thursday and Friday, with some strong gusts for the time of year. There should be significant rainfall for areas that have experienced a deficit of rain since the early spring, including eastern and southern areas of the UK.
There is a chance of occasional thunder mixed in with the rain, too. However, northern and western Scotland will tend to become drier and brighter through the next few days. This weekend will become warmer and less windy with spells of sunshine developing for many. However, there are still likely to be scattered showers and a few of these could still be heavy and locally thundery.
Monday 15 June – Sunday 21 June
Warmer and calmer but thundery showers in places
Next week is likely to be warmer than this week with temperatures climbing above the seasonal average quite widely. Winds should generally be lighter than this week, too, and from a variable direction. However, areas of low pressure are likely move near to the west and south of the UK at times, bringing showers.
Some of the showers could be heavy, thundery and slow-moving. However, there should also be some decent periods of drier and sunnier weather as well. Indications are that Scotland will be nearest to high pressure through the week, with fewer showers likely there. Warmest conditions are favoured to be through the middle part of the week. A chance of one or two very warm or hot days then, especially in the south and east.
Monday 22 June – Sunday 5 July
Turning cooler and eventually wetter
Latest indications are for the last full week of June to become less warm. Lower pressure over Scandinavia is likely to cause the winds to blow from a cooler north-westerly direction. There is currently some uncertainty over the timing of this transition (with chances that the warm weather persists for a little longer). However, most likely is that we see temperatures falling nearer to the seasonal average.
Scotland is likely to become wetter with more frequent showers, particularly in the west and north. Meanwhile, England, Wales and Northern Ireland should tend to become somewhat drier with showers easing. Into the first week of July, there are signs of a more significant change in our weather. There are signs of low pressure moving nearer to the UK, bringing generally wetter, breezier and cooler conditions.
Further ahead
We will take another look to see if a cooler and wetter change still appears likely for early July.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook