My guess this month is either going to be an overdue return to terrible guesswork and a rapid tumble down the rankings or an inspired punt🤔 Mid-table respectability was pleasant whilst it lasted....

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Met Office Hadley           18.4c       Anomaly      2.4c. Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                        17.74c.    Anomaly      1.51c

Netweather                     18.58c     Anomaly      2.39c.

Mean of my 10                18.35c     Anomaly       1.89c.   

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GWs chart earlier shows how relatively few hot Augusts there have been. A look at the HadCET data shows that there have been a few very cool CET max days as well: late August 2015, 2014 and 2011 all had some very cool days but you have to go back to 1986 to beat the 14.9 of 31/8/2015. 

My thinking here is that we could call August vulnerable- ie, if the set up is not right synoptically for some good advective warmth, then the reducing strength of the sun ( in a couple of days we're back to April strength) cannot repair this balance the way that July can.

But with the synoptics, the Euromed heat source is at least as intense as in July. Let's not forget that 1911, 1990 and 2003 all set standards in August, nor that in 2016 mid September brought 34C.

Wonder what will make the jet dip so far, so long; something to do with the Pacific, I heard someone say. 

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Met Office Hadley         18.3c       Anomaly       2.3c. Provisional to8th.

Metcheck                      17.9c       Anomaly       1.67c

Netweather                   18.55c     Anomaly       2.36c.

Mean of my 10              18.41c     Anomaly       1.95c.

    

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Last night's CET minimum of 16.4 should mean another >18C day for today- possibly 19. That could hold the CET figure to above 18 including 10th, after which a fairly rapid drop is likely; with each degree day below 18, the CET will drop initially by 0.1 and later by slightly less each day. So if we get 5 days of, say, 14C that will equate to 20 degree days below 18, and therefore something short of a 2C drop- to about 16.2 maybe. Frightening how quickly it can change. Not saying of course we'll get 14C across the triangle, but certainly as the winds die sub 10C minima can be expected.

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Last night's CET minimum of 16.4 should mean another >18C day for today- possibly 19. That could hold the CET figure to above 18 including 10th, after which a fairly rapid drop is likely; with each degree day below 18, the CET will drop initially by 0.1 and later by slightly less each day. So if we get 5 days of, say, 14C that will equate to 20 degree days below 18, and therefore something short of a 2C drop- to about 16.2 maybe. Frightening how quickly it can change. Not saying of course we'll get 14C across the triangle, but certainly as the winds die sub 10C minima can be expected.

 

Considering most of the country has had a poor August in terms of rain & lack of sunshine, that CET figure is remarkably resilient.

(although, as I said somewhere else, it is consistently warm despite the crap weather)

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Think I have gone far too low in my prediction, thought it would be wet and cooler, but temperature seems to be holding up.

Might yet get lucky (in competition) with a colder last week of August

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Think I have gone far too low in my prediction, thought it would be wet and cooler, but temperature seems to be holding up.

Might yet get lucky (in competition) with a colder last week of August

I'm hoping for the exact opposite. Temps are still holding up well but will ineviatably drop next week. However I can't see any really cool weather to make the CET take a massive hit though. There are still indications in the Met Office monthly forecast of warmer, more settled conditions at the end of the month though this does seem to be being pushed more into Septaember now. So after a dip into the 16s I am hopeful of a modest recovery and I am still happy with my prediction of 17.19C.

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I'm hoping for the exact opposite. Temps are still holding up well but will ineviatable drop next week. However I can't see any really cool weather to make the CET take a massive hit though. There are still indications in the Met Office monthly forecast of warmer, more settles conditions at the end of the month though this does seem to being pushed more into Septaember now. So after a dip into the 16s I am hopeful of a modest recovery and I am still happy with my prediction of 17.19C.

I’d be happy too and I’m not worried.   I don’t think temps are going to take such a dive and we’ve seen higher temps than forecast. It only needs the sun to shine for a short time to send the max temp up and cloudy nights to keep them from falling.  Not too much to ask!  

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Of course all it would take is 17.1c for us to have the hottest August since 2004. Amazing how with pretty much every other month enjoying at least one "blockbuster" warm edition in that time (in many cases several) August has really not seen any.

Very happy with my prediction at this stage.  All to play for,  I see mild nights not permitting the CET to fall as far as some might hope.

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Here is the predictions table for August

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Link to full size table

Those of us who remain optimistic are grouped fairly closely on the prediction chart.  I can’t see it ending more than a couple of tenths (not degrees) either side of 17c, although I am wearing my rose tinted glasses as usual!  

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Those of us who remain optimistic are grouped fairly closely on the prediction chart.  I can’t see it ending more than a couple of degrees either side of 17c, although I am wearing my rose tinted glasses as usual!  

So anywhere in the range 15-19C then? You're really sticking your neck out there, Caz!

I suspect you meant a couple of tenths of a degree, so 16.8 to 17.2C.

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So anywhere in the range 15-19C then? You're really sticking your neck out there, Caz!

I suspect you meant a couple of tenths of a degree, so 16.8 to 17.2C.

  Ahh, at least somebody’s awake this morning! 

You suspect correctly of course and that’s something I do quite often.  I seem to think of anything to the right of a decimal point as a degree!  Doh!  

Better amend my post then!

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Met Office Hadley          18.5c.        Anomaly       2.5c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       17.95c       Anomaly       1.73c

Netweather                    18.67c       Anomaly       2.49c.

Mean of my 10                18.56c.     Anomaly       2.1c.                     

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Today is the last above average CET day (and that is largely due to a high minimum). After today we go below average for the foreseeable future and the CET mean drops back to average by the time we reach the bank holiday weekend

https://i.imgur.com/tGGksri.png

https://i.imgur.com/EuimNSj.png

Today is the last above average CET day (and that is largely due to a high minimum). After today we go below average for the foreseeable future and the CET mean drops back to average by the time we reach the bank holiday weekend

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

https://i.imgur.com/tGGksri.png

https://i.imgur.com/EuimNSj.png

Sounds like its average fare for the rest of August.

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Today is the last above average CET day (and that is largely due to a high minimum). After today we go below average for the foreseeable future and the CET mean drops back to average by the time we reach the bank holiday weekend

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

https://i.imgur.com/tGGksri.png

https://i.imgur.com/EuimNSj.png

Agree with your first sentence and a half but the BH weekend is two weeks away and we've seen things change drastically over such timescales, so I reckon we could still potentially be on for a 17C CET. It will depend on the timing of those little ridges and their sub-5C 850s; if they prevail overnight, then low minima would scupper the chances. But in unsettled conditions, the drop could prove less emphatic if there are windier, cloudier nights.

Chances are slim though. We'd need a 15.5 middle 10 days and a 17.0 last 10, or equivalent. Looks more like a 15 middle at the moment.

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Ahh!  And of course Hadley always overcooks things, so we’re already a couple of tenths down.  I’d forgotten about that but I’m still optimistic!  

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Today is the last above average CET day (and that is largely due to a high minimum). After today we go below average for the foreseeable future and the CET mean drops back to average by the time we reach the bank holiday weekend

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

https://i.imgur.com/tGGksri.png

https://i.imgur.com/EuimNSj.png

 

Thanks GW. Was all going so well during the first week of August! 

Same old, same old! 

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