This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during August , with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.  

July has been a rather warm month and will finish above to the 1971-2000 mean despite a cool first half. A record breaking but short hot spell was responsible for this.

For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for August should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.

The deadline for predictions is 2359 on 31 July (Wednesday evening). 

Now on to some data for August

Historic CET summary for August

1971-2000 16.2C (30 years) 

1981-2010 16.4C (30 years)

1999-2018 16.4C (last 20 years)  

August last year was average with 16.6C. Only 3 years since 2004 have seen the August CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. None was higher than 17C. The last time we had a 18C August was 2003 when we last broke the all time UK temperature record. 

Here is a chart of the August CET for all years since 1961:

Direct link to chart

Latest model output 850hPa and T2m temperatures - 28 Jul (12z)

SHORT RANGE (2 weeks)

GEFS (12z) - average at first but turning cooler

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

T2m temperatures are uninspiring but then we had that in the first half of July also before it turned warmer

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=

GEM ENS (00z) - Close to average but huge scatter

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=2&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=

T2m's slightly above the GFS  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gem&var=5&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=

The 00z ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt are also quite poor.

http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png

LONGER RANGE

Met Office contingency planners outlook  

Not yet available

Monthly outlook at BBC website

Looks fairly average

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

CFS V2 (0z 27 Jun)

Close to average in the CET area

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2019072718/cfs-8-8-2019.png?18

JMA

Northern blocking with low pressure underneath across the UK 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201907.D2412.png

ECM 

After a warm start it gradually turns quite cool

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190725_0000+26400.png

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190725_0000+43200.png

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190725_0000+60000.png

https://www.met.hu/img/meTz/meTz20190725_0000+76800.png

Beijing Climate Centre 

Looks a bit above average for the UK

https://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/download/Prediction/MD2gen/20190727/figure/md2019081gl_t2m1_3.gif

CanSIPS

Westerly flow with Azores high perhaps ridging into the south at times

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2019070100/cansips_mslpa_global_2.png

... And I'm saying nothing about any predicted temperature anomalies in advance of that deadline this time.

GW. Change ‘July’ to ‘August’ in your opening sentence!  

Bump!

Could a mod please sticky this!  Thanks!

Just done mine I've gambled again might as well as down the bottom as usual. Just think this summer has one more trick up its sleeve.

That temp graph shows just how ordinary Augusts have been from 2005 onwards - never more than half a degree or so higher than the average, with a number over 1c below.

I wonder if this is merely a statistical quirk, a coincidence, or whether it's a symptom of an underlying 'new reality'. In contrast, we've had 3 fantastic July's in the past 7 summers, plus this current one having some very good spells, too.

Dare we hope this August might be better?

Dare we hope this August might be better?

Dunno. If today's model output is to be believed we might be on our way to the first cooler than average month this year lol! 

Prediction in. I Need a warm month... 

Bump!

Could a mod please sticky this!  Thanks!

Just seen it Caz and given at a sticky.

 

Just seen it Caz and given at a sticky.

 

Dunno. If today's model output is to be believed we might be on our way to the first cooler than average month this year lol! 

 

I’m sure the models intentionally get it wrong at the end of the month just to throw our chances in this competition.  You watch, as soon as the closing date has gone, the output will change!  

But the output led us to be pessimistic about July and look what happened!  

I’m sure the models intentionally get it wrong at the end of the month just to throw our chances in this competition.  You watch, as soon as the closing date has gone, the output will change!  

The second half of the month is always going to be verging on guesswork anyway. You can get guidance from models/forecasts up to mid month but after that anything can happen. Anyway, prediction is just in. Still getting used to having to do it by the end of the month, rather than having a few days grace!

Hi GW - Simon. Your in box is full.

Sorry now sorted. Inbox cleared

Hi, unable to send my prediction this evening due to full GW mailbox,
will it go automatically, or do I have to manually resend ?

please resend

 

Dunno. If today's model output is to be believed we might be on our way to the first cooler than average month this year lol! 

 

Definitely. Two weeks ago spent £1500 on air conditioning for our bedroom - looked like a good investment for two days last week!

Met Office Hadley            18.1c.       Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                         17.07c      Anomaly       0.85c

Netweather                      18.57c      Anomaly       2.38c.

Mean of my 10 stations      17.36c.    Difference    0.9c. Using a 6-year average of 16.46c for the 10 stations.  

For what it's worth, I repeated my July figure for this month, just as I did last year (because it went so well that time... ).

I just sort of happened really. I had this vague idea that mid-17s might be a good punt and then realised that I'd had the same thought for July!