Mild nights should keep the CET up until the weekend, but then it looks to turn a lot fresher, possibly for a week or so - hence the CET looking to fall toward the LTA.
The final third of the month will be the decider in terms of what manner of final CET anomaly we see.
The models aren't showing much appetite for placing the UK back on the warm side of the jet stream for any length of time within the next fortnight, let alone building a fine and warm spell of weather, but for those who study tropical cycles, there's reason to believe that the models may be giving the cool pattern too much persistence.
You see, we currently have strong trade winds across the Central Pacific driving our weather patterns toward a state more characteristic of a La Nina event, but there are signs that weaker than usual trade winds should move across the Central Pacific from the west by mid-month.
These signs are derived from the fact that the Central Pacific remains anomalously warm, as does the Indian Ocean - a configuration that opposes circulation changes of the La Nina variety.
For whatever reason, the models repeatedly display little ability to pick up on such reversals of the Central Pacific zonal wind anomalies more than a week in advance. So, at this time, they're likely 'blind' to this potential (it's not certain, I must stress!), which is a big deal because if it transpires, it will encourage a return to ridge building across NW Europe and the UK, perhaps Scandinavia too, for the final third of the month.
So, long story short, that's what I now find myself pinning my hopes to. Back at the end of July, the trade wind surge wasn't looking to be as strong, so there wasn't such a great need for a counteracting westerly wind burst to follow... but it was never going to be that easy a ride, was it?
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