Looks like a little bit of a wait, still, for the changed tropical signal to fully feed through to our part of the world. That being what, to look at it simply, is represented by the switch from deep blues and purples to yellows and oranges around the 180* mark (i.e. the Dateline) on 14th Aug.

There's been some adjustment in the mid-range, sure - hence Wed-Fri next week doesn't look as cool as it once did - but it appears that, unless the models are having a major gaff, the main change is still some 8-10 days away. This being in the form of high pressure building across NW Europe and the UK.

The FV3/GFS 06z makes a half-decent attempt at this change in 10 days time, but its progressive habits with N. Atlantic troughs then makes a mess of things and leaves us waiting another 4 days for the next Euro-UK ridge build.

The ECM 00z seemed still some way off the pattern shift as of +10 days, but I'm unconvinced by the way it's handling the tropical cycle at the moment (general consensus among experts in the field is for an amplified tropical wave to propagate east across the Pacific, but ECM has no such thing).

 

 

It's not out of the question that we could escape the mobile, changeable / unsettled regime a bit sooner; by next weekend even. The models have been known to be way too slow to translate a change in the tropical Pacific across to the N. Atlantic and European patterns. So if you have plans for a week's time, there's more hope than the model output might have you believe.

I expect that the EPS is being especially slow on this occasion. It takes until a fortnight's time for a settling down of the weather to be represented more than slightly in the clusters!

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Met Office Hadley         18.4c.       Anomaly       2.4c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                      17.83c      Anomaly       1.61c

Netweather                   18.61c      Anomaly       2.42c.

Mean of My 10               18.44c      Anomaly       1.98c.   

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Met Office Hadley        18.2c.       Anomaly       2.3c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                     17.60c      Anomaly       1.58c

Netweather                  18.44c      Anomaly       2.25c.

Mean of my 10             18.25c      Anomaly       1.79c.    

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Met Office Hadley        18.2c.       Anomaly       2.3c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                     17.60c      Anomaly       1.58c

Netweather                  18.44c      Anomaly       2.25c.

Mean of my 10             18.25c      Anomaly       1.79c.    

Good the CET is treading water above 18C still (pre downjustment).

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Good the CET is treading water above 18C still (pre downjustment).

Using the FV3 06z and allowing for known bias, a finish between 16.8*C & 17.2*C is suggested.

This is one of the warmest operational model runs of late, but fits well with the recent trend as the models sniff out the shift of the mid-latitude pattern in response to the tropical changes.

Also, the upward bias adjustment I've applied is on the cautious side; just 0.5*C to the CET for each day. It's quite possible, but not clearly proven (as far as I know...) that the true bias is at least twice that size.

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Using the FV3 06z and allowing for known bias, a finish between 16.8*C & 17.2*C is suggested.

This is one of the warmest operational model runs of late, but fits well with the recent trend as the models sniff out the shift of the mid-latitude pattern in response to the tropical changes.

Also, the upward bias adjustment I've applied is on the cautious side; just 0.5*C to the CET for each day. It's quite possible, but not clearly proven (as far as I know...) that the true bias is at least twice that size.

James- thanks for offering a throwbag!

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Met Office Hadley          17.9c.       Anomaly       1.9c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                       17.28c      Anomaly       1.06c

Netweather                    18.13c      Anomaly       1.94c

Mean of My 10                7.89c.      Anomaly       1.43c.   

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Using the FV3 06z and allowing for known bias, a finish between 16.8*C & 17.2*C is suggested.

 

I'll take that!

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Met Office Hadley          17.6.       Anomaly      1.6c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                       17.15c      Anomaly       0.92c

Netweather                    17.88c      Anomaly       1.67

Mean of my 10                17.68       Anomaly       1.22c.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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HadCET 17.4°C provisional to yesterday (14th).

14.0 minimum last night too. 

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Met Office Hadley           17.4c.       Anomaly       1.4c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                        17.03c      Anomaly        0.81c

Netweather                     17.7c        Anomaly        1.51c

Mean of my 10                17.53c      Anomaly         0.54c.   

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Based on the latest six model runs (FV3 & ECM together), no big change in the suggested final CET since a few days ago, Saint Snow will be pleased to hear!

The margins are wider than before, though, as it looks like the actual turnout could either feature some unusually cool nights, or a heatwave of sorts, depending on the orientation of the ridge, which the models are struggling to pin down (as expected while it's still around a week+ away).

So we're talking anywhere from the mid-16s to mid-17s. No resting easy, I'm afraid! 

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Based on the latest six model runs (FV3 & ECM together), no big change in the suggested final CET since a few days ago, Saint Snow will be pleased to hear!

The margins are wider than before, though, as it looks like the actual turnout could either feature some unusually cool nights, or a heatwave of sorts, depending on the orientation of the ridge, which the models are struggling to pin down (as expected while it's still around a week+ away).

So we're talking anywhere from the mid-16s to mid-17s. No resting easy, I'm afraid! 

Hope the final figure leans towards the N side of that range!

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Met Office Hadley          17.4c       Anomaly       1.3c. Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                       16.91c     Anomaly        0.60c

Netweather                    17.63c     Anomaly        1.14c

Mean of my 10 stations    17.44c.    Anomaly        0.98c.                                 

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Met Office Hadley          17.4c       Anomaly       1.3c. Provisional to 15th.                           

 

The FV3 12z in isolation gave me this figure as the final CET.

Warmest run of the day, though - and the 00z runs were markedly cooler for next week.

On the other hand, the ECM 12z has performed the same move away from unhelpful trough orientations for building a good deal of warmth across the UK by Friday 23rd. It still goes for some destabilisation at the weekend but it's far from convincing IMO.

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The FV3 12z in isolation gave me this figure as the final CET.

Warmest run of the day, though - and the 00z runs were markedly cooler for next week.

On the other hand, the ECM 12z has performed the same move away from unhelpful trough orientations for building a good deal of warmth across the UK by Friday 23rd. It still goes for some destabilisation at the weekend but it's far from convincing IMO.

Hmmm!  Don’t you just love the British Weather!  Looks like anyone in the range of 16.5c to 17.5c still has a chance. Of course bang on 17c would be really nice!  

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Met Office Hadley            17.2c        Anomaly      1.2c   Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         16.82c      Anomaly      0.60c

Netweather                      17.5c        Anomaly      1.31c

Mean of my 10 stations     17.27       Anomaly       0.8c.                     

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Met Office Hadley           17.2c.      Anomaly       1.2c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                        16.79c     Anomaly       0.57c

Netweather                     17.48c     Anomaly       1.29c

Mean of my 10 stations      17.29c.      Anomaly     0.83c. 

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I'm beginning to wonder whether at 17.19C I may even have pitched a little low. I can only see it dropping a little lower in the coming few days and with warmer, more settled (albeit no heatwave conditions) being progged towards the end of month I wonder if around 17.5C might be more realistic?

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I'm beginning to wonder whether at 17.19C I may even have pitched a little low. I can only see it dropping a little lower in the coming few days and with warmer, more settled (albeit no heatwave conditions) being progged towards the end of month I wonder if around 17.5C might be more realistic?

I think you’ll be closer than me with my 17c guess!  Although there will no doubt be an adjustment downwards, so the current figure is probably around 17c.  

But as you say, it looks like the rest of the month is going to be above average, so it’s likely to go up a bit.  Don’t forget though that we’re already above average, so if daily CET’s only get to average, the current figure will fall slightly. 

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