For what it's worth, I repeated my July figure for this month, just as I did last year (because it went so well that time... ).

I just sort of happened really. I had this vague idea that mid-17s might be a good punt and then realised that I'd had the same thought for July!

Well I went for 17.21C. The first few days of the month should be a good 'bank' to stop it falling too far assuming the cooler conditions out towards mid month verfiy. And despite these forecast cooler conditions I still predict a modestly warmer than average month because I don't think that summer has finished with us yet. The mechanism that brought us the brief late June heatwave and of course another relatively brief (but all time record breaking) heatwave in late July I don't think will simply disappear without some 'echoes' down the line. So I think we will get another brief pulse (or two) of hot weather during the 2nd half of the month.

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Well I went for 17.21C. The first few days of the month should be a good 'bank' to stop it falling too far assuming the cooler conditions out towards mid month verfiy. And despite these forecast cooler conditions I still predict a modestly warmer than average month because I don't think that summer has finished with us yet. The mechanism that brought us the brief late June heatwave and of course another relatively brief (but all time record breaking) heatwave in late July I don't think will simply disappear without some 'echoes' down the line. So I think we will get another brief pulse (or two) of hot weather during the 2nd half of the month.

I’m with you and SC on this!  I went for 17c this month, 17.2c in July and nearly went for the same as my thoughts were similar, although I was thinking I’d gone a couple of points too high, rather than too low.  

I think low to mid 17’s are a good bet because I feel we’re stuck in a pattern of heatwaves forming between reasonable temperatures, if wet at times.  We had lovely weather in July and so far August is looking similar, so I would be surprised if the CET ends up being much different. Good call Col and GW!  

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Met Office Hadley           18.4c       Anomaly       2.3c. Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                        17.49c     Anomaly        1.24c

Netweather                     18.65c     Anomaly        2.46c

Mean of my 10        18.15c  Difference  1.69c.                    

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After a relatively warm start, temperatures are expected to trend towards average by mid-month

https://i.imgur.com/vzKZv5A.png

https://i.imgur.com/pNwDXCd.png

After a relatively warm start, temperatures are expected to trend towards average by mid-month

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

https://i.imgur.com/vzKZv5A.png

https://i.imgur.com/pNwDXCd.png

 

Not for the first time when it comes to August... Same old same old. 

 

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Here is the predictions table for August

Link to full size table

Someone was telling me, ‘When ten years ago I asked the question “How do you calibrate the carbon dioxide warming of a planetary atmosphere”.

It was rare for a scientist to answer that question, but those who did said that you could only do so if you found a formula that worked for both Mars and Venus. I said “can you obtain results from an Atmospheric Chamber full of pure CO2”, “no” they said, “the real atmosphere doesn’t have six walls” so scientists assume that an increase in temperature of 0.76 Kelvin occurs after an increase in 100 parts per million of CO2, the next 100 ppm increase will produce an increase of less that 0.76 Kelvin.
Even with the adjustments upward for eliminating the Pause/Hiatus for the Paris Conference, its still under one Kelvin. Anything over one Kelvin is a fiction produced by a computer model based on the above assumption.

So today I explain the simple formula that works for Venus and Mars that also calibrates CO2 warming on Earth. The Earths Grey body temperature is 154 Kelvin, and the Earths average surface temperature is 287 Kelvin. So we have 133 Kelvin for the Greenhouse effect. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is 400 parts per million or one part per 2,500. So 133 divided by 2,500 equals 0.0532 Kelvin for Carbon Dioxide warming. But only a maximum of four percent of CO2 in the Atmosphere could be man-made, so therefore in two hundred years, man-made CO2 has contributed only 0.002128 Kelvin to Global Warming.

The 0.76 Kelvin increase was caused by the fact that between 1913 and 1996, only one of eight Solar Cycles was longer than the mean Solar Cycle length of 11.04 years, the last of these was the shortest Solar Cycle for more than 200 years, the strength of the Suns magnetic field more than doubled, the cosmic ray flux fell by 11 percent and there was a 8.6 percent reduction in clouds.
That’s it, Climate Change has been solved.’

Interesting reading.

Here is the predictions table for August

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Link to full size table

Thanks GW. 

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Thank you, GW for the table. Printscreen screenshot taken.

 

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Met Office Hadley          18.5c        Anomaly      2.3c  Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                       17.78c      Anomaly      1.55c

Netweather                    18.67c      Anomaly      2.48c

Mean of my 10               18.66c      Anomaly      2.2c.   

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Someone was telling me, ‘When ten years ago I asked the question “How do you calibrate the carbon dioxide warming of a planetary atmosphere”.

It was rare for a scientist to answer that question, but those who did said that you could only do so if you found a formula that worked for both Mars and Venus. I said “can you obtain results from an Atmospheric Chamber full of pure CO2”, “no” they said, “the real atmosphere doesn’t have six walls” so scientists assume that an increase in temperature of 0.76 Kelvin occurs after an increase in 100 parts per million of CO2, the next 100 ppm increase will produce an increase of less that 0.76 Kelvin.
Even with the adjustments upward for eliminating the Pause/Hiatus for the Paris Conference, its still under one Kelvin. Anything over one Kelvin is a fiction produced by a computer model based on the above assumption.

So today I explain the simple formula that works for Venus and Mars that also calibrates CO2 warming on Earth. The Earths Grey body temperature is 154 Kelvin, and the Earths average surface temperature is 287 Kelvin. So we have 133 Kelvin for the Greenhouse effect. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide is 400 parts per million or one part per 2,500. So 133 divided by 2,500 equals 0.0532 Kelvin for Carbon Dioxide warming. But only a maximum of four percent of CO2 in the Atmosphere could be man-made, so therefore in two hundred years, man-made CO2 has contributed only 0.002128 Kelvin to Global Warming.

The 0.76 Kelvin increase was caused by the fact that between 1913 and 1996, only one of eight Solar Cycles was longer than the mean Solar Cycle length of 11.04 years, the last of these was the shortest Solar Cycle for more than 200 years, the strength of the Suns magnetic field more than doubled, the cosmic ray flux fell by 11 percent and there was a 8.6 percent reduction in clouds.
That’s it, Climate Change has been solved.’

Interesting reading.

, not even wrong.

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Met Office Hadley         18.8c.       Anomaly      2.6c. Provisional to 4th.

Metcheck                      18.07c      Anomaly      1.85c

Netweather                   18.96c      Anomaly      2.77c

Mean of my 10               18.76.     Anomaly       2.38c.   

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, not even wrong.

Off topic though!  

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Mild nights should keep the CET up until the weekend, but then it looks to turn a lot fresher, possibly for a week or so - hence the CET looking to fall toward the LTA.

The final third of the month will be the decider in terms of what manner of final CET anomaly we see.

The models aren't showing much appetite for placing the UK back on the warm side of the jet stream for any length of time within the next fortnight, let alone building a fine and warm spell of weather, but for those who study tropical cycles, there's reason to believe that the models may be giving the cool pattern too much persistence.

You see, we currently have strong trade winds across the Central Pacific driving our weather patterns toward a state more characteristic of a La Nina event, but there are signs that weaker than usual trade winds should move across the Central Pacific from the west by mid-month.

These signs are derived from the fact that the Central Pacific remains anomalously warm, as does the Indian Ocean - a configuration that opposes circulation changes of the La Nina variety.

For whatever reason, the models repeatedly display little ability to pick up on such reversals of the Central Pacific zonal wind anomalies more than a week in advance. So, at this time, they're likely 'blind' to this potential (it's not certain, I must stress!), which is a big deal because if it transpires, it will encourage a return to ridge building across NW Europe and the UK, perhaps Scandinavia too, for the final third of the month.

 

So, long story short, that's what I now find myself pinning my hopes to. Back at the end of July, the trade wind surge wasn't looking to be as strong, so there wasn't such a great need for a counteracting westerly wind burst to follow... but it was never going to be that easy a ride, was it? 

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Met Office Hadley          18.7c.     Anomaly      2.5c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                       17.99     Anomaly      1.76c

Netweather                    18.89c    Anomaly      2.7c.

Mean of my 10               18.58c    Anomaly      2.12c.     

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Off topic though!  

Oops, wrong thread? It’s titled with global warming on the main board.

 

Oops, wrong thread? It’s titled with global warming on the main board.

That's the user name of the author 

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Met Office Hadley         18.6c.       Anomaly       2.5c Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                      17.86c      Anomaly       1.63c

Netweather                   18.75c      Anomaly       2.56c

Mean of my 10               18.36c.     Anomaly       1.9c.   

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Met Office Hadley         18.6c.       Anomaly       2.5c Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                      17.86c      Anomaly       1.63c

Netweather                   18.75c      Anomaly       2.56c

Mean of my 10               18.36c.     Anomaly       1.9c.   

 

Remarkably warm Autumn we are having so far. 

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Remarkably warm Autumn we are having so far. 

 

Come back in a week!!

 

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