EC 12z op will be warmer than its predecessor.

 

 

with 20c to 22c 850s covering most of England probably at least 10c to low.

 

You can actually see the modelled temps on weather.us. 34C at 12pm in London, so probably closer to 36-7C by mid afternoon.

For Midlands and West: 30C in Warks, 23-24 in Devon, 25C in Shropshire. Add 2C to those numbers for undercooking. 

 

You can actually see the modelled temps on weather.us. 34C at 12pm in London, so probably closer to 36-7C by mid afternoon.

For Midlands and West: 30C in Warks, 23-24 in Devon, 25C in Shropshire. Add 2C to those numbers for undercooking. 

The front would be producng rain for the spine for the country so I'd be subtracting from those values for places like Warks.

 

You can actually see the modelled temps on weather.us. 34C at 12pm in London, so probably closer to 36-7C by mid afternoon.

For Midlands and West: 30C in Warks, 23-24 in Devon, 25C in Shropshire. Add 2C to those numbers for undercooking. 

Wow thanks.

LOL ECM definitely trolling now high pressure dominated at 120h v hot

ECM shows the disruption occurring by Tuesday next week on the Op, bridging toward Iberian heat low.

I think this run will have a setup that would support 37-38C on Wed & Thu.

 

I think this run will have a setup that would support 37-38C on Wed & Thu.

MetO auto giving me 30c on Tuesday even up here.

Wow 144h 22c 850s must be approaching 100f in the SE. 

ECM is 🔥🔥🔥 with 22C 850s pushing north on a perfect alignment by T144.

That ECM T+144 is hot, humid and stormzy for the south.

not in the south, the storms are in the north.

 

I think this run will have a setup that would support 37-38C on Wed & Thu.

Yep, 144hrs suggests a very hot Wed. Also of note is that the highest airmass temps are over Biscay age Western France so any breakdown from the West would bring a very intense plume first. 

22C on 850 reaches N.England in this run on Thu.

Just as on the GEM, then. 

Time to stick a tenner on 100F being reached I reckon 

 

not in the south, the storms are in the north.

Nope - look at the troughing moving N from France. 

EDIT: should say yes, some plume boundary storms further north as well.

Absolutely scorching run 24c 850s into the SW by 168h. mid 30s widely

And this:

... as a continuation of T+144 is another classic example of multiple disturbances moving north on an intense plume. Big storms on the plume boundary in NI and Scotland, but inside the plume core that would be very unstable as well.

 Nope - look at the troughing moving N from France. 

EDIT: should say yes, some plume boundary storms further north as well.

No, there is a strong cap and too much subsidence in the south on this run with zero cloud.

Anyway, this run has a finger licking 25C DP in your area on Thu afternoon.