Before posting please read through this thread and take note: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046

 

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Thanks Brian. It is still a somewhat unsettled cool outlook for the coming days across the current output. On a plus side it will give “much needed rain” to some places.

In the longer term there are differing signals with some hinting at warmer and at times more settled conditions.

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Good to see this back; thanks!

No clear pattern from the synoptic charts I've looked at this morning, though LP never seems far away. and unusually under the control of a gyre near Scandinavia rather than the Atlantic. Pulses of warmth tend to be brief.

The following charts which average out the weather over the next couple of weeks do indeed make it look wet and cool for next week, perhaps with some improvement thereafter

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

 

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A period of sunshine and showers and not particularly warm is the order of the day for the next few days. No signs yet of the June monsoon and hopefully there won't be!

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Thank you Brian. I’ve always regarded the MoD threads as the heart of the Forum.

The ECM ensemble for London from yesterday’s 12z shows a clear warming trend after an extended period of cooler, wet weather running through the next 10 days.

Certainly the rain is much needed - although summer rain when vegetation is growing strongly is rather less useful.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif 

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Thank you Brian. I’ve always regarded the MoD threads as the heart of the Forum.

The ECM ensemble for London from yesterday’s 12z shows a clear warming trend after an extended period of cooler, wet weather running through the next 10 days.

Certainly the rain is much needed - although summer rain when vegetation is growing strongly is rather less useful.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

It is useful to the growing vegetation is it not? I know my wife is looking forward to some spells of rain for the garden (she is a very keen gardener).

The trouble comes in this country, when an unsettled spell does not know when to give up and allow warm sunshine in once more, so I hope the 12z is onto something with a return to warmer, drier conditions.

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N.B. Beautiful northern blocking on the ECM at t+240 - charts like this in January would engender intense excitement and anticipation:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019060400/ECM1-240.GIF?04-12

 

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 Good to see this back.

Let's all think about what we are posting by bringing back a little bit of quality and doing that final sense check before tapping the send button. 

High latitude blocking forces a trough over us in the next few days keeping the country under a slack showery set up, Saturday could be a bit breezy for a time as that low pressure edges north across the country, generally quieter by Sunday.

In the longer term there are hints across the NWP for High pressure to become anchored just to the north of the UK. This would result in a generally warm and showery setup for the south with improvements further north, especially across Western Scotland, Highlands and Islands. Eastern coasts of Scotland and England will likely suffer from haar or sea fret as the origin of that air across eastern Europe and Scandinavia was initially warm and will carry additional moisture with its interaction across the North Sea.

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The ECM ensemble for London from yesterday’s 12z shows a clear warming trend after an extended period of cooler, wet weather running through the next 10 days.

That signal (warm & dry) is stronger in the EC 00z ens and it starts from the middle of next week.

Still too early of course.

 

Just as an aside, I think the UK has been suffering from terrible bad luck for several winters past (when it comes to those who love the white stuff) - we are getting negative NAO conditions, but always at the wrong time of year. Not sure why that should be, but if northern blocking could become established in the winter months, then we would reap the rewards.

 

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It is useful to the growing vegetation is it not? I know my wife is looking forward to some spells of rain for the garden (she is a very keen gardener).

The trouble comes in this country, when an unsettled spell does not know when to give up and allow warm sunshine in once more, so I hope the 12z is onto something with a return to warmer, drier conditions.

Of course it is, but the point I was making is that the consequence of it being used by the growing vegetation is that little percolates down to the water table and it won't help replenish in areas that have been short of rainfall in recent months.

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...Its drifted already.

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Given the synoptics for the next few days with compact but developing low pressure systems moving in from the Bay of Biscay (Friday looks particularly wet and windy over Southern England), it's quite fitting that it isn't that dissimilar to this week 75 years ago with the D Day Landings.

Fax chart for noon Friday: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif



Not really ideal for the local holidaymakers but good news for my beloved lawn which is now turning brown in places.

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we are getting negative NAO conditions, but always at the wrong time of year. Not sure why that should be, but if northern blocking could become established in the winter months, then we would reap the rewards.

I mentioned this before but temperatures over the wider Arctic region (within 65N) have been running much higher, and oft times, record breakingly so, throughout much of the Spring so far. I would be surprised if this didn't play a significant role in the long run negative NAO readings we have seen since the end of April last, and with positive Arctic temp anomalies expected to increase even further again over the next couple of weeks, it makes one wonder how this may have an influence Atlantic patterns as we head deeper into the summer. 

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The focus for Friday's rain appears to be edging ever westwards with each passing run. The central spine of the country looks currently in the zone for the heaviest rainfall. 20-30mm possible in that zone. 

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A wet fortnight in June is quite common and, is often known as the June monsoon. It more typically arrives in the mid to later part of the month but has been known to occur earlier and even in to July. 

It always follows a spell of settled benign weather in May, and is associated with the mainland Europe heating up and cold in the arctic still. 

To be fair GFS ens have been consistently showing a warm up after around the 9th of June, and we do need the rain. 😊

Bang goes my prediction that summer 2019 will follow the same pattern as last year.

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A wet fortnight in June is quite common and, is often known as the June monsoon. It more typically arrives in the mid to later part of the month but has been known to occur earlier and even in to July. 

It always follows a spell of settled benign weather in May, and is associated with the mainland Europe heating up and cold in the arctic still. 

To be fair GFS ens have been consistently showing a warm up after around the 9th of June, and we do need the rain. 😊

Damn right we do. At this rate, the lovely, meaningful stuff promised for Friday will be literally gone west by T0 and we’ll be left with scraps again. I’m planning on remortgaging my house to cover the bonuses of Thames Water’s c-suite. 

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Bang goes my prediction that summer 2019 will follow the same pattern as last year.

That was really going to be unlikely though.

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That was really going to be unlikely though.

The opening period of this summer doesn't look like resembling last year based on current model output for sure. However, what may happen is that the second half of this summer could conceivably be better overall that the same part of last summer, which IIRC for many areas away from SE England was somewhat less good compared to the first half.

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