Interesting 12s so far UKMO looking much better as early as 120h. Decent GEM aswell but GFS is shocking with a limpet low refusing to leave the UK alone.

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Friday's feature looks potentially problematic - it scoops up a fair amount of warm moist air on it's way up to us. I would expect some warnings from the MetO in the next day or so if the modelling continues on that theme.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?0 

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Still some encouraging signs a bit further out, none more so than the 12z Ensembles, which shows after the projected deluge later this week, the rainfall spikes get smaller and smaller and the heat building is a positive trend.
Something to watch moving forward.

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GFS 168 hours - High pressure builds to our north, west and east as our very own cut off low gradually fills.

ECM at  the same timeframe has more of a weakly defined trough axis running from Scandinavia to Iberia with slow moving afternoon inland showers. Warm in any sunshine thanks to the light breezes.

 Overall its a slowly improving theme. 

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Yep well spotted ! that’s a frontal triple point, warm front to the right, intersection point with have a lot of up lifting with potential for high wing shear near the intersection.

potential for some real rain for the south at last.

 

 

Friday's feature looks potentially problematic - it scoops up a fair amount of warm moist air on it's way up to us. I would expect some warnings from the MetO in the next day or so if the modelling continues on that theme.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?0

High pressure remains illusive this morning for the UK. GFS v poor again , others less so but not perfect by any means. Gem once again looking the best for high pressure. HLB the issue some crazy blocking in the arctic at the mo

 

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To be honest, I think all model solutions for beyond next weekend should be taken with rather a large dose of salt right now. The models, to my mind anyway, seem to be struggling with the behaviour of the cut-off low pressure currently dominating the UK's weather and until they properly figure out what that low does after next weekend, I think all charts for early next week onwards and very much open to question.

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On cue 0600 gfs looks more settled by week two, only 3.8mm here for example

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Just to show it's not just Met Éireann that we inherit storm names from, Friday's system has been named "Miguel" by AEMET (France, Spain & Portugal)

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Just to show it's not just Met Éireann that we inherit storm names from, Friday's system has been named "Miguel" by AEMET (France, Spain & Portugal)

I was going to mention the fact that I wouldn't be surprised if that low pressure system which is forecast to give a lot of rain down south on Friday and then here in Scotland on Saturday ended up being an actual named storm since it was around this time last year that we had Storm Hector (at least, I think that this was what it was called) which affected this part of the world back than.

That was only the first named storm to have occurred during the summer since the current joint UK/Ireland naming system first started just before the winter of 2015/16, but that was also a named storm which occurred within what ended up being a far better summer overall than what we are experiencing just now.

On this occasion though, the other European countries have beaten us to that once again and once again, we have yet another example of why there should be a single naming system for these low pressure systems that covers the whole of Europe (as I have mentioned on so many other occasions in the past) instead of this currently disjointed system where we have different countries (or groups of countries) which each have their own naming systems for that.

 

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Even in high summer I can't escape that bloody southerly gale with 44 mph sustained for a couple of hours and possibly 60 mph gusts on Friday night. Still, it may keep the local night club revellers at bay.

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GFS thinks the eastern half of England will escape the worst of the deluge on Friday

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GFS thinks the eastern half of England will escape the worst of the deluge on Friday

 

That chart gives me 19mm. If I get that, I’ll be delighted, and very surprised. 

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A few models agree on sparing the east the worst of the rain (ICON is one of them) but the precip totals have gone down to pretty bog-standard values. Not that we want a proper deluge of course, but this looks pretty run-of-the-mill now. Just a wet and miserable Friday afternoon!

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To be honest, I think all model solutions for beyond next weekend should be taken with rather a large dose of salt right now. The models, to my mind anyway, seem to be struggling with the behaviour of the cut-off low pressure currently dominating the UK's weather and until they properly figure out what that low does after next weekend, I think all charts for early next week onwards and very much open to question.

I disagree, all the models are now building strong heights to the NW, that will mean Low pressure in a vicinity until the Atlantic possibly cuts through again later on, all in all below average to cool and very wet at times.

 

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I disagree, all the models are now building strong heights to the NW, that will mean Low pressure in a vicinity until the Atlantic possibly cuts through again later on, all in all below average to cool and very wet at times.

 

I take it you haven't looked at the GFS 12z op, Ian?

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I take it you haven't looked at the GFS 12z op, Ian?

I have but it relies on us getting lucky with the jet going through a gap between the Greenland High and an emerging High over us, nearer the time with that GH solid on the modelling generally, troughing in our locale is much more likely. Unlike winter, we know that GHs always verify in Summer 

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The 250mb jet over the N Atlantic is modelled as making some very exaggerated dips and curves over the next week or so- one limb taking on an omega shape before cutting back on itself before fragmenting and joining a more polar-orientated limb over Greenland in a week's time. The GFS op translates this into a window for HP to build over the UK from 14th. Whilst the 850s and surface synoptics are too far out to reckon on at that range, interesting that such a meandering jet can be seen as an opportunity for a wide variety of subsequent situations.

 

 

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I disagree, all the models are now building strong heights to the NW, that will mean Low pressure in a vicinity until the Atlantic possibly cuts through again later on, all in all below average to cool and very wet at times.

I agree to an extent. The strong heights to the NW are troublesome and the reason why the ECM op is rather poor. It'll be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles though after a few cold outliers recently. I don't personally see the outlook as below average or overly wet post-this weekend. Mixed, perhaps?

GEFS 12z, though featuring fewer 'scorcher' runs, does show a warmer and drier trend as we head to mid June with pressure trending higher after this weekend's low.

I'll go back to Downpour's post, exercising caution. There is a fair spread in SLP early on in the 12z suite from the GFS, indicating extra uncertainty. I don't like the Greeny high either, but it isn't the be all and end all.

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I have but it relies on us getting lucky with the jet going through a gap between the Greenland High and an emerging High over us, nearer the time with that GH solid on the modelling generally, troughing in our locale is much more likely. Unlike winter, we know that GHs always verify in Summer 

That could be a very useful piece of model interpretation if verifiable. Is that because the models are able to predict HL synoptics generally more easily in summer?

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