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No, there is a strong cap and too much subsidence in the south on this run with zero cloud.Anyway, this run has a finger licking 25C DP in your area on Thu afternoon.
No, there is a strong cap and too much subsidence in the south on this run with zero cloud.
Anyway, this run has a finger licking 25C DP in your area on Thu afternoon.
Sorry, no - don't look at SBCAPE for those scenarios. Elevated storms left, right and centre on that run.
Anyway, all academic at this range!
Sorry, no - don't look at SBCAPE for those scenarios. Elevated storms left, right and centre on that run.Anyway, all academic at this range!
Yes of course, but I don't look at CAPE. I have access to its tephigrams and believe me there would be no cloud under this setup and no ascent.
Well we'll agree to disagree. But take it from me, that T+168 chart is as good as it gets for severe storms.
Tephs at that range?
Insane heat still there by 216h looks like the Azores builds in after as well perfect run.
Let's hope this run is a trend setter as its very different to anything we've seen recently.
I’m with xioni2 on this - no storms, or cloud apart from some cirrus. No storms over France either so no imports. Then by Saturday, joy of joys, it looks like we may get a dry change and secondary high.
We just can't seem to get decent storms into the UK these days. Kev Bradshaw did some research to show how thunder days have decreased since the early 2000s, more especially in the 2010s.
As I say all academic at this range. But if I'm the only one that can see massive storm potential on those ECM charts then it's time to shake the head and smile.
Well we'll agree to disagree. But take it from me, that T+168 chart is as good as it gets for severe storms.Tephs at that range?
You can have a tephi at 10 days out if you fancy
It's just a run anyway, but you can't derive everything from the Z500 etc, the structure is anticyclonic throughout the lower troposphere, there is a strong cap with a trigger surface temperature on Wed/Thu for convection in the south in the mid-40s.
It reminds me a bit of the last time when I was told that it'd be impossible to have surface temps of mid-20s with T850>20.
Oh it's a great setup for storms further north!
Yes, agreed on plume boundary potential, as I said before.
But Tephs at that range? Seriously? Not doubting they exist, but really?
Look deeper at whats occurring on those charts. If we had MUCAPE on ECM.....
Highest 2-metre temps on that ECM run are 37C on Friday.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019071812/buckinghamshire/max-temperature-6h/20190726-1800z.html
Highest 2-metre temps on that ECM run are 37C on Friday.https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019071812/buckinghamshire/max-temperature-6h/20190726-1800z.html
At 1pm though not the day max?
I'm with you Ben! Let's hope some move up the western side. I'll be in the Lakes š
That link is for the max temperature for the 6 hours up to 1800 UTC, or 7pm BST.
Ok thanks yes I see now still v hot.
Unusually consistent signal across the GFS Ensemble members next Wednesday for surface temps to be very high; check this out at 18z - all above 30C in CSEngland apart from 4- 29, 28, 26 and the lowest a 24. 10 are 32C+ . Thought I'd clicked the wrong postage stamp at first when I saw a mean of 31! Now what's making all those outcomes so hot when the Op has ditched the heat by then?
No ensembles yet, but I would look for the Op to be a huge outlier as early as T96/120