Yes, in the south mid or even high 20s look feasible next weekend still. (Automated output on my phone for London has 28 and 26 for Sat and Sun, the Beeb has 26 and 25, and both show sunny intervals as the predominant weather type. Unsettled and cooler weather is likely to affect western and more northern parts, of course.

 

Both GFS and ECM 0z runs build the AH in fairly quickly on Friday night into Saturday to dry things up for most of the UK (GFS even creates a UK high scenario temporarily), although both show a little low moving in early the following week.

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After a breakdown Thur/Fri with strong chances of PPN just about anywhere, next weekend looks perfectly acceptable. Fresher, yes, but mostly dry for most with plenty of sunshine around. BBC automated has even up here around 22c.

 

 

Exactly. Implied temps would be 25c in London and say 22c in Manchester with plenty of sunny spells on Saturday 27 July. Not raging heat, just nice English summer weather. There is some utterly misleading nonsense posted here on here daily, it must be very confusing for people who don’t know how to filter it out.

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Exactly. Implied temps would be 25c in London and say 22c in Manchester with plenty of sunny spells on Saturday 27 July. Not raging heat, just nice English summer weather. There is some utterly misleading nonsense posted here on here daily, it must be very confusing for people who don’t know how to filter it out.

 

It's certainly not the place to come for objective analysis (which it kinda should be - and largely used to be)

 

 

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Good god the GFS 6Z evolution is record breaking. Temps above 100F almost guaranteed if this verified. Another twist in the never ending saga of model watching.

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Good god the GFS 6Z evolution is record breaking. Temps above 100F almost guaranteed if this verified. Another twist in the never ending saga of model watching.

 

That's massively different to the 0z for late next week. In a good way. 

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That's massively different to the 0z for late next week. In a good way. 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_153_5.png

35c NW England. Just for fun of course but location records would surely go if that verified. 

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It's certainly not the place to come for objective analysis (which it kinda should be - and largely used to be)

 

 

 

The melodrama, trolling and hyperbole can ruin what could and should be an excellent resource for those of us interested in the weather and amateur forecasting. 

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Good god the GFS 6Z evolution is record breaking. Temps above 100F almost guaranteed if this verified. Another twist in the never ending saga of model watching.

 

Interesting, was only out to T100 when I last looked. Eyes down, look in! 

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That's massively different to the 0z for late next week. In a good way. 

 

I'm changing that to 'in a goodish way'

This run slides a low down the west of the British isles, with huge blocking to our east & north-east. The feed into the eastern half of the UK at least would be very warm, although positioning & eventual potency of the low would be crucial in not just whether this happens (probably unlikely this far out) but in how far west the excellent weather reaches.

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Yeah, this'd be a bit on the warm side!

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Interesting, was only out to T100 when I last looked. Eyes down, look in! 

 

GFS 6z has completely gone off on one, a heat fanatic from the local primary school has been at it with the red crayons. 

Has implied surface temperature of 30c in London at midnight Friday 26 July into Saturday 27 July. 

A certain hot outlier, probably going to be at the extremity of its own ensembles. 

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Yeah, this'd be a bit on the warm side!

Thursday is warmer and would threaten the 1990 records which is the warmest day ever in northern england. 33.7c Manchester, 34.4c Leeds and 34.5c Liverpool are the records (I think).   Just once please can it go off as per that run. 

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LOL at this run.

This is proper last minute change stuff - we're talking major pattern changes from one run to the other as early as 96 hours.
I can only hazard a guess that the low pressure hit Ben Stokes's bat on the way to the UK and bounced away for 4 overthrows.

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Thursday is warmer and would threaten the 1990 records which is the warmest day ever in northern england. 33.7c Manchester, 34.4c Leeds and 34.5c Liverpool are the records (I think).   Just once please can it go off as per that run. 

 

Oh jeez, it's my youngest's primary school 'prom' on the Thursday (my ickle girl starts senior school in Sept ) so on the plus side I'm off that day; on the negative it's going to be like a sauna in the venue they're having it at.

 

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Well it's fair to say, if, and that's a big IF, this GFS 6Z verifies, we are on the cusp of a major and prolonged heatwave.
As is the case in winter when we see Nirvana cold charts, this is just one run, and is so drastically different to the 0z, it must not be taken seriously, but very much in isolation at this stage.
I fully expect this to be an outlier, as was yesterday's 12z ECM. But the fact that these outliers keep being thrown out, not by one model, but by multiple models, could suggest that something like this is possible.
The next few runs will be important to see if we can get some sort of cross model agreement.
If we do, I think there is a greater than 50/50 chance that we are possibly about to experience the hottest weather this country has seen in our lifetimes, and possibly quite prolonged too.
Time, as ever, will tell.

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LOL at this run.

This is proper last minute change stuff - we're talking major pattern changes from one run to the other as early as 96 hours.
I can only hazard a guess that the low pressure hit Ben Stokes's bat on the way to the UK and bounced away for 4 overthrows.

 

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Oh jeez, it's my youngest's primary school 'prom' on the Thursday (my ickle girl starts senior school in Sept ) so on the plus side I'm off that day; on the negative it's going to be like a sauna in the venue they're having it at.

 

I'm taking the 6 hour ferry to Caen on Thursday, before driving South East towards Burgundy. Depending on model run it's either going to be fresh and a little choppy, or the hottest cruise-like ferry crossing ever. Last time I took a long cross channel ferry rather than Dover-Calais was in late July 1990, which was also rather a hot affair.

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I'm taking the 6 hour ferry to Caen on Thursday, before driving South East towards Burgundy. Depending on model run it's either going to be fresh and a little choppy, or the hottest cruise-like ferry crossing ever. Last time I took a long cross channel ferry rather than Dover-Calais was in late July 1990, which was also rather a hot affair.

 

Sorry to go off topic, but what's the drive south from Caen like in France?

We're thinking of doing this next summer, staying somewhere west of Nantes

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Thought I'd pop across and take a look at ICON 06z. It only goes up to 120z but I'd say it's half way between the morning runs and this latest GFS at that stage.

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Sorry to go off topic, but what's the drive south from Caen like in France?

We're thinking of doing this next summer, staying somewhere west of Nantes

Don't know yet as I usually go to Calais and then take the long boring Autoroute des Anglais down through champagne. We are staying in Caen then driving to Touraine, near Chenonceaux, staying overnight then carrying on to Burgundy. I think the first bit of the drive through Calvados is supposed to be pleasant, then a boring bit through the Paris basin, then interesting again in the Loire.

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