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Probably the hottest ECM run of all time at the 850 level. Utterly insane.
Yes it has 40C written all over it I think!
GEFS for London shows the Op is not a total outlier but is one of a small cluster that ditch the heat early. The control stays in the furnace for longer and some prolong the serious heat for almost a full week.
Here's the ECMENC 12z SD.
Yes it has 40C written all over it I think! GEFS for London shows the Op is not a total outlier but is one of a small cluster that ditch the heat early. The control stays in the furnace for longer and some prolong the serious heat for almost a full week.
I was expecting the PPN line to be negligible, given it underestimates convective potential.
No ensembles yet, but I would look for the Op to be a huge outlier as early as T96/120
And it is possibly the biggest outlier ever seen, with most members going for the cold front scenario on Wednesday with low pressure dominatng thereafter.
Which Op/ ensembles are you talking about, please; and, if you have a link, I might be able to access too.
Will be interesting to see the biggest outlier ever seen.
GFS 18z not having the new fashionable blowtorch thing. Fresh weather over us by Thursday. Will it be an outlier?
Yes, yet another bloody outlier.
Well according to BBC week ahead the peak of the heat will be Tuesday and by the weekend we will be on the cold side of the Jet driven by a very active cold front coning off the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. so it looks at the moment the least favoured option by the Met Offfice will be correct.
Which Op/ ensembles are you talking about, please; and, if you have a link, I might be able to access too.Will be interesting to see the biggest outlier ever seen.
Brian posted it a couple of posts above Ian's.
Yes agreement from the models out so far that the warmth will be blown away on Thursday and next weekend looks dreadful.
GFS certainly collapses the heat wave on or about Thursday, and thereafter alternates brief pulses of heat from the south with breakdowns from the west. 'Next' weekend (you mean the 27th/28th?) is one with westerly input but doesn't look worse than an average British summer to me. Ensembles still mostly dry in the south though NE England and Scotland have a lot of rainfall spikes.
ECM shows the warmth hanging on but only just, with most of the plume heading up to the Baltic.
GFS certainly collapses the heat wave on or about Thursday, and thereafter alternates brief pulses of heat from the south with breakdowns from the west. 'Next' weekend (you mean the 27th/28th?) is one with westerly input but doesn't look worse than an average British summer to me. Ensembles still mostly dry in the south though NE England and Scotland have a lot of rainfall spikes.ECM shows the warmth hanging on but only just, with most of the plume heading up to the Baltic.
indeed. I know he is trolling as usual but just for newcomers to the forum that one from Shropshire is one of the most misleading posts for a while.
Looking at the models and reading John Hammond,s latest look ahead it seems this Heatwave will be shortlived and fairly isolated. Indeed the following week he hints at more widespread unsettled weather with a trough sat over us.
After a breakdown Thur/Fri with strong chances of PPN just about anywhere, next weekend looks perfectly acceptable. Fresher, yes, but mostly dry for most with plenty of sunshine around. BBC automated has even up here around 22c.
Yes, in the south mid or even high 20s look feasible next weekend still. (Automated output on my phone for London has 28 and 26 for Sat and Sun, the Beeb has 26 and 25, and both show sunny intervals as the predominant weather type. Unsettled and cooler weather is likely to affect western and more northern parts, of course.