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But some of us who are gardeners do need the rain!I wasn't really agreeing with you earlier, but putting a different emphasis, hot early rather than warm, and a thundery breakdown followed by the foreseeable future pleasant rather than warm, i.e. close to or a little above average. I think that's still on according to the 06zFor warmth, I see that GFS06z has another (short-lived) plume around the 29th once the thundery stuff is out of the way
But some of us who are gardeners do need the rain!
I wasn't really agreeing with you earlier, but putting a different emphasis, hot early rather than warm, and a thundery breakdown followed by the foreseeable future pleasant rather than warm, i.e. close to or a little above average. I think that's still on according to the 06z
For warmth, I see that GFS06z has another (short-lived) plume around the 29th once the thundery stuff is out of the way
The average or slightly above is warm down here in July. That's my point.
I too am a gardener and I too want the rain midweek (just not next weekend thanks!)
Yes please GFS 6z rebuilds high pressure in FI. Probably the best possible outcome.
0600 operational seems to be towards the top of the ensemble pack - (has a few members offering support) - but the majority are a good deal lower - offering cooler/more changeable conditions.
12Z not as hot as the 06Z GFS. No 35C+ on this run.
Seems to show a new breakdown pattern which is very different from previous runs but presumably showed up on some of the ENS members that cooled down more quickly. UKMO seems to show the same: rapid breakdown from the West on Wednesday into Thursday, then fresher weather but settling down quite quickly.
Both GEM and UKMO have very hot Tuesday and Wednesday's. GEM has 33c and 36c respectively UKMO would probably be the same.
ICON is interesting tonight keeps the heat going to at least 180h Friday. 23c 850s still over the UK. Sometimes the Ecm follows the ICON so we'll see later.
Just stepping through the GEFS 12z on TWO and there appear to be some absolute flamethrowers on offer. I think 5 or 6 bring cooler air back to the south east by CoP on Thursday but the rest keep it hot.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=174&chartname=850tmp&chartregion=na-region&p=0&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C
Meanwhile in the real world the chance of some form of heatwave continues for the SE and possibly more widely. Emotive trolls best ignored.
Please stay on topic.
GEM has >20C 850s right up into southern Scotland, with most of England 22-23C! That's a near nationwide hot blast and I would suggest would seriously threaten the 2003 record.
GEM shows 33C on Tuesday and 36C on Wed for London, but its 2m temps tend to undercook as there’s low spatial resolution.
The way I am reading things at the moment is that while developments up to and including the early part of next week seem to be pretty well settled, what happened from midweek onwards is still very much up in the air. I think it is very much a case of watching the output carefully tomorrow and over the weekend to see whether or not the return to more settled conditions shown by the GFS 12z op gets any support from the other models.
UKMO would be high teens on Wednesday for the West and around 21C for Central areas.
You can see the divergence starting on the 25th with prob 60% going for a longer heatwave.
with 20c to 22c 850s covering most of England probably at least 10c to low.
Since when did summer heatwaves become this hard to predict ?
No, the front is lying across the UK on Wednesday and has already cleared Ireland and Western fringes introducing the cooler air. The SE would of course still be hot until Wednesday night.