15 July 1980 and sure there will be more times if one was to be bothered trawling through past charts 😊

 

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=cfsr&var=2&jaar=1980&maand=07&dag=15&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=64#mapref

 

Will we get winters to match the early 80s? We are in solar minimum at the moment, which I believe is at least partly responsible for the unusual synoptics being experienced. Would love another winter to match 81/82.

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Will we get winters to match the early 80s? We are in solar minimum at the moment, which I believe is at least partly responsible for the unusual synoptics being experienced. Would love another winter to match 81/82.

July 92 pockets of -5C & -6C between Shetland & Faroe. July 93 just of west coast of Scotland again -5C.

 

July 92 pockets of -5C & -6C between Shetland & Faroe. July 93 just of west coast of Scotland again -5C.

 

IMBY, both 2009/10 and 2010/11 were up in that sort of quality.

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Another spell of mid to upper 20s looks very possible later this week in the south at least according to 00z UKMO with high temps extending further north by Friday and Saturday

 

We are in an agreeable pattern whereby the weather in the SE is best at the weekend. Even in June, we had some lovely weekends. 

 

Great timing by the weather gods! 

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6z GFS continues the general theme of blocking to our west and a big low over Scandinavia for the next 7-10 days. A flow largely from a northerly quadrant but pleasant enough without being warm. 

As we move into FI, I see the familiar story of deepening a low off Newfoundland and having it move eastwards to set up residence over Blighty. 

 

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We are in an agreeable pattern whereby the weather in the SE is best at the weekend. Even in June, we had some lovely weekends. 

 

Great timing by the weather gods! 

GM to be at the slow end of most models/ensembles in bringing the front southwards later in the week - suggest high 20's unlikely. More likely 22 to 24C. Still very pleasant and acceptable of course......

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Will we get winters to match the early 80s? We are in solar minimum at the moment, which I believe is at least partly responsible for the unusual synoptics being experienced. Would love another winter to match 81/82.

The 2009/10 winter and then the memorable December of 2010 must have come pretty close to the excellent early 80s winter spells, Maunder. Add to that the beast from the east in late Feb/early March 2018, althought it was much shorter in duration than the aforementioned severe spells at the turn of the last decade.

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The 2009/10 winter and then the memorable December of 2010 must have come pretty close to the excellent early 80s winter spells, Maunder. Add to that the beast from the east in late Feb/early March 2018, althought it was much shorter in duration than the aforementioned severe spells at the turn of the last decade.

We can but hope to see some future noteworthy wintery spells. Given that this is the year of an extended solar minimum, something should give.

I guess the issue then becomes the competing changes generated by global warming and ENSO causing problems.

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Global warming must surely make the chances of another Feb '86,Jan '87 or Feb '91 less likely in the future. Would scientists not predict shorter colder spells are more likely to be the norm going forward perhaps of a few days to a week in length?

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Global warming must surely make the chances of another Feb '86,Jan '87 or Feb '91 less likely in the future. Would scientists not predict shorter colder spells are more likely to be the norm going forward perhaps of a few days to a week in length?

True, but I can recall that some people here were saying a decade ago that the chances of any future long-lasting severe wintry spells in this country were pretty much nil. Then we had a month-long severe spell in 2009/10, and then the same thing happened again the following winter.

 

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Model output starting to get into a deteriorating pattern, with each run cooler and more dominated by Northern blocking than the last. 12z GFS is not great, nor are GEFS. UKMO continues a bit better. ECM was going the way of GFS this morning so I really hope it gives us something to cheer this evening.

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Global warming must surely make the chances of another Feb '86,Jan '87 or Feb '91 less likely in the future. Would scientists not predict shorter colder spells are more likely to be the norm going forward perhaps of a few days to a week in length?

Probably less frequent, but by no means impossible. For the UK to get extended cold during the winter months, we need several favourable synoptic events to coincide, leading to persistent negative NAO. I don't see why AGW should make that less likely than otherwise. The thing which has to be destroyed is the Canadian polar vortex and it is an oddity that the PV so likes to set itself up on the Canadian side instead of on the Asian side - is that a consequence of AGW, or just a part of the natural variability in the climate?

 

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Notable that heavy blocking maintains its influence in the output - unfortunately for those seeking the heat, the pattern looks like setting up with the block again to our west putting us on the wrong side of the Jet, which has been hinted at in the MetO outlooks for a while now.

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Yes, ECM looks pants and as I’m due on holiday in France quite soon it’s more concerning that things look even more pants there - pressure at 1005 by 240hrs which basically means washout.

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Yes, ECM looks pants and as I’m due on holiday in France quite soon it’s more concerning that things look even more pants there - pressure at 1005 by 240hrs which basically means washout.

 

I quite liked the look of the GFS London ens - dry and fairly warm for the next week, with a day of so of hotter stuff (not so nice for me, but I know lots will enjoy) and then cooler weather  (but down here still very pleasant at 20c or so) with a small amount of rain around to keep the garden happy. Coupled with cooler nights that sounds rather pleasant to me

Very IMBY I know but I usually find that regardless of the set up it's rarely anything other than 'warm' down here in July, even with uppers below average we seem to fairly effortlessly hit 20c or so in any sunshine. August tends to be the month that cooler uppers are felt more particularly later in the month, with longer nights and weaker sun.

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Looks like it could go either cool and showery next week or warmer and sunny. This Summer the pattern seems to be a Western block rather than a really strong Azores High so i think it is most likely to become cooler and showery again more generally  after this week

After the heat wave, a large area of W Europe with below average temps (but UK is average)

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Dry in the first week but rain for the UK, especially for the south, in the second week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

EDIT Weather for the Week Ahead admitting uncertainty for that week, but inclined not to predict rain

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Theme for the end of the model watching period is definitely for NW Europe to cool down. Could feel decidedly chilly and be wet with some low maxima about. Very different to last year

I've updated the TWO GFS temperature anomaly charts this afternoon. The 5 and 10 day ones should now represent the data more accurately.

5 day link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=0&chartname=meantemp5dayeuhd&chartregion=ukagg&charttag=5%20day%20temp%20anomaly

10 day link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=0&chartname=meantemp10dayeuhd&chartregion=ukagg&charttag=10%20day%20temp%20anomaly

 

 

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Models seem in a state of chaos at the moment, but a lovely ECM tonight hopefully it's onto something. 

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