ECM mean is still hugely dominated by the Azores high great run.

 

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Just wanted to freshen up this post Tim as it's the first on the MOD that sees the unsure reality, a week ahead. 

Relevance: sometimes the models do verify at that range.

Yes and looking at the subsequent posts the GFS picked up on the surprisingly low surface temps a long way out too. Quite a good performance from over a week out. 

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 Yes and looking at the subsequent posts the GFS picked up on the surprisingly low surface temps a long way out too. Quite a good performance from over a week out. 

The EC op picked up the low surface temps and the N.Sea feed about 1.5 day before the GFS (e.g. GFS 06z op from last Saturday was still showing 30s for Wed-Fri this week).

 

It's a pretty impressive GFS 06z run if you like warm and dry weather.

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It's a pretty impressive GFS 06z run if you like warm and dry weather.

 

Barring the odd run, the majority of output is suggesting a settled spell. Not particularly warm/hot, and the far north and east will at times be susceptible to less good conditions, but overall and great outlook as it stands.

 

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Barring the odd run, the majority of output is suggesting a settled spell. Not particularly warm/hot, and the far north and east will at times be susceptible to less good conditions, but overall and great outlook as it stands.

 

Some pretty chilly nights too. Ground frost not out of the question in the Midlands. Meanwhile a deluge in a band across Central Europe between the oven to the South and the fresh stuff to the North.

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GEFS giving the most easily described output. General trend across the country is for temps back down to normal for Sunday, thereafter a few days below and then back to normal for some time to come. Dry in the south, rain from time to time in the north.

But you may well want to discount that as GEFS has been bullish for some time about the 'heatwave' in the UK this week so far. GFS and ECM charts are more variable, showing a weak plume of warm air later next week , followed by cold LP from the NW a week later.

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Output definitely more mixed this morning,  most of the long range forecasts paint an unsettled theme for July so I think we'll need some luck for a decent month. The heat is never far away to our south though. Next week looks good but no heat.

 

 

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ECM mean looks like it might be following the Op a bit at the end, upto day 8 though its fine summer weather for most.

July is fascinating because it could be anything from autumnal to record breaking heatwave.

 

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That record breaking bubble of cold is more prominent on this run.

 

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ECM mean looks like it might be following the Op a bit at the end, upto day 8 though its fine summer weather for most.

July is fascinating because it could be anything from autumnal to record breaking heatwave.

 

 

I'd be happy with dry, sunny and low-70's temps.

 

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I'd be happy with dry, sunny and low-70's temps.

 

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Hmm, hard to give this output much credence. Weird how the deviations turn so widely negative all of a sudden during days 9-10.

The picture seems confused this morning.

There's a weak El Nino tropical standing wave pattern looking to regain some control within the next few days, which is known to promote high pressure areas moving across W. Europe and the UK, much as the models were responding well to, for many days running, up until yesterday's runs.

Something's caused a stir now but it's hard to pin down the culprit. It could be a separate standing wave pattern across tropical Africa into the Indian Ocean; the modelling has displayed a habit of overcooking this in recent times, and it promotes the opposite pattern to the Nino standing wave. Two conflicting forces battling it out.

Alternatively, the thoroughly messed-up Arctic atmosphere, right up through to the mid-stratosphere (much warmer than usual, with anomalously strong and persistent areas of high pressure), could be distorting the patterns. If so, the models will really struggle to resolve the outcome and it'll be a very tough July to anticipate the behaviour of.

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528dm line within 50 miles or so from Shetland.

Its hard to enphasise how crazy this is to happen in July. I'm pretty sure its never happened before.

 

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From NHem view we can see there is only one other place in the entire northern hemisphere with the 528dm contour and that's in the baffin where the polar vortex is strongest and where presumably a remanant of it resides.

 

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Very cold 500hpa temps in shetland too could give rise to heavy, squally showers. With uppers around -5C in the heaviest of the showers we could see some flakes of wet snow.

This would be the first time ever that snow would have been reliably observed on a non mountain site in the UK in July.

 

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ECM mean looks like it might be following the Op a bit at the end, upto day 8 though its fine summer weather for most.

July is fascinating because it could be anything from autumnal to record breaking heatwave.

 

All in all though, it looks like a relatively long and relatively settled outlook. Not overly warm, in fact fairly cool at times, but pleasant and benign summer conditions.

 

That'll do me.

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All in all though, it looks like a relatively long and relatively settled outlook. Not overly warm, in fact fairly cool at times, but pleasant and benign summer conditions.

 

That'll do me.

Yes, me too.

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We really do seem to have a proper full on pattern change after this heatwave. From late May to last week we had negative NAO, Greenland high, trough to our SW and ridging over SE Europe. Quite 2007 in appearance.

From next week it’s neutral NAO (certainly not raging zonality though) but Atlantic ridging, Scandinavian trough and cool Central Europe. A very 2014 kind of pattern.

It would be simplistic to say the former is an El Niño signature and the latter is La Niña, but there’s a bit of that when you eyeball it.

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Stronger ridging from the Azores on tonight's ECM, after a couple of less summery runs.

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