Stronger ridging from the Azores on tonight's ECM, after a couple of less summery runs.

Yep. A brief flirt with a northerly which will be probably still quite pleasant in the sun, then the high toppling back.

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Need to join up the conveyor belt of depressions from Labrador to Svalbard, so we get some nice SW advection. The issue at the moment is a bit too much highish pressure breaking the chain South of Greenland and over the Norwegian Sea.

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Loving the 0z ECM. Very pleasant throughout with just the briefest hint of a gentle northerly mid-term.
If this verified, we are in for a very pleasant start to July.

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06z GFS continues the theme of HP to the West, WNW flow, occasional cooler incursions, and not much rain until right at the end.

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06z GFS continues the theme of HP to the West, WNW flow, occasional cooler incursions, and not much rain until right at the end.

Perfect summer conditions

Once tomorrow is out of the way...

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lovely UKMO 12z for warm sunny weather.

 GFS 12z also looks warm and sunny to at least day 9 . some solid summer output this afternoon 

 

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great to see some proper summery weather forecast after a washout June.

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Arpege forecast maxima for S UK tomorrow. Looks like the higher ground gets the prize in the far South ( more influence from the resident high temp uppers than the residual low level cool):

 

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Yep 33c for us here in Bucklebury, the Aussie wife is starting to thaw out slowly. Not sure the wolves will be happy down the road though...

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Back to average temps according to GEFS though parts of the SW may be a little above, and later on there's some cold (552 dam) air threatening the northern half of the UK

This cold patch has a weird distribution. At T+180, Spitzbergen (and later, Greenland) has 570dam air, on the 500hPa chart the same as, say, the Scottish borders, while 552dam air stretches all the way across the Atlantic from Scandinavia to Newfoundland

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Just scanning the 12z GFS. You’ve got to feel sorry for the Finns and Swedes. Low pressure just sits over NE Scandinavia and hardly moves for the foreseeable future, until at least 210hrs. Looks like a pretty miserable summer there.

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Lovely UKMO run actually gets quite hot by 144h 16c 850s on the south coast.

 

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GFS and GEM going for another heatwave end of next week GEM in particular gets very hot. UKMO settled, ECM less so but by no means a washout.

 

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Mostly dry next week, but looking wetter the following week which is in line with BEEB,s lmonthly look ahead.

The week ahead is looking quite pleasant for the majority with temps ranging from the mid to upper teens in the north and upper teens to mid 20s in the south and very little rain with high pressure dominating

00z UKMO 

Looking at the latest models some very useable weather next week for much of England and Wales, somewhat wetter at times further north.
Might feel a little warmer in the south by Friday

Truly remarkable. Again if anyone can find an example of the -5C 850hpa isotherm hitting the UK in July that would be appreciated. As far as I can tell this is the first time it has ever happened.

 

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Another spell of mid to upper 20s looks very possible later this week in the south at least according to 00z UKMO with high temps extending further north by Friday and Saturday

Truly remarkable. Again if anyone can find an example of the -5C 850hpa isotherm hitting the UK in July that would be appreciated. As far as I can tell this is the first time it has ever happened.

 

15 July 1980 and sure there will be more times if one was to be bothered trawling through past charts 😊

 

 https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=cfsr&var=2&jaar=1980&maand=07&dag=15&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=64#mapref