What does seem to be slightly more assured is the ridging in of HP for the weekend, with the LP to the west shallow and stalling. Not a solid HP cell though if some are the models are to be believed - the theme of troughing to our WSW continues. I'll stick with my brief plume scenarios for now, but the trend toward HP over the UK is tentatively there.

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Some boiling runs showing up on the Ensembles for sure. Perhaps this will verify and if so, in time for July, it would be significant. Brian's fabled "blowtorch" runs starting to show their hand.

 

I must be the only one enjoying the current conditions Kieran. Warmish days punctuated by midweek rain for the gardens. 

 

Plumes too hot for me – not my thing at all, unless they fall on a Saturday and I can spend the day wild swimming and drinking lager! 

 

But, interesting to note them popping up, nevertheless. 

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Just run through the 12z and some seriously hot air proves for next week in France. However, caution needed as only one model and one run

I’m off to Turkey so no doubt it will happen lol. In fact, in Turkey it’s looks like a northerly could develop brining cooler and fresher weather. I’ll be annoyed if that happens.

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I must be the only one enjoying the current conditions Kieran. Warmish days punctuated by midweek rain for the gardens. 

 

Plumes too hot for me – not my thing at all, unless they fall on a Saturday and I can spend the day wild swimming and drinking lager! 

 

But, interesting to note them popping up, nevertheless. 

I love a good hot plume, but I've also enjoyed being able to go picking some delicious mushrooms, and the clouds have made the normally shy snakes a little lazy meaning i finally found one in my local woodlands. 

My tomatoes look a little miserable though.

Hoping for the first T-Storm of the season tomorrow/tonight.

GFS0z and ECM continue to disagree, with GFS pulling in lots of warm air next week before reverting to LP off the NW of Scotland and cooler weather for all. ECM has the warmth pushed a bit too far east to affect the UK. 

Ensemble charts indicate a more continental type of weather for England, esp the S, with intermittent sharp rainfall spikes and some runs at least above average temp - this tendency still noticeable but less marked for S Scotland while Inverness looks as if it will have a more Atlantic type throughout with regular rain and temps near or a little below average.

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Some good posts here . One or two though going OT. Please stay on topic.

 

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Today’s GFS 06z brings us 850s never seen before on these isles (26C at one point), and parks 28C+ uppers over central France with low 40s maxima.

I note none of the other models get anything close to this. Could it be an issue with the new GFS release? Or are we about to test the June record?

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Today’s GFS 06z brings us 850s never seen before on these isles (26C at one point), and parks 28C+ uppers over central France with low 40s maxima.

I note none of the other models get anything close to this. Could it be an issue with the new GFS release? Or are we about to test the June record?

Looking at the data over the past couple of days, I'm tentatively hopeful of some summery weather over the weekend and next week.

From an IMBY perspective I'd be perfectly happy with high pressure anchored over Northern England and Scotland - GFS has been fairly keen on this scenario in its last few runs.

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Exceptional 850 temps but underwhelming 2m temps (according to GFS) outside the SE.
Some spots on northern England have daytime 850's higher than 2m temp which seems bizarre at this time of year.

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Another very hot GFS run UKMO much better aswell.

 

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Another very hot GFS run UKMO much better aswell.

 

Hot 850s yes, but temps at 2m don't equate to the 850s.

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Hot 850s yes, but temps at 2m don't equate to the 850s.

 

Think GFS has issues with cloud cover , if its cloudy then it will feel very humid if the sun comes out it will be 30c + in the SE no probs. 

 

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Think GFS has issues with cloud cover , if its cloudy then it will feel very humid if the sun comes out it will be 30c + in the SE no probs. 

 

Much more likely to be cloudy and extremely thundery though. But unsurprisingly, the 12z is FAR less extreme and remains very unsettled. Lots more flooding is likely off the back of this run.

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Much lower temps on the 12z Ensembles as to be expected. But the longevity of the warmth has grown and it seems drier. Could summer be on the way finally?

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Much lower temps on the 12z Ensembles as to be expected. But the longevity of the warmth has grown and it seems drier. Could summer be on the way finally?

 

ECM also going plumetastic as well with 18c 850s into the SE at 168h. 

 

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ECM goes bang at 192h but GFS appears to be leading the way at the moment. 

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Much lower temps on the 12z Ensembles as to be expected. But the longevity of the warmth has grown and it seems drier. Could summer be on the way finally?

Let's hope so Kieren, especially for those who have unfortunately been affected by flooding in the past week.

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Is the GFS 18z the start of Summer? will the Biscay low spoil the party? impressive upper air temps, but cloud cover might suppress the ground temps.

Gfs18 again has this weird gap between 850s and 2m temps. But not in France where 42C shown.

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Gfs18 again has this weird gap between 850s and 2m temps. But not in France where 42C shown.

It seems to be an error with this modelling. Looking at the cloudcover charts it shows a lot of clear skies with 20c+ 850s. 

The thing is, whilst it's underdoing 2m temps, it's also underdoing the dew point, which is in turn means it's underdoing CAPE. Hot, moist flow over the UK means high CAPE values and thunderstorms. None of that is modelled, even when more moisture is added from the advancing trough.

Hard to have much faith in the general output that it is churning out at present given the obvious discrepancies.

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