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Do you have air con or just not like sleeping?
We're lucky down here in that out nights remain fairly consistent during summer regardless of heatwave conditions or not. 14C-17C range is the average night to night range but occasionally 18C or a cooler 13C. So when we get hot nights like last year or the year before and lows don't drop below 20/21C it's not as much as a shock to our bodies. 😊
Meteo France forecasts are now starting to move into line with what GFS op has been showing since yesterday. The chances of a historic heatwave in much of Western Europe are rapidly increasing. Whether it pays the UK more than a glancing blow is open to debate.
Met office's daily update doesn't buy into any heatwave.
Weirdly the Met Office site for the SE says "Becoming very warm over the weekend" but then shows maxes of 21 and 23C for Sat and Sun in London! Up to 26C by Tuesday though.
Exactly very warm in the southeast when used during summer by met office would indicate 26-29C however even Heathrow doesn't get above 25C and that's not until Sunday.
That said we're looking at the automated temps and they'll likely be significantly different to what actually happens, and the met are know this hence what is written.
let's hope this doesn't all go Pete Tong and we end up with cloudy skies and patchy rain.
That is very true. However, Meteo France weren't even picking the heat in central and southern France in their automated forecasts until today. I'm starting to wonder if we're going in for a spell as dramatic and historic as Jan 1987. Now having said that I fully appreciate the heat may not reach the UK.
yes friends in France have told me that some of the local radio stations are mooting the idea of an approaching heatwave. As you say though it’s open to debate if it reaches us. Looking at the upstream synopsis I think we will miss it but it could be a close call.
Reading between the lines on the Met Office update with the talk of Thunderstorm in Central and Eastern areas it would indicate we are on the edge of the Heat but close enough for it to trigger Storms we could find a shift east or West which could mean we either get significant heat with a shift Westwards or nothing at all and cooler weather with a shift East ....definitely one to watch over the coming days.
It certainly will in Gloucestershire, maxes of 19.0 c scorching ! the GFZ 12z already looking cooler and unsettled.
Ecm still very hot 19c 850s at 144h into the south.
🥵 uppers 25.7 no 6
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0
Worth noting that in terms of the ensembles, there's not a great deal of change on the GFS 12z from the 6z, it's just where the Op lies in the pack. Also worth noting that high temps 1km up won't have a huge impact if there's a) plenty of cloud cover due to cyclonic influence, or b) ESE winds over a still relatively cool north sea (for eastern areas, ofc!).
ECM is looking humid and very thundery .
Not so sure we really want to see that...especially the saturated East. And the ECM 12z goes very unsettled indeed later on....albeit FI.
Are you joking? Been an eternity since I saw a classic thundery spell. I'll take it with open arms, flooding or not!
You can't get to witness the interesting weather without the resultant consequences. First and foremost I'm a severe convective weather lover.
Are you joking? Been an eternity since I saw a classic thundery spell. I'll take it with open arms, flooding or not!You can't get to witness the interesting weather without the resultant consequences. First and foremost I'm a severe convective weather lover.
Its a double edged sword, because we are all lovers of extremes, and intense thunderstorms are without a doubt very exciting, but with all the flooding of recent weeks, its just a massive concern of the devastation it could all cause. Still a long way off in terms of likelihood and I daresay it won't be so dramatic in reality.
Yes, it's very rarely as dramatic as first advertised. I can see a situation developing where we see a more widespread area of extremely intense dynamic rainfall with embedded convective elements, pushing up the western side of the UK with the heat sparking some severe surface based storms further E.
Would be interesting to see the rainfall projections for the ECM.
OK, I've looked at the rainfall accumulation projections on weather.us for the ECM run. Widely 2 inches of rainfall further W&NW with up to 3 inches in places.
Further SE it's much drier. However, it's pertinent to remember that the ECM precipitation charts seem to significantly underestimate convective rainfall.