Scottish February max record gone with Aboyne at 18.3C currently. Like many others I went far too low this month.

My only hope is that when Aboyne equalled the UK January record in 1990 three days later it was below zero with heavy snow. Again in 2012 it broke the Scottish March record with 23.3C and a week later at the beginning of April it had 6 inches of snow.

Nothing similar looking likely this time round though.

This exceptional weather setup is arguably a bit of a negative for the CET competition; it's going to create a very wide spread of cumulative errors for so early on. I wonder if this might put those who've been most unlucky this month off continuing, as already a lot of poor luck is needed by those who've fared well this month and last in order for there to be a shout at landing in the top 5, let alone a podium finish.

Depends if doing well matters much for the enjoyment I suppose. For me, for example, I do like to set a goal such as top ten but that's about half of what keeps me going, the other being a strange determination to find a way to reliably achieve decent results using model guidance, theory etc. This month is a major fail on so many levels - unusually many! - but if I manage a less than 1*C error in at least 9 months of the year, that's technically a good result from a skill perspective. So I'm still in the game for that one at least .

Cumulative error obviously has its limitations, but for it's simplicity and ease of understanding it also has strong merits for a competition/game like this. The only adjustment I'd make if I was running one of my own would be to cap the maximum error at 2*C.

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Met Office Hadley        6.2c.    Anomaly    2.6c. Provisional to 21st.

MetCheck                    6.07c    Anomaly    1.87c

Netweather                 6.55c    Anomaly     2.36c

Clevedon Weather       7.76c    Anomaly      1.77c

Peasedown St John     8.2c      Anomaly      3.9c

Treviskey Redruth      7.8c.      Anomaly      1.17c

My Mean stations mean  6.78c   Anomaly   2.23c.       

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This exceptional weather setup is arguably a bit of a negative for the CET competition; it's going to create a very wide spread of cumulative errors for so early on. I wonder if this might put those who've been most unlucky this month off continuing, as already a lot of poor luck is needed by those who've fared well this month and last in order for there to be a shout at landing in the top 5, let alone a podium finish.

Depends if doing well matters much for the enjoyment I suppose. For me, for example, I do like to set a goal such as top ten but that's about half of what keeps me going, the other being a strange determination to find a way to reliably achieve decent results using model guidance, theory etc. This month is a major fail on so many levels - unusually many! - but if I manage a less than 1*C error in at least 9 months of the year, that's technically a good result from a skill perspective. So I'm still in the game for that one at least .

Cumulative error obviously has its limitations, but for it's simplicity and ease of understanding it also has strong merits for a competition/game like this. The only adjustment I'd make if I was running one of my own would be to cap the maximum error at 2*C.

Absolute cumulative errors don't matter. It's what you do relative to everybody else that counts. At least my prediction is towards the top end of the pack so I'm reasonably happy whatever happens. But nobody will be covering themselves with glory this month that's for sure! It could well happen that the final CET is higher than any of our predictions. I'm relatively new to this comp so I don't know but has this ever happened before, or indeed a lower CET than antbody predicted?

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Absolute cumulative errors don't matter. It's what you do relative to everybody else that counts. At least my prediction is towards the top end of the pack so I'm reasonably happy whatever happens. But nobody will be covering themselves with glory this month that's for sure! It could well happen that the final CET is higher than any of our predictions. I'm relatively new to this comp so I don't know but has this ever happened before, or indeed a lower CET than antbody predicted?

It has happened many times in both directions. December 2010 and December 2015 being examples that immediately spring to mind.

Latest CET tracker. Looks like we may fall short of 7C. Despite very warm days the latest estimates are for some very cold nights across the southern part of the CET area. So not as warm in terms of average temperatures as it might otherwise have been. Stonyhurst is expected to be a bit warmer at night.

Yesterday we had a CET date record with a mean of 11.1C beating the record of 10.6C set in 1813. This was due to very high minimums yesterday. Much cooler this morning so the CET was under 10C today.

Met Office Hadley        6.4c     Anomaly      2.7c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                     6.15c.   Anomaly      1.95c

Netweather                  6.64c    Anomaly      2.45c

Canvey Island              6.8c      Anomaly      1.92c

Cheadle Hulme             7.1c     Anomaly       2.09c

Clevedon Weather         7.7c    Anomaly        1.77c

Darwen                        5.4c    Anomaly        0.52c

Hexham                       6.0c    Anomaly        1.79c

Linford                         6.5c    Anomaly        1.8c

Mount Sorrel                6.2c    Anomaly        1.65c

Forest Town Mansfield   6.9c    Anomaly        2.6c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly        3.9c

Treviskey Redruth        7.9c.    Anomaly       1.29c.

Mean of my 10 using 6 Year Average 6.87c. Anomaly 2.32c.     

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Worth noting that the mean daily CET on 4th Feb 2004 was a staggering 12.8°C! (This is a degree and a half warmer than 10th and 11th July 1993.)

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Met Office Hadley        6.5c.    Anomaly    2.8c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    6.22c   Anomaly    2.02c

Netweather                 6.76c   Anomaly    2.57c

Darwen                       5.8c    Anomaly    0.9c

Hexham                      6.2c    Anomaly    1.99c

Mount Sorrel               6.3c     Anomaly    1.75c

Mean of my 10   7.2c   Anomaly   2.65c.          

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Even though it has completely destroyed me in the competition I've enjoyed this warm February. If all mild winter months were like this - ie dry sunny and "springlike" - then I wouldn't mind them. Thinking of the last time we hit 7c in February back in 2002 - I remember that being a very wet windy and miserable month in the main , with the high CET being mainly achieved by a ludicrously consistent run of very mild days and nights (but no exceptionally mild days as we've seen this year) during a first half in which it barely stopped raining. Totally unpleasant and completely different in character !

Met Office Hadley        6.6c.      Anomaly       2.9c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     6.39c     Anomaly       2.9c   

Netweather                  6.79c     Anomaly       2.6c

Clevedon Weather         7.8c       Anomaly      1.87c

Forest Town Mansfield   7.1c       Anomaly       2.8c

Treviskey Redruth         8.0c       Anomaly       1.37c

Mean of My 10 stations 7.02c.     Anomaly       2.47c.   

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Even though we're not going to break the record for the warmest February CET, or even come close to it, I think it's safe to say that February 2019 is now going to go down as a historic winter month.

I wonder if the warmest second half of February is still up for grabs?

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Absolute cumulative errors don't matter. It's what you do relative to everybody else that counts. At least my prediction is towards the top end of the pack so I'm reasonably happy whatever happens. But nobody will be covering themselves with glory this month that's for sure! It could well happen that the final CET is higher than any of our predictions. I'm relatively new to this comp so I don't know but has this ever happened before, or indeed a lower CET than antbody predicted?

Hi Col. I see where you're coming from, but those relative changes may still be very dispiriting to some. Hopefully not too much though!

Also, I reckon anyone who lands it within 1.5*C of the actual following such extraordinary developments will have fared well this month.

As for marting, well who knows what went on there? A fluke... or hidden talents! The next few months will soon tell .

 

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Even though we're not going to break the record for the warmest February CET, or even come close to it, I think it's safe to say that February 2019 is now going to go down as a historic winter month.

I wonder if the warmest second half of February is still up for grabs?

 

Is it possible that the record for Max temperature, 10.7°C, might fall? 

Even though we're not going to break the record for the warmest February CET, or even come close to it, I think it's safe to say that February 2019 is now going to go down as a historic winter month.

I wonder if the warmest second half of February is still up for grabs?

I know this winter has been a disappointment to many, but February has been a pretty superb month here. An epic snowfall to kick things off, followed by a beautifully sunny weekend with deep snow cover, then just a couple of weeks later a warm spell arriving with temperatures hitting the high teens for almost a week with almost unbroken sunshine!

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Is it possible that the record for Max temperature, 10.7°C, might fall? 

A very good chance I would say. Provisional max CET to yesterday was 10.37C. Three more warm days including today should push that up another 0.5C or so getting to about 10.9C. Probably holding steady on the final day of the month. So will come down to the size of the month end adjustment. But the 1998 record is definitely under threat.

Met Office Hadley         6.7c.      Anomaly      3.0c

Metcheck                      6.47c     Anomaly       2.27c

Netweather                   6.85c     Anomaly       2.66c

Cheadle Hulme              7.4c       Anomaly       2.39c

Clevedon Weather          7.9c      Anomaly       1.97c

Hexham                        6.1c      Anomaly        1.89c

Treviskey Redruth           8.0c     Anomaly        1.37c

Mean of my 10 stations   7.11c    Anomaly       2.45c.

   

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Met Office Hadley          6.9c.      Anomaly       3.2c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                       6.55c     Anomaly       2.35c

Netweather                    6.92c     Anomaly       2.73c

Cheadle Hulme               7.5c       Anomaly       2.49c

Clevedon Weather           8.0c       Anomaly       2.07c

Peasedown St John         8.5c       Anomaly       4.25c 

Treviskey Redruth           7.9c       Anomaly       1.27c

Mean of my 10 with 6-year averages   7.18c. Anomaly 2.63c.

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Went for a very high value in January, only for it to finish near average. Went for a nearer average value in Feb, but unsurprisingly, it will finish with a very high figure. 

So, my well thought out methodology wasn't all that wrong... just badly timed. 

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Went for a very high value in January, only for it to finish near average. Went for a nearer average value in Feb, but unsurprisingly, it will finish with a very high figure. 

So, my well thought out methodology wasn't all that wrong... just badly timed. 

To paraphrase Eric Morecambe, ‘the right predictions, but not necessarily in the right order’?