Met Office Hadley        5.7c.     Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     5.67c     Anomaly     1.67c

Netweather                  6.13c     Anomaly     1.94c

Clevedon Weather         7.4c      Anomaly     1.47c

Linford                         6.0c      Anomaly      1.3c

Forest Town Mansfield     6.2c     Anomaly      1.9c

Peasedown St John         7.8c     Anomaly      3.55c

Treviskey Cornwall        7.5c     Anomaly    0.87c.

men Of My 10      6.4c    Anomaly    1.85c.  

I've been doing quite a bit of reading into the interference patterns seen this year and as far as I can see, the most similar historical years for this are 1995 and 2002.

So not surprising to see 2002 in the 7s club for the Feb CET.

So, feasibly, this month's super-mild outcome could have been foreseen if it had been possible to have much confidence in whether the interference pattern would give way or not.

Therein lies a huge problem; anticipating how that will unfold requires dependable projections for tropical phenomena such as the MJO, and we simply don't have those to hand.

This past week presented a clear example of the poor reliability; GEFS/GFS was very insistent on an extremely powerful tropical Pacific WWB across the Dateline that would have likely taken apart the Nina-like tendencies in the subtropics, but the actual outcome has been an only modestly strong event and not only that, but one centred more in the S Hemisphere than the N Hemisphere - focusing impacts on the wrong side for us.

EPS/ECM had a weaker WWB but still stronger than observed so it was not providing enough of a counter-signal to be able to make a confident decision one way or the other.

The same issues have plagued long-range guidance providers throughout this winter. The Nina-like interference (anomalous westerlies being deposited onto the northern flanks of the subtropical highs, making them stronger) has, it turns out, persisted most of the time, but there were a lot of occasions when the modelling was suggesting that developments would occur that could break it down, and not enough evidence to support contradicting those models. So, all that could be reasonably done was to take the modelling guidance, factor in the most similar historical cases in which the tropics behaved as the models predicted at the time and the relevant theory, and hope for the best.

I have a feeling climate change has, via expanding the Hadley cell and hence strengthening and inflating the subtropical highs northward, increased the readiness at which the atmosphere can take on this state by increasing the baseline westerly flow on the northern flanks of the subtropical highs.

I really hope I'm missing something there, because I don't fancy taking on many more seasons in which this interference pattern is playing havoc with the atmosphere! On the other hand, it's a great ingredient to have in play when it comes to fine summer weather in this country... you lose some, you win some! Hmm I'm definitely going to be missing something now aren't I? 

Met Office Hadley         5.8c.     Anomaly      2.2c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     5.78c     Anomaly      1.38c

Netweather                  6.02c     Anomaly      2.01c

Mount Sorrel                5.8c.     Anomaly      2.0c

Forest Town  Mansfield 6.3c    Anomaly    2.0c

Peasedown St John     7.8c     Anomaly    3.55c

Treviskey Redruth     7.6c.    Anomaly    0.97c.

mean of my 10 stations  6.47c. Anomaly 1.92c.       

Met Office Hadley         6.0c.      Anomaly     2.3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      5.94c    Anomaly     1.74c

Netweather                   6.35c    Anomaly     1.3c

Darwen                        5.3c      Anomaly      0.42c

Hexam                         5.8c      Anomaly      1.59c   

Mount Sorrel                6.0c.     Anomaly      1.45c.

Clevedon Weather         7.6c.    Anomaly       1.67c

Peasedown St John       8.0c     Anomaly       3.75c

Treviskey  Redruth       7.8c.     Anomaly       1.17c.

Mean of my 10 stations 6.69c  Anomaly     2.14c.         

Still a lot better than mine, at 3.35°C!

My only hope is that when Aboyne equalled the UK January record in 1990 three days later it was below zero with heavy snow. Again in 2012 it broke the Scottish March record with 23.3C and a week later at the beginning of April it had 6 inches of snow.

Nothing similar looking likely this time round though.

This exceptional weather setup is arguably a bit of a negative for the CET competition; it's going to create a very wide spread of cumulative errors for so early on. I wonder if this might put those who've been most unlucky this month off continuing, as already a lot of poor luck is needed by those who've fared well this month and last in order for there to be a shout at landing in the top 5, let alone a podium finish.

Depends if doing well matters much for the enjoyment I suppose. For me, for example, I do like to set a goal such as top ten but that's about half of what keeps me going, the other being a strange determination to find a way to reliably achieve decent results using model guidance, theory etc. This month is a major fail on so many levels - unusually many! - but if I manage a less than 1*C error in at least 9 months of the year, that's technically a good result from a skill perspective. So I'm still in the game for that one at least .

Cumulative error obviously has its limitations, but for it's simplicity and ease of understanding it also has strong merits for a competition/game like this. The only adjustment I'd make if I was running one of my own would be to cap the maximum error at 2*C.

Met Office Hadley        6.2c.    Anomaly    2.6c. Provisional to 21st.

MetCheck                    6.07c    Anomaly    1.87c

Netweather                 6.55c    Anomaly     2.36c

Clevedon Weather       7.76c    Anomaly      1.77c

Peasedown St John     8.2c      Anomaly      3.9c

Treviskey Redruth      7.8c.      Anomaly      1.17c

My Mean stations mean  6.78c   Anomaly   2.23c.       

Absolute cumulative errors don't matter. It's what you do relative to everybody else that counts. At least my prediction is towards the top end of the pack so I'm reasonably happy whatever happens. But nobody will be covering themselves with glory this month that's for sure! It could well happen that the final CET is higher than any of our predictions. I'm relatively new to this comp so I don't know but has this ever happened before, or indeed a lower CET than antbody predicted?

It has happened many times in both directions. December 2010 and December 2015 being examples that immediately spring to mind.

Latest CET tracker. Looks like we may fall short of 7C. Despite very warm days the latest estimates are for some very cold nights across the southern part of the CET area. So not as warm in terms of average temperatures as it might otherwise have been. Stonyhurst is expected to be a bit warmer at night.

Yesterday we had a CET date record with a mean of 11.1C beating the record of 10.6C set in 1813. This was due to very high minimums yesterday. Much cooler this morning so the CET was under 10C today.

Met Office Hadley        6.4c     Anomaly      2.7c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                     6.15c.   Anomaly      1.95c

Netweather                  6.64c    Anomaly      2.45c

Canvey Island              6.8c      Anomaly      1.92c

Cheadle Hulme             7.1c     Anomaly       2.09c

Clevedon Weather         7.7c    Anomaly        1.77c

Darwen                        5.4c    Anomaly        0.52c

Hexham                       6.0c    Anomaly        1.79c

Linford                         6.5c    Anomaly        1.8c

Mount Sorrel                6.2c    Anomaly        1.65c

Forest Town Mansfield   6.9c    Anomaly        2.6c

Peasedown St John      8.2c     Anomaly        3.9c

Treviskey Redruth        7.9c.    Anomaly       1.29c.

Mean of my 10 using 6 Year Average 6.87c. Anomaly 2.32c.     

Worth noting that the mean daily CET on 4th Feb 2004 was a staggering 12.8°C! (This is a degree and a half warmer than 10th and 11th July 1993.)

Met Office Hadley        6.5c.    Anomaly    2.8c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    6.22c   Anomaly    2.02c

Netweather                 6.76c   Anomaly    2.57c

Darwen                       5.8c    Anomaly    0.9c

Hexham                      6.2c    Anomaly    1.99c

Mount Sorrel               6.3c     Anomaly    1.75c

Mean of my 10   7.2c   Anomaly   2.65c.          

Even though it has completely destroyed me in the competition I've enjoyed this warm February. If all mild winter months were like this - ie dry sunny and "springlike" - then I wouldn't mind them. Thinking of the last time we hit 7c in February back in 2002 - I remember that being a very wet windy and miserable month in the main , with the high CET being mainly achieved by a ludicrously consistent run of very mild days and nights (but no exceptionally mild days as we've seen this year) during a first half in which it barely stopped raining. Totally unpleasant and completely different in character !

Met Office Hadley        6.6c.      Anomaly       2.9c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     6.39c     Anomaly       2.9c   

Netweather                  6.79c     Anomaly       2.6c

Clevedon Weather         7.8c       Anomaly      1.87c

Forest Town Mansfield   7.1c       Anomaly       2.8c

Treviskey Redruth         8.0c       Anomaly       1.37c

Mean of My 10 stations 7.02c.     Anomaly       2.47c.   

I wonder if the warmest second half of February is still up for grabs?

Hi Col. I see where you're coming from, but those relative changes may still be very dispiriting to some. Hopefully not too much though!

Also, I reckon anyone who lands it within 1.5*C of the actual following such extraordinary developments will have fared well this month.

As for marting, well who knows what went on there? A fluke... or hidden talents! The next few months will soon tell .

Is it possible that the record for Max temperature, 10.7°C, might fall? 

I know this winter has been a disappointment to many, but February has been a pretty superb month here. An epic snowfall to kick things off, followed by a beautifully sunny weekend with deep snow cover, then just a couple of weeks later a warm spell arriving with temperatures hitting the high teens for almost a week with almost unbroken sunshine!

A very good chance I would say. Provisional max CET to yesterday was 10.37C. Three more warm days including today should push that up another 0.5C or so getting to about 10.9C. Probably holding steady on the final day of the month. So will come down to the size of the month end adjustment. But the 1998 record is definitely under threat.

Met Office Hadley         6.7c.      Anomaly      3.0c

Metcheck                      6.47c     Anomaly       2.27c

Netweather                   6.85c     Anomaly       2.66c

Cheadle Hulme              7.4c       Anomaly       2.39c

Clevedon Weather          7.9c      Anomaly       1.97c

Hexham                        6.1c      Anomaly        1.89c

Treviskey Redruth           8.0c     Anomaly        1.37c

Mean of my 10 stations   7.11c    Anomaly       2.45c.

Met Office Hadley          6.9c.      Anomaly       3.2c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                       6.55c     Anomaly       2.35c

Netweather                    6.92c     Anomaly       2.73c

Cheadle Hulme               7.5c       Anomaly       2.49c

Clevedon Weather           8.0c       Anomaly       2.07c

Peasedown St John         8.5c       Anomaly       4.25c 

Treviskey Redruth           7.9c       Anomaly       1.27c

Mean of my 10 with 6-year averages   7.18c. Anomaly 2.63c.

Went for a very high value in January, only for it to finish near average. Went for a nearer average value in Feb, but unsurprisingly, it will finish with a very high figure. 

So, my well thought out methodology wasn't all that wrong... just badly timed. 

To paraphrase Eric Morecambe, ‘the right predictions, but not necessarily in the right order’?