Potentially some extraordinary temperatures for the rest of this month. Very warm conditions continuing to the end of the month. But of course things can still change.

Currently my tracker suggests a final CET of 7.08C.

Now if we take the period from 6 - 28 February the CET is predicted to be 8.15C

For the period 4-28 Feb the CET is predicted to be 7.86C

The CET record for February is 7.9C

So had it not been for the very cold first three days of this month, we could well have been on course to break the all time CET record for February.

For the second half of February the CET is predicted to be 9.35C which is remarkable - although not perhaps so surprising after the 9.7C we recorded in December 2015. 

The last time we saw a 7C February was in 2002. The warmest February of recent times was 1998 with 7.3C. The same figure was recorded in 1990. I don't think we will beat that this year but nevertheless a CET above 7C is a real possibility.

One other point worth noting is that every February above 7C in recent times has been followed by a very warm March as well. 

           Feb CET   Mar CET

2002    7.0C        8.2C
1998    7.3C        7.9C
1990    7.3C        8.3C
1961    6.9C        8.2C
1945    7.1C        7.9C

In fact years with a Feb CET above 6C have tended to be followed by a very warm March. Only exception was 1995. So very much odds on a warm March this year as well.

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My goodness. I've really stuffed my CET scores if this turns out. Means I'll have gone 2.5 TOO low.

What with December just short of 7.0C and a February that may end up as 7.0C - Means close to an all time mild winter record.

What with December just short of 7.0C and a February that may end up as 7.0C - Means close to an all time mild winter record.

 

There have been 13 winters since 1659 with a CET above 6C (six of them since 1989).

This year the CET would finish at 5.98C if we get a 7.1C February. So 14th warmest on record.

The average January scuppered any chance of a record this year. But given all the talk of a cold winter this year it just goes to show that the weather is very difficult to predict.

Here is how the CET panned out for each half monthly period (comparison to 1981-2010 mean)

1-16 Dec      6.57C (+1.60C)
17-31 Dec    7.24C (+2.97C)
1-16 Jan      5.29C (+0.90C)
17-31 Jan    2.53C (-1.96C)
1-14 Feb      4.81C (+0.32C) prov.
15-28 Feb    9.35C (+5.07C) est.

The potential anomaly for the second half of February is extraordinary. But very similar to December 2015 which was +5.1C, although that was of course sustained for a whole month.

 

There have been 13 winters since 1659 with a CET above 6C (six of them since 1989).

This year the CET would finish at 5.98C if we get a 7.1C February. So 14th warmest on record.

The average January scuppered any chance of a record this year. But given all the talk of a cold winter this year it just goes to show that the weather is very difficult to predict.

Here is how the CET panned out for each half monthly period (comparison to 1981-2010 mean)

1-16 Dec      6.57C (+1.60C)
17-31 Dec    7.24C (+2.97C)
1-16 Jan      5.29C (+0.90C)
17-31 Jan    2.53C (-1.96C)
1-14 Feb      4.81C (+0.32C) prov.
15-28 Feb    9.35C (+5.07C) est.

The potential anomaly for the second half of February is extraordinary. But very similar to December 2015 which was +5.1C, although that was of course sustained for a whole month.

Met Office Hadley        5.3c      Anomaly     1.5c. Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                     5.39c     Anomaly     1.1`9c

Netweather                  5.79c     Anomaly     1.6c

Clevedon Weather         7.1c      Anomaly      1.17c

Forest Town Mansfield    5.4c     Anomaly      1.6c

Peasedown St John        7.5c     Anomaly     3.25c

Treviskey Redruth          7.5c     Anomaly     0.87c.

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations  6.17c. Anomaly   1.62c

Looking good for the rest of this month. 

Enjoy the chase for a record February.  I won’t be here to enjoy it but at least our flight won’t be delayed due to snow, unlike last year when we flew on 1st March.  Knowing my luck it’ll be freezing when we return on 5th March. 

 

There have been 13 winters since 1659 with a CET above 6C (six of them since 1989).

This year the CET would finish at 5.98C if we get a 7.1C February. So 14th warmest on record.

The average January scuppered any chance of a record this year. But given all the talk of a cold winter this year it just goes to show that the weather is very difficult to predict.

Here is how the CET panned out for each half monthly period (comparison to 1981-2010 mean)

1-16 Dec      6.57C (+1.60C)
17-31 Dec    7.24C (+2.97C)
1-16 Jan      5.29C (+0.90C)
17-31 Jan    2.53C (-1.96C)
1-14 Feb      4.81C (+0.32C) prov.
15-28 Feb    9.35C (+5.07C) est.

The potential anomaly for the second half of February is extraordinary. But very similar to December 2015 which was +5.1C, although that was of course sustained for a whole month.

So, in a record that goes back 360 years we have the prospect of half of the warmest winters being in the last 30.

JMA global for Jan has us second warmest to the stonking 'Super Nino' peak so we are starting off as a warm global year?

With so much heat over the southern hemisphere's summer we might just see that trend continue as the sun travels north for our summer?

Again if we do see this propensity for H.P. to be a near constant factor in the UK weather continue then a Hot summer must be on the cards?

If I remember correctly, 1975 was a good summer, warm and very dry, and it was followed by the great summer of ‘76. Could last year have been a pre-cursor to a record breaker this year?  

If I remember correctly, 1975 was a good summer, warm and very dry, and it was followed by the great summer of ‘76. Could last year have been a pre-cursor to a record breaker this year?  

It's just this near constant H.P.'s that get me?

I might have been blinded by our washout years and so expect depression after depression passing over us ( with less ,or more, rain?) but we have seen a slow change to a more H.P. dominated synoptic since 2016 (IMBY) ?

The 'washout years' still put in some reasonable monthly temps even through the deep banks of cloud so what would a full on repeat of the 76' mega block enable temps to do?

It's starting to look like my guess is far too low for this month. Oh well!

If I remember correctly, 1975 was a good summer, warm and very dry, and it was followed by the great summer of ‘76. Could last year have been a pre-cursor to a record breaker this year?  

My thoughts too. If it does come off this summer could be like the uk has never experienced before.

 

My thoughts too. If it does come off this summer could be like the uk has never experienced before.

It’ll probably be wet and miserable, like most summers. Just to rile us all.

But if we repeated the pattern of this last 2 weeks of February in late July, with dry soils, we would almost certainly be touching or beating the 2003 record. It’s just about a perfect Western Europe heatwave set up.

Met Office Hadley         5.6c.     Anomaly     1.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      5.58c    Anomaly      1.38c

Netweather                   6.02c    Anomaly      1.83c

Clevedon Weather         7.3c      Anomaly      1.37c

Peasedown St John       7.7c      Anomaly       3.45c

Treviskey Redruth         7.6c.     Anomaly       0.97c.

Mean of My 10 Stations 6.37c.  Anomaly  1.82c. 

It's starting to look like my guess is far too low for this month. Oh well!

It's starting to look like everybody's guesses are far too low!

Met Office Hadley        5.7c.     Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     5.67c     Anomaly     1.67c

Netweather                  6.13c     Anomaly     1.94c

Clevedon Weather         7.4c      Anomaly     1.47c

Linford                         6.0c      Anomaly      1.3c

Forest Town Mansfield     6.2c     Anomaly      1.9c

Peasedown St John         7.8c     Anomaly      3.55c

Treviskey Cornwall        7.5c     Anomaly    0.87c.

men Of My 10      6.4c    Anomaly    1.85c.  

I've been doing quite a bit of reading into the interference patterns seen this year and as far as I can see, the most similar historical years for this are 1995 and 2002.

So not surprising to see 2002 in the 7s club for the Feb CET.

So, feasibly, this month's super-mild outcome could have been foreseen if it had been possible to have much confidence in whether the interference pattern would give way or not.

Therein lies a huge problem; anticipating how that will unfold requires dependable projections for tropical phenomena such as the MJO, and we simply don't have those to hand.

This past week presented a clear example of the poor reliability; GEFS/GFS was very insistent on an extremely powerful tropical Pacific WWB across the Dateline that would have likely taken apart the Nina-like tendencies in the subtropics, but the actual outcome has been an only modestly strong event and not only that, but one centred more in the S Hemisphere than the N Hemisphere - focusing impacts on the wrong side for us.

EPS/ECM had a weaker WWB but still stronger than observed so it was not providing enough of a counter-signal to be able to make a confident decision one way or the other.

The same issues have plagued long-range guidance providers throughout this winter. The Nina-like interference (anomalous westerlies being deposited onto the northern flanks of the subtropical highs, making them stronger) has, it turns out, persisted most of the time, but there were a lot of occasions when the modelling was suggesting that developments would occur that could break it down, and not enough evidence to support contradicting those models. So, all that could be reasonably done was to take the modelling guidance, factor in the most similar historical cases in which the tropics behaved as the models predicted at the time and the relevant theory, and hope for the best.

I have a feeling climate change has, via expanding the Hadley cell and hence strengthening and inflating the subtropical highs northward, increased the readiness at which the atmosphere can take on this state by increasing the baseline westerly flow on the northern flanks of the subtropical highs.

I really hope I'm missing something there, because I don't fancy taking on many more seasons in which this interference pattern is playing havoc with the atmosphere! On the other hand, it's a great ingredient to have in play when it comes to fine summer weather in this country... you lose some, you win some! Hmm I'm definitely going to be missing something now aren't I? 

Met Office Hadley         5.8c.     Anomaly      2.2c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     5.78c     Anomaly      1.38c

Netweather                  6.02c     Anomaly      2.01c

Mount Sorrel                5.8c.     Anomaly      2.0c

Forest Town  Mansfield 6.3c    Anomaly    2.0c

Peasedown St John     7.8c     Anomaly    3.55c

Treviskey Redruth     7.6c.    Anomaly    0.97c.

mean of my 10 stations  6.47c. Anomaly 1.92c.       

Met Office Hadley         6.0c.      Anomaly     2.3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      5.94c    Anomaly     1.74c

Netweather                   6.35c    Anomaly     1.3c

Darwen                        5.3c      Anomaly      0.42c

Hexam                         5.8c      Anomaly      1.59c   

Mount Sorrel                6.0c.     Anomaly      1.45c.

Clevedon Weather         7.6c.    Anomaly       1.67c

Peasedown St John       8.0c     Anomaly       3.75c

Treviskey  Redruth       7.8c.     Anomaly       1.17c.

Mean of my 10 stations 6.69c  Anomaly     2.14c.         

It's starting to look like my guess is far too low for this month. Oh well!

Still a lot better than mine, at 3.35°C!